$* Statistical London Breakout Strategy *$

Yesterday’s Fundamentals where extraordinary and very high impacting. The GU hit a 2.5 year low. I wish this kind of movement was everyday.

@PC
Sounds like a solid idea! Can you use the EA as it is or would you need something changed?

Well, I need to test it with the oversized TP, and then if any hiccups show, I’ll bring them up.
So far, today, my maxSL of 30 pips was hit, so no open trades right now. I’ll have to think about either having a larger max SL, which means larger losses when hit, or re-entering the pending orders, which could have consequences of multiples losse. I think leaving the 30 pip maxSL will be best over the long run because the losses will be small, and when price moves like it did yesterday, we’ll have many pips in the pocket.

not going to trade NY session means off the EA after london close?

The london has it’s own 1 hour window. I closed the NY 15 minute TF window. Each had it’s own copy of the EA.

Now, London had a loss, and hit 30 pip, and 45 pip TPs…I would like to see price continue down before the EA auto-closes my session-to-session trade for the weekend…60 pips would be nice to make up for the last two losses…:smiley:

Can’t wait for next week for this session-to-session idea…:D…:D…:smiley:

the london sell closed at 22 pips, so net -8 loss for today on session-to-session.

Despite having a loss, london was good this morning. Hopefully the price hangs up here the rest of the day, +60 pips floating on the session-to-session idea…:smiley:

EDIT: session-to-session idea closed both trades at a loss…lot of range today!

I was very tempted to increase the buffer a bit over the weekend, and today is both making me kick myself for not doing it, and making me want to add 2 pips to each side…but this will increase potential loss amounts-if I do this, I will increase the max SL by 4 pips, to compensate.

What this would mean today is no sell loss, just a buy loss, and price would be +131 pips right now…oh well :34:

I have lost everytihng using the indicator. Can teach how to use? Since u always post winining
Reason of losing is due to TP not hit, SL all hit. Either Full sL hit or sl with 1 pip gain hit.

The tool is called an “Expert Advisor”, not an indicator. I would very much appreciate it if you could first learn the basics by yourself and then come back with further questions :slight_smile:

http://www.forex.sc/downloads/client/UpFX-v4.pdf

I had a quick look at this manual and seems decent enough. The EA itself has been explained several times back in this thread, just go back a few pages and you will find all you need :slight_smile:

So yesterday’s session-to-session was 1 pip away from netting 130 pips…ended up -36 pips. This morning’s London buy hit maxSL, but hasn’t triggered a sell (at least not yet). We’ll see what today brings later on, this week has lots of big news events, so the market should keep moving. (I wish it had these 200 pips swings all the time!!!)

EDIT: London ended up losing both ends…tomorrow’s another day.

Im asking pipcompounder not you. Its ok if you dont want to share/teach. Dun need to be sacastic to ask ppl if they know what is expert advisor or indicator. And even send a link on what is MT4.

Its ok since the owner dun want to teach. I tot babypips is a place to learn and not being HUMULIATED. I wont ask anymore to get humilated once again.

Hi, I’m sorry that you missunderstood me. If I would not want to share/teach I would not even have contributed my work to this thread! The post was in no way intended to humiliate or offend you, I’m really sorry that it did!

I just don’t believe in redundance, all the information you seek is already in this thread, it’s just a few pages back and I asked you to look for it! If you have any questions at all after reading through that I will be glad to answer you.

You have to forgive me for taking you as a rookie in MT4 based on your message. (The link was rather for learning about use of EA’s than MT4 itself)

So by any means, if you read the instructions I have given numerous times in this thread and THEN have a question I’m happy to work it out with you. Again: Sorry, no offense to you or your skills was meant.

Today’s London quickly lost both sides, again. But, the Euro is staying within this ~60 pip range, so there is going to be another huge move sometime soon, like a week ago. Hopefully it waits until tomorrow’s london, so we can ride it…:smiley:

I still think we could somehow tweak the entry! Maybe we could try some kind of channel breakout from a certain time on rather than a definite ref-candle. What do you think PC?

That idea is what turned me on to looking at using a candle as “the box”, or channel. I have looked at different ways of defining a “box” to trade a breakout, but a box by itself has a lot of fakeout problems. Granted, some days, like today, just range us out, and I think it best to take a max of 2 losses and wait for another day, another opportunity. What gave me the timing idea is everybody knows the London session moves the most money, especially when NY guys sit down at their desks to add to the “volume” (volatility). Now this week has been a bit rough, except monday, but the general premise holds true as an average over time that the london open tends to become a peak of a trend that ends up far away later that day from the open price. This difference is the area I’m trying to exploit. The things that are still against us, which I am trying to figure out how to get around are:

  1. price sometimes just barely triggers a trade, then goes the other way, and having a big buffer would solve this problem, but create another:
  2. the larger the ref candle (or box) gets, the more risk, and smaller reward.
  3. If we either try to have re-entries, then that’s more opportunity for more loss, on top of a double loss.
  4. If we try to shrink the ref candle, by having the opposite trade move closer, once a trade is started, then the SL is more likely to be hit.

So, it seems the best way is to step back and look at the big picture of what happens over a month’s time with a given strategy, and the only tweak I can think of is a slight increase in buffer size and maxSL. We are always at the market’s mercy when it comes to purely mechanical ideas, so some of this we just have to ride out.

Don’t get me wrong, if I would not believe in this idea of the ref-candle I would not have written this EA :wink:

Just trying to think “outside of the box” ( :wink: ) to maybe open a discussion for exploring other types of entries we can try alongside the one!

Yes, I agree we must be able to find a way to get around some of these problems. I have thought about limit orders inside of the ref candle to catch ranges, but the SL would be a bit difficult, and while it would work this week, I think it would lose most of the time.

I have thought about having the reference candle’s original pending orders set, but when an order is triggered, have the SL and opposite order much closer…but this would cause a wreck with whipsawing…just today the price has sat on the bottom of the ref candle, going back and forth, then went to the top of it, going back and forth…today’s just not a good day to trade.

We know that the Euro tends to move in 25-30 pip increments, which is the same as the average ref candle, so on most days, if we lost, it was only once, and then a TP.

Part of the advantage of straddling is we don’t have to worry about predicting direction, which can really change around.

The EA seems to working great, with the Sunday issue as the only exception, so Jonathan, do you think it’s a good idea to try for MT5 version for backtesting purposes? Do you think Ninjatrader would be better for backtesting than MT5?
I think we can save a little bit of time backtesting some ideas, for instance the effect of having a large buffer (greater than 10 pips) on the session-to-session idea.

Yes, I think so as well. I think I’ll have some time this weekend to develop an MT5 prototype and fix the Sunday issue.