I’ll be curious to see if Phil took this long, knowing that it would need to “use” 420-ish of the 460 ATR to hit TP.
with this strategy i think the risk of missing a winning trade far outweighs the risk of taking a losing trade, & it is important to remember that you only need to reach BE on the 2nd trade to be safe which this week was 285 pips or just over 60 % of the 460 atr
if price has to reach anything approaching the weekly ATR14 to BE on the 2nd trade, then i would consider that a valid reason not to take
I made my first win as well. 
You need about 4-5 consecutive losses to erase a big win not including BE. Were there that many losses preceeding this win? I have only been following for about 4 weeks.
Yes. there has been about 5 losses in the last few weeks, I beleive you missed some of the losses from following your own brokers price feed instead of those which phill has been posting
Very good points; however, in my backtesting I’ve been more conservative as far as entering the second trade of the week and I think Phil has been (in both backtesting and live trading) as well. It is possible that even though your reasoning is sound, in practice it might lead to too many losers and not enough extra winners. Something I’ll keep an eye on when I get back to my backtesting.
Hi guys!
I’m back from vacation. I stayed a week longer than I was planning too, and a lot has happened since I last read the forums, but I’ll comment on a few things real quick before I head off to bed…
First off a big thanks to Cprao for posting the numbers when I wasn’t around to do it this week!!
To Orpips: I would have taken the second trade this week, unfortunately I was out in the woods with no electricity (or computer, for that matter) so I missed out on both trades. I’m currently at 14.5% profit for the year with this system. Had I been able to trade Sunday I’d be at 26.4%. That just goes to show that missing trades is a bad thing with a system like this. 
To Tonymand: I don’t take anything you said as criticism at all! If you can come up with a more profitable way of doing it then great! The reason I use half the 14 week ATR as a target is simply because that number gave the highest profit in my backtesting. I agree 14 weeks is a long time, and 14 weeks really doesn’t make any sense, but it was the best so I went with it.
I backtested a ton of other TP values but they just didn’t come out to be as profitable over a 5+ year period. Unfortunately (and stupidly) I didn’t save my other results so I don’t have data for the other numbers. It’s been around 9 months ago since I did the backtesting so I’m not even sure if I tested 2x as a TP. It’s a nice, even number so I’m guessing I did, but I don’t remember. I agree 2x would have been much more profitable over the last few months, but over the years I still think 1/2 the ATR is the way to go.
But then again if you, or anyone else, wants to go for 2x then by all means go for it. My way is definitely not the only way to make money, I just think it’s the way to make the most money!
Hi Phil,
Welcomed back and it’s nice to see your post again.
To me, everyone can comes out a profitable way if they want, even a newbie like me can do so but the most important thing is to be discipline and never give up when once fail, “Quitters never win and winners never quit”
Cheers!
Hey Phil, welcome back hope ya had a cracking holiday! Wish I could just stay an extra week sometimes!
It’s my pleasure… First of all many thanks for introducing such a simple yet profitable strategy.
Phil838,
This is my first post on Babypips & I’m an fx newbie. I’ve read this thread with interest.
I figure it’s easy to test a 2R PT. To get to BE or a win under your original system rules, you’d at least need to get a 2R return.
Therefore, to test a 2R PT, all you need to do is download your spreadsheet from the first post and substitute every BE or winning trade with a 2R return.
I did this and my calcs show the total pip return goes to 13129 from 7907.
Regards
Sean
Great idea, Seans. I never thought of that! I was planning to run back through and backtest 2R from scratch, so you saved me some work.
The only problem is that I ran through the spreadsheet and modified all the BE’s and 1/2 ATR winners to 2R winners and I end up with a reduction of almost -2000 pips instead of your 5000 pip increase!!
I think the problem is that you changed every “0” in the “Pips” column to a winner. Sometimes a zero isn’t because of a breakeven, it’s from not trading.
In order to get 13000+ pips from the spreadsheet you’d have to be changing the weeks with two zeros into two 2R winners. In actuality you’d be getting one 2R winner and one “no trade.” Two winning trades in one week would be very rare, even at 2R. If you tried it most weeks you’d end up with a 2R winner and a 1R loser. 
It was good thinking though! You could have easily found a more profitable way to trade this, so if you have any more ideas don’t hesitate to test them out…
This weeks trades are:
Long: 1.6378
Short: 1.6312
The SL is 56 pips and the TP is 228.
We had a winner last week so cross your fingers for another this week!!
yes!, i got the same numbers as yours. started to get the right things.
looking forward to winning trades.
Cheers!
Welcome back from your vacation.
Happy Trading everybody
Welcome back Phil, hope vacation was great!!!. Last week I was one pip off what CPRAO posted, This week I’m two pips off your entries. With a small difference like that is it the brokers we use? I use GFT dealbook and am in Eastern Standard Time.
Yeah, a pip or two (or even 5) is just the small difference in broker price feeds. You can go with my numbers, or with your numbers, it doesn’t really matter. If you go with your numbers there will be times I win and you lose, but there will also be times you win and I lose. It all evens out over many months/years.
One pip can make a difference though! About two months ago Lavaman had a winning trade when most everyone else was stopped out by one pip! He was successful because of his different broker price.
Long’s triggered. looks like the stock market is also poised for a big bang morning!
Hi phil838,
Can I be forgiven for wanting to get out when it hits the upper trendline?
First off, thanks Phil for posting your strategy. I only came across the thread a few days ago so am still playing around with it.
I use NinjaTrader with the forex.com/GAIN feed so I coded a quick strategy to get some backtest results. I changed a few things, but the essence of Phil’s idea is still there.
I use the 4H chart and the 9PM Sunday candle (there is a 5PM opening candle but it is basically useless, the 9PM is the last for Sunday). I enter and manage trades off the 1M chart (gives more realistic backtesting results in NinjaTrader).
For some reason the weekly datafeed doesn’t work on my end, so I couldn�t get a weekly ATR. I’ve found that the ATR(14) for the 4H chart works OK for a TP. During backtesting I also found that 15 pips above/below the Sunday high/low works better for me (Phil uses 10 pips). The SL is set to the opposite 15 pip point (so if you are going long the SL is 15 pips under the low).
So its basically the same from there out, if the price breaks the 15 pip barrier I enter a trade, if it reaches the profit target I get out. If it hits SL I reverse the trade and double the original TP.
As I said, I only coded this up in the past couple of days so am still playing with it, thought I would share the results anyway.
I wouldn’t automatically get out at the trendline, but if you did want to break the rules you could probably be forgiven for getting out at the trendline if you see strong reversal signs.
If it went up to the trendline, bounced off, and formed a dojo or IB I’d probably break the rules and get out too! Or, at the least, move my stoploss up.
But for all you brand-new newbie traders out there (not you s050399b) I’d stick to the rules if you’re not comfortable with trendline and candle patterns yet. This system works just fine without tinkering with it, but it can work better with a little “rule bending” every now and then.