$* Statistical London Breakout Strategy *$

Is that the NY idea, only?

Remember the London idea is 1 hour timeframe.

Yes, my backtests, even using only 2-3 months to achieve the 90% quality basically looked like that…and the end result is the basic idea…:smiley:

OOops my bad, it’s true it was the NY open…

But yeah the back tests look great…

Is there any point of doing more than 2-3 months, even if you achieve 90% for longer periods (by downloading data from 2001)…?? What about walk forward analysis…??

cheers

Hi, Keepmypips. I’ve been struggling with this ‘GMT OFFSET’ thing for a long time too, and, to tell you the truth (at the risk of making a complete fool of myself), now I find it very simple. Here’s the way to go about it:

  1. find out the difference between your time and GMT (google for ‘gmt to est difference’, for instance, and you’ll find sites like: Convert: Eastern Time to GMT). Write down this difference or try to memorize it :slight_smile:

  2. open the market watch window of your MT4 platform and take note of the time there (left top corner)

  3. now you compare your brokers time to yours. This way, you’ll find the difference between his time and GMT (if you’re 5 hours behind GMT and he’s 2 hours ahead of you, than he’s 5 - 2 = 3 hours behind GMT, right?) - another way to find out the difference between his time and GMT is to just google for <your brokers name> + <gmt offset> or search their site (or use their live chat), if all this doesn’t work, berry your forex ambitions…

  4. Now comes the tricky part: if your brokers time is GMT, then there’s no offset (and no upset :slight_smile: - sorry 'bout that, lets move on… When your brokers time is, for instance, 3 hours behind of GMT (GMT -3) then you need to make him go forward 3 hours, right? Simple, uh? This is the part many people get wrong (or is it really just me!!! Oh my God!!), they think they have to match THEIR time to their BROKERS time! So they figure: “my time is 2 hours behind my brokers time, so i must correct this”, and so they go ‘GMT OFFSET = 2’. Instead, of course, they have to put in the time difference between THEIR BROKERS TIME and GMT. So, if his time is GMT -3, they have to fill in: GMT OFFSET = 3 (if his time is 2 hours ahead of GMT (GMT +2) then they have to fill in ‘GMT OFFSET = -2’ in order to make him go back 2 hours…

To sum up: GMT OFFSET = the number that corrects your brokers time difference to GMT (is it ‘GMT -2’, then you need to correct that by putting in ‘+2’, which is the same as just ‘2’, of course; is it ‘GMT +2’, then you correct this by filling out ‘-2’). So, in the end, GMT OFFSET only means: telling your EA how many hours your brokers time has to move back or forth in order to equal GMT. That’s it :slight_smile:

Hope this helps…

Ronald

It’s a good idea to test new ideas for a bit, like the London time, 55 pip TP, which is at 264 net pips since the beginning of the year. Also, we need to get EA bugs out, before risking big money. If you’re manually trading, the london idea is very good. The NY idea has been bombing since the beginning of February, so I’m not as excited about it as I once was.

~Ronald123…Nobody thinks you’re foolish, and thanks for explaining the GMT offset, yes, it can be confusing.

thanks, pipcompounder, just trying to give back a little for all the good I’ve received from you guys.

Cheers

Haha, GMT offsets have been confusing since the dawn of EA’s I think :smiley:

I’m very bound here right now but I think I will be able to at least fix the sunday problem this week for us!

Thanks Ronald…
I know I know… But really hate to think about it… :56:

Seriously thank you for taking the time to explain it so clearly.

You’re very welcome, Keepmypips :slight_smile:

Happy pipping!

Question: after being busy with other stuff, regarding trading, set up ‘pc_breakout_alpha_5’ again on my live account, two H1 charts, eurusd and gbpusd, but after the count down to 9 GMT… nothing happened. Aren’t their supposed to be some pending orders visible on my screen?





I’m using different magic numbers for eurusd and gbpusd.

