it’s all down to whether the 6400 holds…still hanging on!!!
I’m stopped out at 6386. my luck was pip perfect as it rebounded at that exact spot. either that, or because my $5bn stop loss order turned the market back… 
Mine missed the SL by one pip and is still going. It’s at +40 pips now. 
I’m glad I didn’t move my SL up. I thought about doing that when it bounced directly off the trendline but decided to stick to the rules!
Hi Phil,
If my target is only 100pips per week and i exited everytime when the trade hit 100, will there be any unforeseen issues that I will face in long run? 
Pls advise.
Thanks
Yeah, if you consider losing money an unforeseen issue…
Seriously though, I’m 95% sure this strategy will end up losing money in the long term if you go with a set TP.
The main problem is different market conditions. You might have made more money in the last few months (or even this whole year) using 100 pips, but in years like 2008 you would have lost big time. You need some type of criteria that moves with the markets, like ATR, ADR, candle sizes or something along those lines.
If you still want to change the numbers make sure you backtest it over at least a few years. If it comes out profitable then go for it, but I don’t think it will with a static TP.
hi phil is it possible to share with us your results if they are on excel? would like to calculate the probabilities to reconfirm. give me something to do till next sunday…
Nice clean bounce off the trendline to keep those of us who weren’t stopped out still in the game!
…and now a bounce off the overhead downtrend line. Looks like we’re squeezing into a wedge. Will the breakout take us to profit or stop us out? Who knows?
My spreadsheet is in the zip file on the first post of this thread. I just updated it and it’s current as of last week.
Also, I don’t remember if I mentioned this or not but back when Orpips and I were discussing backtesting results I found some backtesting errors I made in 2008. Apparently while backtesting mid 2008 I switched to a 1H chart to look at something and forgot to switch back for a few months!! So what I thought was the Sunday candle was really only half of it and my stoplosses were smaller than they should have been!! I corrected the problem on the new spreadsheet, and it changed the systems backtesting results over the 5 year period to be about 400 pips lower (7500 instead of 7900).
It’s a small mistake that doesn’t really change the systems profitability, but I thought I should point it out in case anyone is using the old excel file to help with their own backtesting.
Hi phil, thanks, running through ur spreads, Sunday breakout gives a sharpe ratio of 1.2 (since 04), and actually, comparable to cowabunga (since 08, which i backtested). But we know which one gives us more time to take our holidays!
by comparison, S&P 100 yr historical sharpe is 0.4, and even Madoff based on my readings “window dressed” a sharpe of 2.5 (with 11% return, so extraordinarily low volatility beyond realms of possibility).
caveat is that don’t rely on my figures and run them yourselvs, as sharpe fluctuated over the 4 yrs depending on which period you took.
–
Ok, i’ve calculated the sharpe ratios for all the years:
05 - 1.5 (excellent, could maybe get into nominated for a hedge fund award…)
06 - 1.4
07 - 0.94
08- 1.5
09- 0.78 (a few more months data to come, implying we ought to see better results in coming months to boost sharpe to ‘normal’ levels?!)
I started my trading career trading the Cowabunga system and while I did make money with it, that was my main complaint with the system. Taking and monitoring 2 to 3 trades per day (mostly in the middle of the night in my timezone) was simply too much work for the amount of profit I was getting. Trading higher timeframe, “once-per-week” systems like this make just as much money with a fraction of the work.
That’s assuming you want to call any type of forex trading “work”, since I do all mine from my couch.
while cowabunga is intensive, its performance is uncorrelated to sunday, so i think both systems compliment well, paricularly for indoor folks living in london/asian timezone.
thanks phil for sharing this system.
I just got stopped out at breakeven. 
Like I said before, I won’t entering the short trade this week.
Better luck next week!!
ok, plain water this week. maybe frappucino next week…
but more importantly, we didn’t lose money!
giving this a bit more thought, the results which I computed (which are excellent) have assumed trades from taking both sides, regardless correct? is that how you’ve backtested this, phil?
No. Unfortunately when I did the backtesting I had no idea that it would eventually end up on the Babypips forums and other people would be analyzing it, so I didn’t differentiate between no-trades and breakevens. I just used a “0” in the pips column to represent both.
When I backtested it I used MT4, pressed F12 to move it ahead one candle at a time, and judged from the current situation whether a second trade was taken or not, but there’s no way to tell a no-trade from a breakeven on the spreadsheet now without going back and looking.
i.e. we should take the trades regardless in order to get the results in your excel spread?
because if we pick and choose, the system becomes discretionary.
The logic of the system itself is not clear, though it works for G/U.
I am wary of apply logic (I do understand the ATR argument) to something that is not clearly logical…so why tweak a system that appears to be doing fine…
No, what I meant was that I was discretionary on the entries on the spreadsheet, I just didn’t record whether a zero pip trade was a discretionary none-entry of the second trade or a failed trade that stopped out at breakeven.
And, believe it or not, there is some logic to this system. Read this post from two months ago… 301 Moved Permanently
OHHHHH…I get it now…!!! Yes, agreed, and thanks for clarification. it justifies not entering today’s short which was hit, and which incidentally would be a failed trade.
Hi phil838,
With google wave, does it mean that you can stop paying $20 per month?
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