Sunday Breakout Strategy

[tonymand]

For anyone who avoided the stop out the short was profitable this week. I have a + 9R return since I began tracking the strategy pretty much in line with Phils backtest

[gif]

Yes the system is good! looking at reports back to 2004 from 260 +/- trades only 5 has a profit racio of less than 2, this means that if your SL was 20 then only 5 had a less then 40 pips chance of profit, and the average stays on TP = 6SL wich is very good, even if you have a loss you can always profit the loss, profit the tp (2sl) and even take some extra.

the only thing that could use abit of work up is the SL and monday since most of the time theres double loss because of markets waves!

one more time thanks for this great share phill

[mumpips]

Hi Phil,

Sorry for asking this question again if it has been answered b4.

In the trending mkt, we will follow the rules that you have set, what abt when mkt is ranging, will you bend the rules like take profit earlier or change your SL % or etc etc…

[s050399b]

yes and no. il explain for the server they are, for your metatrader client they arent. metatrader client builds history with imcoming data tick, if you lag abit, metatrader will not build the last tick and will prioritise the most recent, and what happens is that if you use logic flags sometimes orders wont trigger and other orders wont be closed because even if the ea executes every single tick if data is missing the code is strict and nothing will happen and in this case (if <= value -> close) if theres no thick even if it was there it wont close.

if you use metatrader flags the order is already there (pending orders) what happens is even if you miss that tick it doesnt matter, the server has all values in correct orders and there and for real every value is check so your order will be more “real” and will be opened or closed.

im not good at explaining, anyway feel free to ask more questions.

could you show me a piece of code which make use of the flags?

Will you publish your code?

[s050399b]

2 - im making mine adaptable to any broker so that everyone can use in any broker they would like, and im even building something for much later, im gonna place the “real broker (your primary broker since many people dont use IBFx has main) + IBFx” working together exchanging info in case someone wants to keep track of those values, it will be better and worst in some stuff but yes it is possible.

Are you saying that it’s possible to program to read data from IBFX demo and throw orders at another MT4 broker account?

I find that some MT4 brokers don’t have weekend prices…

[s050399b]

You need a flag to check if the BE point has already been changed, and to make sure it’s only changed once, otherwise the EA is going to change it again everytime the price moves.

It’s a bug that wouldn’t hurt the EA since it’s being changed to the same value over and over, but it’s still a bug.

Other than that it looks great!

looks better this way?

1. find the closest sunday candle and draw a box and SL TP with it
   =====> set inMarket, OSP_Buy_inMarket, OSP_Sell_inMarket, OSP_Buy_inMarket_BE, OSP_Sell_inMarket_BE = false
   =====> after this is done, do not do it again
   =====> this should probably be put in the init module

2. if the Day=Monday, and 0100 hour candle is just formed
   =====> draw the box with SL and TP
   =====> set inMarket flag = true

3. if inMarket flag is true
   =====> if Ask price >= OSP_Buy, send in buy order at ask price, with SL/TP, set OSP_Buy_inMarket flag = true
   =====> if Bid price <= OSP_Sell, send in sell order at bid price, with SL/TP, set OSP_Sell_inMarket flag = true

=====> check if current ATR is more than 40% of the weekly ATR(14), if true, remove all pending orders
=====> check if Friday GMT 1200, close all pending and inMarket Orders, set inMarket, OSP_Buy_inMarket, OSP_Sell_inMarket, OSP_Buy_inMarket_BE, OSP_Sell_inMarket_BE = false

=====> if (OSP_Buy_inMarket_BE = false)
==========> if Ask price >= OSP_Buy_BE, set OSP_Buy_inMarket_BE = true

=====> if (OSP_Sell_inMarket_BE = false)
==========> if Bid price <= OSP_Sell_BE, set OSP_Sell_inMarket_BE = true

=====> if OSP_Buy_inMarket = true, and OSP_Buy_inMarket_BE = true
==========> modify the OSP_Buy Order SL to BE

=====> if OSP_Sell_inMarket = true, OSP_Sell_inMarket_BE = true
==========> modify the OSP_Sell Order SL to BE

[Rei]

Yes the system is good! looking at reports back to 2004 from 260 +/- trades only 5 has a profit racio of less than 2, this means that if your SL was 20 then only 5 had a less then 40 pips chance of profit, and the average stays on TP = 6SL wich is very good, even if you have a loss you can always profit the loss, profit the tp (2sl) and even take some extra.

While we are looking at the backtest spreadsheet that Phil posted in his first post, I’ve noticed in cell G508 the running balance jumps up to $1000 instead of following the sequence. Its easy to fix but it means the final balance should be $2592 and not $3335. Maybe Phil can confirm?

EDIT: Another profitable week even with two losses at the start!

[Firstfx]

EDIT: Another profitable week even with two losses at the start!

