Sunday Breakout Strategy

[TalonD]

I just started taking a look at this thread, Just wondering what are the statistics on the sunday breakout? win to loss ratio? Those who are using it, what kind of results have you gotten?

[pirateboy]

will answer this based on my comps: wins 20% BE 35% Losses 45%. wins about 3-6R, losses 1R. max drawdown 7R (Phil’s post below).

I just started taking a look at this thread, Just wondering what are the statistics on the sunday breakout? win to loss ratio? Those who are using it, what kind of results have you gotten?

[pirateboy]

think about 24 hrs ago, IBFX’s 4 decimal server closed down, and replaced with a 5 decimal one. I tried to re-register for 4 decimal, but couldn’t.

Thanks Cprao!

I had a bit of a problem trying to trade GBP/USD and EUR/JPY this week. Too much math in too little of a time span, plus I’m already in the GBP/USD long trade due to an indicator screwup.

I hope it goes up!

The good news is that I might have a functional EA for this. I built one using S05’s indicator as a base. It entered the trade with a 1 pip buffer instead of 10 due to a decimal problem, but that’s easily fixable.

[s050399b]

this is the modified sunday breakout; it appears to escaped the Japan-session 1st hour whipped-saw? keeping fingers crossed

you can see from here that GBPJPY and GBPUSD has the highest RR

[s050399b]

I am thinking if Yen is following closely with USD, is it possible to “trade” all pairs ending with JPY, and USD?

[phil838]

I just started taking a look at this thread, Just wondering what are the statistics on the sunday breakout? win to loss ratio? Those who are using it, what kind of results have you gotten?

There’s an excel file attached to the first post that has 8 months of my live results plus about 5 years of manual backtesting.

Like Pirateboy said, the win rate is only 20-30%, but the winners are around 4 times as big as the losers. The way market conditions are right now the losers are around 30-60 pips and the winners are around 225-250.

As for rate of return I’ve made a little over 30% this year with this system alone. It would have been over 40% but I missed a few trades.

[phil838]

think about 24 hrs ago, IBFX’s 4 decimal server closed down, and replaced with a 5 decimal one. I tried to re-register for 4 decimal, but couldn’t.

Yep, that’s what messed me up. I got in 1 pip above the candle instead of 10 because of the 5th decimal.

[cprao]

Yep, that’s what messed me up. I got in 1 pip above the candle instead of 10 because of the 5th decimal.

Long stopped out for me.

[Firstfx]

Long stopped out and also short triggered.

[phil838]

Long stopped out and also short triggered.

Same here.

My EUR/JPY experiment hit the breakeven point, though. Maybe I’ll get a winner with it.

[s050399b]

hmmmm, need the london session’s virtual force to pull them down further~

[s050399b]

Just in case someone find it useful?

Trading hours and all those frequently used timezones

[s050399b]

wow!!! The London session force is quite strong!! But I thought they are on holidays today?

Who will “replace” London exchange for their “London Session”?

[Nickylikessss]

Did you get it figured out Nicky?

If not can someone please post a labeled screenshot? I’d do it but my charts are covered with lines from the EA I’m testing and there’s no way to get rid of them.

They’ll just confuse the heck out of her if I try and make a screenshot…

Well it turns out that it was my fault really haha. I wasn’t reading the graph carefully enough… My broker doesn’t show the Sunday candle! A bit of a senseless error, but I’ll know for next week now =]

[pirateboy]

hmmm… was coming from the angle of drawdown correlation. if both crosses don’t experience their max drawdown at the same time, then potentially we can increase our risk money to more than 2%…

After I read that I went and compared EJ with my new rules to GU with the old rules. For 2009 there’s only a 52% correlation between them with the different rule sets.

[Rei]

hmmm… was coming from the angle of drawdown correlation. if both crosses don’t experience their max drawdown at the same time, then potentially we can increase our risk money to more than 2%…

Im trading G/Y and G/U both on 2% risk for each trade. That means when I get 4 losses in one week I lose 8% (ie. p x 0.92). When I get a losing streak of 5 double losses then thats p x 0.92^5 = p x 0.66. Am I crazy?

[MattW2009]

Am I crazy?

Yes. Those two pairs in my experience are quite closely correlated so your losing streaks are liable to coincide. As Pirateboy said you may be able to increase your exposure on non-correlated pairs, but I wouldn’t for those two.

[s050399b]

Hi phil838,

This is the code to remove your digits-worry; basically, all symbols are in 2 or 4 digits. So it’s more than 4 digits, set it to 4, else set it to 2. And use the digits (lowercase) variable throughout your program.

int decimal_places ()
{
if ( Digits >= 4 ) return ( 4 );
else return ( 2 );
}

[phil838]

Yes. Those two pairs in my experience are quite closely correlated so your losing streaks are liable to coincide. As Pirateboy said you may be able to increase your exposure on non-correlated pairs, but I wouldn’t for those two.

I agree, I wouldn’t feel comfortable doing that. If it was me I’d cut the risk down to 1% per trade.

[phil838]

Hi phil838,

This is the code to remove your digits-worry; basically, all symbols are in 2 or 4 digits. So it’s more than 4 digits, set it to 4, else set it to 2. And use the digits (lowercase) variable throughout your program.

int decimal_places ()
{
if ( Digits > 4 ) return ( 4 );
else return ( 2 );
}

Thanks. I’ve got two losses and one BE so far, but still have the possibility of a EUR/JPY long trade. I’ll work on the code after that last trade hits…