I’ve stopped trading because im on holiday.
I suspect this time of the year usually sees a lot of range bound price action. Things should start to improve for this system once the holiday season is over.
I have the following numbers for the GBP/USD for this week:
[B]Sunday candle (20:00-00:00 GMT, 3pm-7pm EST):[/B]
[ul]
[li]HIGH 1.6479 (the HIGH was made at 22:55 GMT)
[/li]
[li]LOW 1.6420 (the LOW was made at 22:10 GMT)
[/li]
[li]Range (H-L) = 59 pips
[/li]
[li]SL = Range+10 pips = 69 pips (this represents RISK)
[/li][/ul]
[B]ATR/TP/BE:[/B]
[ul]
[li]ATR(14) for last week = 416 pips
[/li]
[li]TP = 416/2 = 208 pips (this represents REWARD)
[/li]
[li]BE = 2(SL) = 2(69) = 138 pips above LONG entry, or below SHORT entry
[/li][/ul]
[B]Reward/Risk Ratio:[/B]
[ul]
[li]R/R = 208/69 = 3.01:1 (consider whether this ratio is high enough to justify the following trades)
[/li][/ul]
[B]Entry/TP/SL/BE:[/B]
[ul]
[li]LONG Entry 1.6489, TP 1.6697, SL 1.6420, Move stop to BE when price hits 1.6627
[/li]
[li]SHORT Entry 1.6410, TP 1.6202, SL 1.6479, Move stop to BE when price hits 1.6272
[/li][/ul]
Hi guys, here are my numbers for this weeks trades:
GBPUSD
ATR = 402
trigger_high = 1.6474
trigger_low = 1.6453
BUY @ 1.6474 + 10 + sp = 1.6488
TP @ 1.6488 + 201 = 1.6689
SL @ 1.6453
breakeven @ 1.6488 + 70 = 1.6558
SELL @ 1.6453 - 10 = 1.6443
TP @ 1.6443 - 201 + sp = 1.6246
SL @ 1.6474 + sp = 1.6478
breakeven @ 1.6443 - 70 = 1.6373
EURJPY
ATR = 386
trigger_high = 134.34
trigger_low = 133.73
BUY @ 134.34 + 10 + sp = 134.48
TP @ 134.48 + 193 = 136.41
SL @ 133.73 - 10 = 133.63
breakeven @ 134.48 + 96 = 135.44
SELL @ 133.73 - 10 = 133.63
TP @ 133.63 - 193 + sp = 131.74
SL @ 134.34 + 10 + sp = 134.48
breakeven @ 133.63 - 96 = 132.67
I decided to take the trades this week, in spite of the fact that the R/R ratio falls short of 5:1 (which I previously suggested).
I am LONG from 1.6489 as of a few minutes ago.
Hello
Im also trying other strategy based on sunday… is called 4Hour breakout… made by a guy called GUS
It is very similar to this strategy itself… but i Think it is safer!!
heres the strategy:
4H Breakout
This is the 4H breakout strategy, by far my favorite strategy which is very successful and has made me countless pips.
So when looking at the above screen shot of my MT4 you can see the strategy is very simple. It starts every Sunday night at 00:00 or the beginning of the week. If you are using Metatrader 4 you can just click Ctrl – Y and it will set up lines for you at the beginning of every week.
You then draw lines or a box like in my screen shot the size of the first candle of the week. This will make the low of that candle your sign to sell and the high of that candle your signal to buy.
If you are using MT4 then you can use the Monday Breakout Indicator I posted which I found online. I will post my favorite indicators on the right hand column.
You can also download it at the bottom of this page.
Very important I recommend adding a 5 to 10 pip buffer in the high and low so that you can prevent getting hit by a bad signal, since I have seen it happen before when the price just goes 1 or 2 pips below the low or high and a trade is started just to get hit with a stop loss when it goes the other way. Normally after 5 to 10 pips the price is going to keep moving in that direction.
