Sunday Breakout Strategy

[dusktrader]

Good evening, here are my trades for this week. Btw I trade with IBFX mini account:

GBPUSD
ATR = 398
trigger_high = 1.6224
trigger_low = 1.6204

BUY @ 1.6224 + 10 + sp = 1.6238
TP @ 1.6238 + 199 = 1.6437
SL @ 1.6204
breakeven @ 1.6238 + 68 = 1.6306

SELL @ 1.6204 - 10 = 1.6194
TP @ 1.6194 - 199 + sp = 1.5999
SL @ 1.6224 + sp = 1.6228
breakeven @ 1.6194 - 68 = 1.6126

EURJPY
ATR = 404
trigger_high = 130.54
trigger_low = 130.28

BUY @ 130.54 + 10 + sp = 130.68
TP @ 130.68 + 202 = 132.70
SL @ 130.28 - 10 = 130.18
breakeven @ 130.68 + 101 = 131.69

SELL @ 130.28 - 10 = 130.18
TP @ 130.18 - 202 + sp = 128.20
SL @ 130.54 + 10 + sp = 130.68
breakeven @ 130.18 - 101 = 129.17

[dusktrader]

[B]
Hi, dusktrader[/B]

Sorry to be so long replying to your question.

I trade through FXCM.

FXCM typically opens at 3pm (New York time) on Sunday, which is perfect for Phil’s Sunday Breakout Strategy, because
3pm EST = 20:00 GMT. In other words, my platform includes all of the 4-hour period 20:00-00:00 GMT used by this strategy.

[B]IBFX, on the other hand, opens at 23:00 GMT on Sunday, so that the first 4-hour candle of the day on Sunday is actually only a 1-hour candle, 23:00-00:00 GMT[/B].

You can confirm this for yourself, as follows:

On your IBFX MT4 platform, scroll back to the first candle on Sunday, December 6, [B]on the H1 chart[/B]. You will notice that this is the 23:00 GMT candle. Record the O, H, L, and C of that candle.

Now scroll back to the first candle on Sunday [B]on the H4 chart[/B] and record the O, H, L, and C. You will notice that this candle is labeled “20:00 GMT”; however, it actually includes only one hour of price data, from 23:00 to 00:00 GMT.

Compare the figures from the two charts. On both the H1 chart and the H4 chart, the numbers are the same:

[ul]
[li]O: 1.6462
[/li][li]H: 1.6474
[/li][li]L: 1.6453
[/li][li]C: 1.6470
[/li][/ul]
For further confirmation, check the Sunday OPEN on the M5 chart: [B]1.6462 at 23:00 GMT[/B].

In other words, you are setting up the Sunday Breakout Strategy based on the one hour from 23:00 GMT to 00:00 GMT, which is not what Phil specified way back in post #1.

[B]Which brings up a major question:[/B]

Phil also uses IBFX MT4. So, if he devised this strategy using the first Sunday candle on the H4 chart, which is labeled 20:00 GMT, but actually does not open until 23:00 GMT — [B]then, the instructions for setting up this strategy (back in post #1) are incorrect, and must be revised[/B].

If this is the case, then the Sunday Breakout Strategy is actually based on a 1-hour candle which opens at 23:00 GMT
(6pm EST) — not, as stated in post #1, on a 4-hour candle which opens at 20:00 GMT.

In my post #1563, I listed the times for the HIGH and LOW of the 4-hour period: [ul]
[li]HIGH 1.6479 [B](the HIGH was made at 22:55 GMT)[/B]
[/li][li] LOW 1.6420 [B](the LOW was made at 22:10 GMT)[/B]
[/li][/ul]
If you check your IBFX MT4 charts, you will see that you have no price data for the time prior to 23:00 GMT on Sunday.

That explains why your numbers and mine don’t agree. Sorry for the long, rambling explanation.

[B]We need to get some clarification from Phil on the actual time period he’s been using as the set-up for this strategy.[/B]

Clint

Thanks Clint … I agree with everything you have said here. You are correct, on IBFX there is only 1 hour of data in that starting candle. IBFX starts trading at 6pm Eastern.

My understanding is that Phil’s rules were based on his backtesting of several years. We need to find out if his backtest data was based on IBFX or a more-accurate source like FXCM’s feed…

[manusiatengik]

im agree with u bro…im on it know:D

[seans]

yikes…two quick losers this week by the looks of it. Lucky this is a no trade week due to the end of the year

[nutrader]

yikes…two quick losers this week by the looks of it. Lucky this is a no trade week due to the end of the year

only 1 loss so far

[seans]

only 1 loss so far

sorry, I should have been more specific. I was referring to GBPUSD. Didn’t that lose on the long and short?

[Rei]

GBP USDwould be two losses this week because of the spread. If I was trading, the long trade would have hit my stoploss. It was very close.

I got 1.6257 for my trigger high this week. Not sure how you get only 1.6224

[Clint]

I got 1.6257 for my trigger high this week. Not sure how you get only 1.6224

[B]Rei, [/B]

Apparently, you are using the entire 4-hour period from 20:00 GMT to midnight GMT to establish your entry prices,
as Phil instructed in post #1.

Dusktrader, on the other hand, is using the IBFX MT4 platform, which does not open on Sunday until 23:00 GMT.
Therefore, he is using a 1-hour period from 23:00 GMT to midnight GMT for his set-up.

Phil also uses IBFX MT4, which calls into question his instructions in post #1.

See post #1578 and post #1582, where Dusktrader and I discussed this problem.

Clint

[manusiatengik]

for this week my result
buy = stoploss
sell = close manual at 152 pip (coz friday my broker closing hours)

[bunterpips]

[B]Rei, [/B]

Apparently, you are using the entire 4-hour period from 20:00 GMT to midnight GMT to establish your entry prices,
as Phil instructed in post #1.

