Yesterday i broke the longest loosing streak i ever had since becoming profitable. I lost 6 trades before i had a winning trade again.
Despite i already knew that my strategy will produce long loosing streaks every now and then, because my win rate is oscillating between 40 and 60 percent, it had a very very hard time sitting out the loosing streak.
What helped me getting in the right mindset again was this streak calculator i found online: https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-calculators/streak-calculator/
It is made for sports betting but of course we traders can also use it. After 79 trades since becoming profitable, with a loosing rate of 50,63 % my odds to encounter my 6 trade loosing streak were 47.976 %.
It was a relief for me to see that and i will use this streak calculator to assess my risk/trade in the future, too.
Very useful tool i just wanted to share.
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I use ForexFactory for every of my account statement.
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Good for you. It is important to have plenty of data and statistics. I dont like to use third party services and just calculate everything myself. Myfxbook doesnt even support my broker. Idk about ForexFactory.
do you know how many loss trades in a row you can achieve trading via this strategy?
My risk is between 1 and 2 %. So it would take between 50 and 100 loosing trades to eat up my account. I currently have a 50.63 % chance of loosing whenever i place a trade. I will make around 200 trades a year.
If i now use the streak calculator to look upon the next 100 years (20000 trades) it says i have a 1.201 % chance of encountering a 20 trades loosing streak. That would be very bad luck but my account would survive. I have a 99.998 % chance of encountering a 10 trade loosing streak so i would say this is the expected maximum.
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so you don’t know how many losing trades you can achieve BEFORE start trading this strategy
thanks for your helpful posts, @Worker_Bee 
people need also to be aware that in practice, consecutive losing runs are not usually the problem
the problem is usually long losing periods with a regularly repeating pattern of “several losers interspersed by only one winner,” and the risk factors for this happening are usually something between 5 and 10 times as high as the equivalent risk for consecutive losers
a sequence of results like LLLLLWLLLLLWLLLWLLLLLLWLLLLLWLLLLLLWLLLLLWLLLLL contains no more than 6 consecutive losers anywhere, but it can still devastate most people’s accounts, and it’s far, far more common than is suggested by looking at tables of “consecutive loser risk”
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Well i forward tested my strategy and had the data to calculate the odds like i did now but i didn’t. I knew that a 10 trade loosing streak would be bad luck. But i didn’t know that my odds to encounter one would be around 10% in a year.
Whats your point?
did you change anything to get a new profitable transaction?
No! This would be very foolish. I just took one loss after another believing in my strategy.
But i already admitted, that it got extremely hard in the end and the streak calculator just helped me stay true to my rules.
ok, it is very good 
do you have only one strategy ?
Thanks, but i have a different opinion on that matter. I dont use EA’s. I am a discretionary, manual trader. So i have only limited time to trade. I cant trade multiple strategies at once. This one strategy is already eating up around 2 hours a day.
sure, it is your trading and your funds
Exactly. Remember, there is not only one way to success. And if i would use EA’s i surely would do it like you.
you don’t have to use EA’s to trade via portfolio 
It’s great that you have faith in your strategy, and important to know it inside and out. Do you know why it loses that other 40-50% of the time?
I use a strategy on the 4H TF’s that works well in trending conditions. However, when prices are range bound, it does poorly, so I have to make adjustments such as widening my SL’s or moving to a different TF.
Therefore I have 3 different strategies depending on market conditions.
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It loses that other 50% of the time because my pattern doesnt always work. After a momentum move, short pullback and a break of the high/low i need price to continue 2 times the length of the pullback and not to reverse. If price does that in more than 33% of the time am profitable.
The same for me. My strategy, which I developed and refined carefully following a definite trading idea which I learned from my mentor, works differently according to how I manage the position I open (R/R, trailing stop profit/no trailng stop profit and so on). In this period, for example, I work quite well if I set a 1/1 R/R but when the market is more trending I can work well with a higher R/R ratio. So, I could say that actually I have many strategies according to the actual management of a single trading principle. My 2 cents of course, I’m a newbie and I like to listen to more experienced fellow traders.