Update (GMT 1:40pm): almost four hours later, still nothing…

Cheers,

Ronald

Yes they should be visible. Could you look into your “Expert” and “Journal” Tab if there are any errors?

Hi jsiebern,

no errors there… wonder what could be wrong…

Ronald

Hope you guys had a good weekend, I know I did.

Well, London has 30 pips in the bag, and the 60 pip is still open on the buy.
NY is not doing too good…not sure if it’s worth pursuing, as this month has been rather bad for it.

So, I have an idea for you guys to look at…tell me what you think.

What if we use the london idea with a 30 pip TP, and add another thing to it…
when the TP is hit, have a pending stop entry order in the same direction, 5-10 pips further away, with a 20-25 pip TP, and 10 pip or so SL. Then if it triggers and SL is hit, you still get 20 pips for the day, but if price continues, then you get an extra 20-25 pips. We would have to test to see if having the pending order placed again if SL is hit would work good or not for another try at the extra pips. If we held the re-entry to a max of one, so two total attempts for extra pips, then if SL gets hit twice, we are still plus 10 pips for the day.

What do you guys think about this?

PC… I like it a lot.

Seems to be getting a bit complicated,I know we want to squeeze every pip but if a fairly consistant hit of 30 pips is achieved that is good going for a mech strategy.
Also are you still only trading if previous candle is at least 30 pips,if so then with ADR about low to mid 90’s and having banked 30 I think looking for another 25 is pushing it a bit

London was double loss. Yesterday’s 60 pip trade (55 pips) floated around to close at today’s beginning session at +2 pips.

NY won today.

Seems to be getting a bit complicated,I know we want to squeeze every pip but if a fairly consistant hit of 30 pips is achieved that is good going for a mech strategy.
Also are you still only trading if previous candle is at least 30 pips,if so then with ADR about low to mid 90’s and having banked 30 I think looking for another 25 is pushing it a bit

I think we would have to code it to work successfuly (no bugs) in forward testing, then backtest it on MT5.

Today’s London has loss followed by 30 pip win, 55 pip sell trade still open.
NY had a very small loss, and the buy trade is open, had went up to +21 pips.

I just did some more visual backtesting with the London session, and found that using 45 pip TP yielded 346 pips, which is more than the 55 pip idea, which netted 260 pips…using time from Jan. 1, 2013 until end of 2nd full week of February.

But, then I got to looking at the chart, and noticed the difference in price levels between each London session opening. January had a lot of trending. February still has some good pip distance happening too, so I backtested what would happen if I were just put the TP really high, like 250 pips, and just let the EA close the trades at the beginning of the next London session and came up with 649 pips to date from Jan. 1, 2013!!! This amount of pips was just allowing one set of trades per day. Sometimes the price ranged, causing a double loss. It appears that the price, on average, moves enough to the next session to mitgate these losses, so we could allow an extra set of orders, should both SLs be hit.
This will be sort of a daily strategy using the hourly reference candle for entries. I think with the way the world market, and the European Union is going, we will see some big daily moves still this year, so I think I’m going to try this!

these two days im having loss… Losing back one third of my profit already… :frowning:

London 55 pip TP hit! netted 48 pips!

Ok, I’m so excited about this, I had to post just about this idea. So, yesterday’s London session trade opened at 1.3406x…and today’s london session’s reference candle closed at 1.3203x, [B]that’s 203 pips!!! [/B]Since Feb. started, using the session to session close idea, we would be [B]up 327 pips [/B]already! So, I’m going to continue testing this…it has way more pips in the bucket than the other TP ideas at the end of the month. I will be using all the same other settings, only changing the TP to be at 250 pips, so almost always the trade will stay open until the close of the next reference candle.

Today’s london sell came within a pip of 30 pip TP.
NY has an open buy…I’m not going to continue trading the NY idea, it continues to lose, and I’m really fired up about the session to session idea…I might start another thread on it, if it continues to pan out!