Yes indeed phil. again the word ‘discipline’ comes into play this week. If folks managed to keep the trade, you’d be up 167pips now, on the way to 225pips TP, and it is Wed. The price had gone to almost 200 pips and back down now, and maybe it is time to panic?. :eek:
Now how to get that [B]discipline [/B]? How to psych to let myself see this bundle of $ evaporate if it hits BE? How do stop myself from closing this trade? How do I sit on my hands? Can you put a cake in front of a dog and trust he won’t eat it? Tell me how to get [B]DISCIPLINED[/B]!!
Phil, Great to know that you are back… We are very happy that you are back. Feeling very bad about your accident. Hope you will recover soon and can type in both the hands.
When I first started I was really bad about closing my trades too early because I didn’t want to lose. What finally broke me from doing that was looking back at my trading logs and figuring up how much more money I would have had if I hadn’t closed my trade early.
I think it’s just something you have to learn for yourself. I can tell you that you’re losing money in the long run by cutting trades short, but it won’t really sink in until you can review about 6 months worth of trades that you took and see how much money you really lost by cutting your winners short.
Once you can see the statistics that [B]you [/B]figured using [B]your [/B]own trades, it really doesn’t become an issue of discipline anymore… It’s an issue of learning from your mistakes.
It’s like a child and a hot stove… You keep telling them over and over again that they’ll get burned, but they just don’t listen. But then, one day, they get a really bad burn and you don’t have to tell them to be careful anymore. Once they see (and feel) it happen then they know the danger is real, and they simply stop playing around the stove.
I have make some modification in order to eleminate the Japan-session-start fake-out spike, I will draw my boxes at GMT 0100, lower RR though - visual backtesting looks good.
I checked it out and I LOVE the concept, but I don’t like the idea of giving them my account information.
You can actually place trades with your broker through Currensee’s service! That’s way too much power for me to give to a third-party. It’s not really Currensee stealing my money I’m worried about, but more the fact that they are a brand new service (still in beta testing) and the bugs aren’t worked out yet. All it takes is for some programmer to put a decimal point in the wrong place and you just bought 50 lots instead of 5!
Once they go live I’m going to open up a new micro account with $50 and sign up with them just to check it out. That way they won’t have access to my real trading account.
Yep, I was only a few days away from opening it up when I had my accident. The website is still there and ready to go… complete with voice chat, screen sharing software, and a blog I’d already filled with pages and pages of my forex ramblings.
I’m putting it on hold though until I finish my new project. When I was stuck in bed for those weeks my wife bought me some voice recognition software (Dragon Naturally Speaking 10 - I’d highly recommend it) and my microphone and I wrote a 75 page book on forex trading!
It needs a lot of editing (voice software is only 98% accurate) and I still have to take all the screenshots for my pictures, so I’m working on that now and when I’m done I’ll go back to the chatroom project… but I might just abandon it for Currensee if it turns out to be trustworthy.
I am using my tweaked version (boxending at GMT0100 instead of GMT0000), and I am usually on GBPUSD and GBPJPY - and all other pairs ending with JPY depending which gives the highest RR
It contains a risk lot calculator, which you input the amount of $$ u want to risk and it shows u the lot to buy.
Also modified to show current weekly ATR in % terms of the ATR(14) weekly, as I will remove all pending orders when current weekly ATR is 40% of the ATR(14).
Phil is using GBPJPY for Nick’s scalping, so he is using GBPUSD for the Sunday breakout; he mentioned it before, because of the rulez that doesn’t do hedging or something.
I only use it on GBP/USD, but there’s no reason it shouldn’t work on other pairs.
I stick to the one pair for two reasons… Number one is that most pairs correlate so much that with a pure statistical strategy like this you’ll end up either winning or losing on all the pairs at the same time. Other than the fact that you can spread the risk around a few different pairs to help with the problem of getting stopped out by one or two pips there’s really no benefit to making the same trades on multiple pairs.
Secondly, even before the new NFA regulations, my broker, Oanda, didn’t allow multiple trades at the same time on the same pair. Since this is the lowest performing of the three methods I trade (although it is beating NickB scalp lines right now), I don’t want all my pairs tied up for 1-3 days per week where I can’t take any other trades on them.
btw, I finally found 2 broker that do MT4 trading + micro lots in Australia!!
GoMarkets + Halifax
both of them don’t do GMT0 timezone, guess I still need IBFX
GoMarkets is purely MT4, no web, btw, there’s MT4 mobile version
GoMarkets need u to connect to a dynamic dns server + port, my office don’t allow port stuffs, I think I’m going with Halifax
also in technology circles, anyone using dynamic dns server from dnydns seemed to be of a smaller company or setup, so I am a bit wary of going with them.
Halifax doesn’t have a $$$$ to be risk calculated for u on the screen - I had to write my own indicator with Sunday breakout
Not to contradict my last post against trading this on multiple pairs… but to tell the truth the idea to trade this on the less common pairs such as NZD/JPY had never occured to me.
If I had an indicator to quickly figure up my lot size so I was still risking 2% of my account per week, and backtesting to prove it works on other pairs (I believe it will, but I want proof) I probably would trade this on the lesser traded pairs that I never trade on anyway. Then I could stop worrying about losing trades by one or two pips, because the bad luck would only happen on some of the pairs, not all of them.
I might even break my “EA’s are evil” rule and use one to help open up the trades if I were to trade this on lots of pairs at once…
What have you done in the way of backtesting, s05? Are we sure this method works on pairs like NZD/JPY and CHF/JPY?
No, I haven’t backtest any of them. I was more interested to get the indicator going for GBPJPY and GBPUSD, and usually these 2 has the highest RR, and grabbed all the pairs that are ending with JPY (moves the same way), so as to compare which pair that offers the highest RR to deal. But GBPJPY and GBPUSD have the highest RR.
Do you know how to write EA? I have no idea how/where to start…I read the MT4 official document. So complicated…
Nothing secret. Just the same old Sunday Breakout, NickB scalps, and price action analysis like I wrote about in my ebook. I’m just going into a lot more detail in the book.
I’m leaving out the NickB method though. I’m explaining the concept of trading momentum bursts over S+R lines, but I’m not laying out the method since it belongs to Nick and not to me.
I have to admit I’m thinking about trying to get it published and into bookstores. I’m a published author, but not in the forex field and my publisher doesn’t do trading books so it probably won’t happen. If not I’m posting it here on Babypips free to the world!
No no, all pairs ending with JPY move the same way. I just grabbed it to compare and take the 2 pairs that offeres highest RR.
the analogy is:
flipping a coin is 50% head, 50% tail
if head = lose = -1
and tail = win = +2
long term = winning
we know that price “consolidates” (maybe not the right word) and will trend strongly up or down on Monday + fake-out trend during the 1st hour of Japan session opening, then…
