Why have I not found a winning strategy ! I have bee trading on and off for a couple of years now but without luck. Why does it feel like it is impossible to find a winning strategy? When I am talking about strategy no mumbo jumbo like fibernache and things like that. Just something simplet like 200 sma for trend, CCI for entry with overbought oversold and a RR 1.5. would probably be smart to use a tsl to minimize losses but still have a good RR. Is such a strategy impossible??? Have looked for a long time, still looking
The approach is not over-complicated, and the objective r:r is not too ambitious so these are good things. But the 200MA won’t give you a perspective for a trend for trading, the period is far too long: its a tool for investors.
I’m not able to comment on how reliable CCI is but I haven’t heard its the secret to success. I hope someone with experience using it can comment. Meantime I distrust using a signal from any technical indicator to signal entries.
I’m not using indicators so i can’t help you with your specific criteria. But generally speaking, i’ve learned that strategies with a high RRR tend to have long drawdown and breakeven times. How long did you test your strategies? Chances are that you tested a period which wasn’t performing well.
I for example had a 1:2 RR strategy that returned 26R in three months but lost 6R in a DD and traded breakeven over the next two and a half months.
I paused trading this strategy live and despite it’s performance went up again, i chose to spend my time on strategies with higher win rates.
So don’t give up. Try to test your strategies with different management styles too. Maybe a RRR of 1:1 and cuttng losses before getting stopped out improves your success? My best trades didn’t start with a retracement. And after i learned on babypips that a known pro trader has a similar trading style like me and saw that he cuts his losses quick and takes profits as soon as price retraces i realised that entries weren’t my problem after all.
I mentioned CCI just as an example Here I am thinking about to identify when the momentum is shifting back to the trend, that’s all. Not trying to find a top or bottom
Have been trading on all timeframes with a RR of 1.5 with a tsl on the last swing
There are of course two types of r:r ratio - the target r:r when the trade is planned and opened, and the actual r:r when the trade is finally closed. Only the actual r:r counts.
I have posted regulalrly that an actual r:r of only 1:1.5 is enough to double your capital every year, with a win rate of only 55% and just 20 trades per month.
It’s frustrating, I get it. Finding a winning strategy takes time and persistence. Simplicity can be effective. Your idea of combining indicators like SMA, CCI, and risk management is smart. It’s not impossible, but remember, consistency is key. Stay patient, refine your approach, and keep learning from both wins and losses. You’re on the right path – success is a journey
There really is no set in stone winning strategy that will work for every trader. This is because the biggest component of any strategy is the trader themselves and their emotions etc.
The only advice I can give is keep learning new strategies and work on your emotive actions. For a strategy to work you need to be 100% confident that it will work without any manual intervention.
You should be able to do your analysis and then just set your trade with a stop loss and take profit and then just let it run.
That’s some solite advise their. But then again how do I find that edge!
To find the edge you just need to keep on training and educating yourself. The training never stops, remember that trading the markets is by far the hardest job within the financial sector. If it was easy everyone would be doing it!
The edge comes from planning a position with a high probability of the correct direction. Note that you can identify a future entry price level and/or set an entry order rather than entering live and immediately.
Two reasons to buy - price is in an uptrend or it’s in a downtrend. Buying in an uptrend has a low probability of getting stopped out because price fell but probably means holding longer: buying in a downtrend has a higher probability of being stopped out but could mean much profit in a shorter time.
Once again that sounds great and logical. BUT From some years of experience trying to play the probability game I have miserably failed. Only taken trades that aligned with the trend, usually 200 ema or 50 ema, using oscillators to time the trade, have a RR of minimum 1.5 and use a tls to minimize losses when I wrong After 1-2 weeks the losses pile up and I come to the conclusion that there is no edge with this strategy
Forget the 200MA and indicators. Trade D1.
As a template to follow go to the D1 chart for CHF/JPY, look at the daily bars since the 20EMA crossed above the 50EMA. After each lower daily high it would have been simple to set a new buy order and wait for it to be triggered. If price did not rise the next day but printed a new lower daily high, the entry order could simply be dragged lower until it was triggered.
Apart from the danger of setting a stop-loss too close to entry, how could this not have worked?
I could say the same about 5 of my last strategies, all logical and with an clear edge. But as soon as I have traded them for a while the losses come. If your strategi is as simple and profitable as you think, then you should be a millioner. With some leverage and money manegement it should be easy to compound an account to a couple of millions. If a strategy like that can be testet and show a profit then congrats and I back down
Back down from where? I thought you were losing money and wanted to find a winning strategy.
Yes that´s what I want, sorry for the misunderstanding
Maybe a problem is in back test method, how do you do it?
Sometimes it comes down to realistic expectations. What do you consider a “winning strategy”? Strategies come and go as the markets change. A strategy that worked really well last year does not work at all this year, or maybe even this month. Every strategy can be summarised as “you win some, you lose some” and so the trick becomes can you win enough money when you win something to cover your losses when you lose something?
Jason Alan Jankovsky.
Read his books.Especially the psychology one. it is excellent
I don´t backtest, have found out that it doesn’t work. Just trade with minimum lot size and use propper money management