Please explain. In this strategy do you not just enter two trades at the beginning of the week? Once the two trades are stopped out you are done, right? Did you enter a third trade?

[Rei]

Please explain. In this strategy do you not just enter two trades at the beginning of the week? Once the two trades are stopped out you are done, right? Did you enter a third trade?

I am trading this on GBP JPY as well as GBP USD coz I want to risk more but dont want to put it all on the one currency pair. There are pros and cons to doing this but I am comfortable with it.

[pirateboy]

there have been close shaves on this strategy, for example, the one on 11/8 would be a double loss, not 6+R, because the price spiked to stop me out at candle high by 1 pip (i grumbed about this then on this thread). you can see if if you go down to 5mins.

And for this week’s trade, some folks were stopped out, asyou rightly mentioned and I was saved by the skin of my tooth by 1.2 pips. folks who didn’t get these two trades would be missing the 9R.

For anyone who avoided the stop out the short was profitable this week. I have a + 9R return since I began tracking the strategy pretty much in line with Phils backtest

[pirateboy]

hi Rei, how’s the performance off G/J, did you do a backtest like Phil on G/J?

I am trading this on GBP JPY as well as GBP USD coz I want to risk more but dont want to put it all on the one currency pair. There are pros and cons to doing this but I am comfortable with it.

[phil838]

While we are looking at the backtest spreadsheet that Phil posted in his first post, I’ve noticed in cell G508 the running balance jumps up to $1000 instead of following the sequence. Its easy to fix but it means the final balance should be $2592 and not $3335. Maybe Phil can confirm?

EDIT: Another profitable week even with two losses at the start!

Yeah, that was my mistake. I was figuring up the rate of return for each year and the easiest way was to just plug $1000 into the spreadsheet at the beginning of each year then see what the balance was at the end of that year.

Apparently when I was changing them back I missed one… I’ll fix it and post another spreadsheet on the first post.

[phil838]

there have been close shaves on this strategy, for example, the one on 11/8 would be a double loss, not 6+R, because the price spiked to stop me out at candle high by 1 pip (i grumbed about this then on this thread). you can see if if you go down to 5mins.

And for this week’s trade, some folks were stopped out, asyou rightly mentioned and I was saved by the skin of my tooth by 1.2 pips. folks who didn’t get these two trades would be missing the 9R.

I hate it when that happends, but I think the pip variations due to different broker’s price feeds will even out over time. Sometimes they will cause you to lose, but sometimes they will save you when everyone else lost.

Over the course of a year or more everyone should come out about the same.

[phil838]

yeah, i took off too with some nice profit.

A question to the strategy author, is it absolutly necessary for the 2 pending orders to be opened at the same time? I need to know this to continue making the ea.

It depends on what your’re asking. They don’t [I]have [/I]to be pending orders, but the EA would have to be watching for both the long and short orders at the same time, no matter if they are pending order set up in advance or market orders that trigger when price crosses the entry point.

[phil838]

Hi Phil,

You may want to consider the e-video course like NickB’s. Have your own blog and forum, I believed people want support you as you are more patience and supportive in helping newbies esp.

Count me in, off course!

I really never considered doing a video course before… There are so many ripoffs out there and I don’t want to be lumped in with all the scam artists selling video courses…

Selling a book to a publisher is one thing, but I just feel uneasy about selling forex training to individuals… I’d need about $300 worth of software to make it, so I couldn’t give it away for free. Would anyone else be interested in a reasonably priced (around $50) video course that explains my trading strategies, shows me taking live trades, etc.

EDIT: After talking to some people via PM/email we have an answer to my “don’t want to charge” problem. I’m going to make two video courses… One will be a 2-3 hour NickB style course teaching people how I trade. This course will be completely free.

The other will be a 5-minute per day video podcast where I run through the trades I took that day and point out what trades to be watching tomorrow. This is basically a signal service (gasp!) for the lazy people that don’t want to do the work themselves and will cost a monthly fee. Anything profit above what it takes to run the site and produce the videos will be donated to charity (and the fact that I get the tax write-off is enough compensation to me for my time).

So the lazy people are being charged to cover the production fees and bandwidth/website costs so the rest of the people that want to learn to trade for themselves don’t have to pay!

It’s perfect! I don’t have to charge people that want to learn to trade for themselves, and I don’t feel bad about charging the lazy folks because they passed up the free option to get the easy-way-out.

[phil838]

Hi Phil,

Sorry for asking this question again if it has been answered b4.

In the trending mkt, we will follow the rules that you have set, what abt when mkt is ranging, will you bend the rules like take profit earlier or change your SL % or etc etc…

Nope! That’s why the stoploss and profit levels are based on dynamic things like candle size and ATR. If the market is ranging then the stoploss and takeprofit levels will naturally get smaller. This means the system should adapt to whatever the market is doing.