Dusktrader, on the other hand, is using the IBFX MT4 platform, which does not open on Sunday until 23:00 GMT.
Therefore, he is using a 1-hour period from 23:00 GMT to midnight GMT for his set-up.

Phil also uses IBFX MT4, which calls into question his instructions in post #1.

See post #1578 and post #1582, where Dusktrader and I discussed this problem.

Clint

See Phils comments on post #25 I think that will answer your question

[Clint]

See Phils comments on post #25 I think that will answer your question

Here is Phil’s comment from post #25.

…The Sunday candle should cover the time period from 20:00GMT to 00:00GMT. Some brokers, such as mine, don’t start their data feeds until 21:00 or 22:00, and that’s fine. [B] Volume is really low at these hours so it doesn’t affect price much…[/B]

Phil’s comment is not really valid for tonight’s numbers (Sunday 1/3/10):

[B]True 4-hour candle (20:00-00:00 GMT). GBP/USD price range: 48 pips.[/B]

[B]Abbreviated “4-hour” candle, actually a 1-hour time period, (23:00-00:00 GMT). GBP/USD price range: 31 pips.[/B]

As Rei’s question (post #1587) pointed out, there can be a significant difference in the price range, between a 4-hour period and a 1-hour period. His question pertained to the GBP/USD price range for Sunday 12/13/09. You can scroll back and review the price discrepancy for that date.

This discussion of the true price range actually began a week earlier, with the GBP/USD price range for Sunday 12/6/09.
Here are the price ranges in question. As you can see, Phil’s comment is clearly not valid for the price ranges on that date.

[B]True 4-hour candle (20:00-00:00 GMT). GBP/USD price range: 59 pips.[/B]

[B]Abbreviated “4-hour” candle, actually a 1-hour time period, (23:00-00:00 GMT). GBP/USD price range: 21 pips.[/B]

It’s apparent that Phil based his strategy on the first candle which opened on the IBFX 4-hour chart on Sunday evening.
That candle was labeled 20:00 GMT, but contained no price data prior to 23:00 GMT.

Therefore, right from the beginning, the strategy was actually built on the 1-hour period 23:00-00:00 GMT.

[B]Anyone trading this strategy should use the 1-hour candle which opens at 23:00 GMT and closes at 00:00 GMT. Alternatively, you can use any lower time-frame chart (30-minute, 15-minute, etc.) to find the HIGH and LOW for the 23:00-00:00 GMT time period.[/B]

Clint

[Rei]

Hi Clint,

Im not sure how this affects everything, but the London maket also goes on daylight saving, GMT +1 during the northern hemisphere summer. I think this is where Phil might have recorded an extra 1 hour candle.

Anyway … I don’t think this really affects the long term results much since everything averages out. 2009 was not as good a usual for this strategy, apparently. Hopefully it improves.

[Clint]

I’m not sure how this affects everything, but the London market also goes on daylight saving, GMT +1 during the northern hemisphere summer. I think this is where Phil might have recorded an extra 1 hour candle…

Hi, Rei

Daylight Saving Time (DST) is not a factor here.

For most of the year, Europe, the U.K., and North America are all either on DST, or on standard time.

The only exception to this is one week in October and three weeks in March, when the U.S. and Canada make the switch before Europe and the U.K.

In other words — except for those four weeks in March and October — London, Phil, and his IBFX charts are all either on DST,
or off DST, at the same times of year.

[seans]

Hard going, another two losers on GBPUSD this week.

[Rei]

Hard going, another two losers on GBPUSD this week.

Oh dear. I hope it improves next week. Im starting again next week.

[sk0ll]

Well…

2 losses this week… Im having some very good results using the gus strategy i showed some posts ago… 1 winner for long, and for short so far i already have a winner going to tp3 , im looking for someone who could code an ea based on that strategy!!

Thanks!

[01005379]

Well…

2 losses this week… Im having some very good results using the gus strategy i showed some posts ago… 1 winner for long, and for short so far i already have a winner going to tp3 , im looking for someone who could code an ea based on that strategy!!

Thanks!

How much buffer do you use?

[sk0ll]

What you mean by buffer?

did you see the strategy?? do you have skype or msn messenger? we can make this ea… i think its not difficult… very similar strategy to this sunday break out… Im having very good results and it seems much more safe than the original phill strategy!!

thanks!!

[01005379]

What you mean by buffer?

did you see the strategy?? do you have skype or msn messenger? we can make this ea… i think its not difficult… very similar strategy to this sunday break out… Im having very good results and it seems much more safe than the original phill strategy!!

thanks!!

Lets say that candle high and low are 1.4000 and 1.3950. Where you put your orders. Is it buy at 1.4000 and sell at 1.3950, or you and some breathing space pips like buy at 1.4020 and sell at 1.3930? (This is buffer)

Gus strategy is allmost the same it just use first 4h monday candle, and it doesn’t use atr.

[sk0ll]

Hey… I use 20 pip buffer from the high and low

Do you have the indicator? with the indicator is very easy to see . After i hit TP1 I close 1/3 of the trade, then move SL to BE, then 1/3 in tp2 and 1/3 in TP3 , you can also close 50% on TP1 move to be and ride for tp3 … it all on your strategy… i think the important part of the ea is to leave flexibe the combination for the % of closing on each TP so we can set the most profitable on backtest . There is also an ea that closes trades partially that might be usefull to add on the main ea!!

THIS week result

Long SIDE - 65 pips on long side 1/3 – + BE
SHORT SIDE - I Hit TP3 - 320 pips

So far this strategy is going great for me