This is surprising !!Who is your broker ? Mine are from Ibfx.
My bad, I was spacing out 
Iām using ibfx too, and all my numbers match yours exactly (as they should), except for the low which was 6172, not 6176.
Not a problemā¦ Orders are still not executedā¦ So you can still, if not already doneā¦ 4 pips hopefully does not make much differrence ā¦
Short order kicked in.
Hi guys,
another profitable week for me with this strategy. Now as i mentioned before i only go for a 3:1 profit so since my stop loss was 40 pips i am already out at 120 pips at 16055. I also move my SL to BE at a profit of stop loss size.
This is my method which i am confortable with. Phils management method is also great and very profitable, its all about what works for your psychology.
Cheers.
Hi Steviedarian
sorry if this has been asked already but have you backtested your method & if so how does it compare to phils original template, I have suffered several losses & a breakeven so far since starting sunday breakout about a month ago, Still waiting for my first winning trade
I was stopped out for 31 pips profit by my trailingstop limit. Happy that not lost anythingā¦ I also removed my BUY order. Hope rest all are cruising wellā¦
Stopped out at BE.
Total range so far has been about 195, so hitting a long target would mean 425, and with an ATR of 460 that seems too close for me, so Iām cancelling the long.
So if i get stopped out and i go in the other direction, I would double my initial target. So like today we got stopped out at break even, and we were targeting 228 on the short trade. So if we did have a long trade I would target around 450. Can one someone explain this to me please, this is the only part of the system I donāt get. Thank you.
I had moved my stop to positive 50 pips and got stopped out there. Better then the losses over the past couple of trades.
Kent your orginal take profit I believe would remain the same for the 2nd trade, in this case the long trade. You would still target the 228 pip profit. I do not know if I can explain the techincal aspect of whyā¦but each trade is half of the potential range.
I disagree. The low this week is 1.60335. With ATR of about 460, that means an average chance of reaching a high of 1.64935 which is higher than this weekās long TP. Having said that however, there is no reason why price would stay around the average range being a scale-less random phenomenon. It could go way higher or way lower.
My stop is now at BE on the long trade
First I am not doubting the returns from this method. I have been through the past data that Phil has supplied. However its based on a misconception. In choosing half the weekly ATR he is looking for a reasonable profit target but this makes no sense
The only range of importance is the difference (roughly) between the close of the weekly candle and the maximum high and low of the next weekly candle. The overall range might be 400 but this could easily be made up of 200 in each direction
The appended table shows these differences which I will discuss in the next post
I have displayed in 1 column the maximum distance between candle close and the high and low the following week (whether long or short). Notice some features about this. Although the mean is 367 it is highly skewed. Without boring you with the maths and using mode and median for skewed data you can show that the most common range is 300-400 and within that the results are 303, 304, 305, 324, 376. Hence the middle figure is 305. Hence your target (assuming half of this) should be in the region of 152 to fit the ideals that I think Phil has
I started charting this a few weeks ago. When I looked closely at Phils results it seemed that a 2x target was more profitable (by far) than the one he set although I wasnt always sure whether a zero meant no trade or a breakeven trade having reached the 2x target
These are my results so far. Using Phils approach -6R and using a 2x approach +6R although I accept the current long is still open. 0-2 simply means it stopped out having reached a 2R target
The final thing to think about is that 14 weeks is a long time. Using 4 weeks drops the range by a 100, (367 to 267 - see table). The candles of course show that this more accurately reflects the current market. This suggest a lower target still in the range of 130 (or 2-3R)
As I said this is offered only for thought and discussion, not to criticise Phil in any way
So tony mand your saying by using a 2x to 3x target instead of of a 6x the system would be more profitable and would take less lossās, am I correct.
Iāve been busy with other stuff and havenāt yet gotten back to my backtesting, but the backtesting Iāve done (2008 and 2009) and that I intend to do (back to 2000) includes data such as max potential profit reached for each trade, etc, so I would definitely be running the numbers to find the most profitable targets.
Off the top of my head Iām thinking that a 2R target would not have been as profitable for the 18 months of 2008-2009 as Philās 1/2 ATR, but of course Iād have to look back through to verify. I just donāt remember a ton of BEs (2R target hit), and the average winner was 4R+. Of course even if a fixed 2R target doesnāt end up being quite as profitable, itās entirely possible that many would be better off sticking with it anyway, as a higher winrate would be much easier to trade psychologically.
I believe so yes and thats why I am collecting forward data on this over the next 6 months or so
This weeks long trade just made it past the finishing post for the full target profit by just about 10 pips before turning back. My first win with the sunday breakout, but with so many losses in recent weeks i still need 1 more to get back in profit
Tonymand good work from you as usual, these systems can only benefit from other ideas & studies thrown into the mix, I look foreward to phils thoughts & orpips backtesting.