Of course that adaption will take a little time… You’ll have a few weeks of losses before the ATR lowers itself to the new market conditions, but the system is profitable even with those bad runs so it’s not a problem.

I think that’s what has caused the downfall of the NickB scalp line method these last few months… It’s 50 pip SL and TP did not adapt to different market conditions. I need to come up with a way to fix that.

[pirateboy]

Phil, this is a good idea, and noone will fault you at all for charging for your time, and even if it were no-for-profit. In fact, any business is for profit.

I think though, that noone can be successful from signals. There is no substitute for training to depart from the animal instinct. there is no substitute for training to sit on your hands!

So the lazy people are being charged to cover the production fees and bandwidth/website costs so the rest of the people that want to learn to trade for themselves don’t have to pay!

It’s perfect! I don’t have to charge people that want to learn to trade for themselves, and I don’t feel bad about charging the lazy folks because they passed up the free option to get the easy-way-out.

[s050399b]

Howdy!!

Just finished writing this EA? and compiled without errors, could someone run it and let me know how it goes? Going to have dinner~

===================================

[ Flags ]
goToMarket = FALSE; // signal that Monday GMT 0100 has just been reached
OSP_Buy_Done = FALSE; // to check if BuyTrade has been triggered
OSP_Buy_BE_Now = FALSE; // to check if BE for BuySide has been triggered
OSP_Sell_Done = FALSE; // to check if SellTrade has been triggered
OSP_Sell_BE_Now = FALSE; // to check if BE for SellSide has been triggered

(( Initialization ))

• find and draw the previous Sunday breakout box

(( Start - looping ))

• find weekly ATR for current, previous and 14 periods
  ===> if ATR is over 40% of weekly ATR(14), alert user

• check if price reach 2x the Stop Loss
  ===> alert user if reached

• if we did not receive the signal to enter the market, lets check the price now
  =====> if it’s just passed Monday GMT 0100, set goToMarket = TRUE
  ==========> draw the Sunday breakout box

• else (means that we have the signal to enter the market)
  =====> if the ATR is over 40, we will not enter market, if less than 40% then proceed below

==========> if buyside trade has not been enterered, check price [[[ !OSP_Buy_Done ]]]
===============> if Ask price is >= OSP Buy, lets enter the trade

==========> if sellside trade has not been enterered, check price [[[ !OSP_Sell_Done ]]]
===============> if Bid price is <= OSP Sell, lets enter the trade

=====> if BuySide has not reached BE price, lets check it now
==========> if Ask price >= OSP_Buy_When_to_BE, then set flag OSP_Buy_BE_Now = TRUE

=====> if Sellside has not reached BE price, lets check it now
==========> if Bid price <= OSP_Sell_When_to_BE, then set flag OSP_Sell_BE_Now = TRUE

=====> if we got the signal to move OSP_Buy to BE, and we are in the Buy Trade
==========> then modify order to BE

=====> if we got the signal to move OSP_Sell to BE, and we are in the Sell Trade
==========> then modify order to BE

=====> if it’s Friday, and it’s GMT 1200, then lets close all trades
==========> if BuySide is in the market, close it
==========> if SellSide is in the market, close it
==========> reset all flags to false

end if

===================================

H4 Sunday Breakout.zip (4.33 KB)

[phil838]

Howdy!!

Just finished writing this EA? and compiled without errors, could someone run it and let me know how it goes? Going to have dinner~

When I tried to attach it too my chart I got a “Expert ‘H4 Sunday Breakout’ is an indicator and cannot be executed” error.

I removed the top line from the EA (#property indicator_chart_window) and it attaches just fine now!

I ran it in the Strategy Tester but just got a ton of “Unmatched Data” errors, but that’s a problem on my end and not with the EA. I don’t want to risk screwing up my data so I’ll install a separate copy of MT4 later, build the data from scratch, and test it. I’m working on video stuff right now but I’ll get around to it later if no one else beats me to it.

[phil838]

Phil, this is a good idea, and noone will fault you at all for charging for your time, and even if it were no-for-profit. In fact, any business is for profit.

I think though, that noone can be successful from signals. There is no substitute for training to depart from the animal instinct. there is no substitute for training to sit on your hands!

I agree! Trading is 80% money management and controlling emotions, and only about 20% actually knowing when to place the trades.

But if I tell people that (and offer to teach it too them for free), and they ignore it and want to pay for signals anyway, that’s not my problem… If being on Babypip’s forums for a year has taught me anything it’s that 90% of people won’t listen to that type of advice.

So if they’re willing to buy signals and pay the way for the serious traders learn for free I’m gonna let them!

And I know they’re willing, because I get a couple PM’s every month asking if I do signals or managed accounts!

I guess I should probably shut up in case any of them are reading this…