This strategy works or should work on all JPY pairs but I have only tried it one four of them : USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, CHF/JPY
The rules of this strategy for stop loss and take profit are:
-Two pending orders one in each direction
-Add a buffer of 10 to 20 pips to the buy and sell lines
-Stop Loss is the size of the box.
-Take profit at TP1 then move stop loss to break even and ride it out to TP3.
I backtested it quickly and it seems to have a very good potencial!!
It would be awesome if we could make an EA from it, I think its pretty similar to the one in this thread strategy…
I´m attaching the indicator if anyone want to try it out!!
MondayH4Box.zip (991 Bytes)
Hey Clint,
just curious who your broker is (the one you’re getting the figures from) – I am using an IBFX live mini account. It’s disturbing to see the wide swing in your figures from the initial candle.
A loss and a BE on GBPUSD this week.
So by my calcs that’s the end of trading this system for the year. The next trade is 4 January 2010 although you could easily argue we should take another week off. Perhaps we should even take the trade next week too.
My results for 2009 showed:
17% win
57% Loss
26% BE
1422 pips
Based on a flat 2% risk and not compounded, I reckon it returned about 38% this calendar year. 2009 has been the second worst year over the past 5 years.
Anyone know what has happened to phill? no posts from him for several weeks, which is a shame as this excellent thread seems to lose a bit of momentum without his input.
EY has produced 2 wins in 2 weeks, although i didnt trade EY last week due to the poor RR ratio which was considerably less than 2:1, This weeks win just about cancels out the 2 losses i got from cable
So it seems that despite cables poor run recently EY is still performing well with this strategy
When i first started trading this method back in May or June i started with a poor run of results similar to what we have had in the last few weeks, however this was followed by 3 winning weeks in 4 which easily cancelled out the losses and more.
i hope its only a matter of time before cable gives us some results, so for now, until the markets slow down for christmas & new year, i will continue trading this method on both pairs
Did you guys checked also the Gus strategy??
I did see that over at forex4noobs but havent tried trading it, the time zone is not very favourable for me as it would require setting pending orders at 4am or 5am in the summer. but would be interested in some backtesting history
I guess we can make an EA just like the one in phil strategy … it has the same logic… :)… than we can backtest it!!
It was a double loss for GBPUSD, and a win on EURJPY!! 
For the gus or box thingy, what do we do when low ATR, range?
What do you mean by low ATR?.. Iguess every week should be traded using his strategy… if you plot the indicator on your charts you will see how it works
Im getting some very good results for the past 3 months!
like if ATR for GBPUSD should be around 100, suddenly last week is doing only 20, then the box would be kind of werid?
Or if during the 00:00 hours, the 4hr candle is extra huge/small?
what does his rule say?
My result for GBPUSD short was BE.
Congrats on EURJPY
Hi!!
I join every week, because if you can see it… when there is a low atr there is also a very low target, for the week… I guess we can filter that also… only to join in a certain ATR range… He enters every week!
[B]
Hi, dusktrader[/B]
Sorry to be so long replying to your question.
I trade through FXCM.
FXCM typically opens at 3pm (New York time) on Sunday, which is perfect for Phil’s Sunday Breakout Strategy, because
3pm EST = 20:00 GMT. In other words, my platform includes all of the 4-hour period 20:00-00:00 GMT used by this strategy.
[B]IBFX, on the other hand, opens at 23:00 GMT on Sunday, so that the first 4-hour candle of the day on Sunday is actually only a 1-hour candle, 23:00-00:00 GMT[/B].
You can confirm this for yourself, as follows:
On your IBFX MT4 platform, scroll back to the first candle on Sunday, December 6, [B]on the H1 chart[/B]. You will notice that this is the 23:00 GMT candle. Record the O, H, L, and C of that candle.
Now scroll back to the first candle on Sunday [B]on the H4 chart[/B] and record the O, H, L, and C. You will notice that this candle is labeled “20:00 GMT”; however, it actually includes only one hour of price data, from 23:00 to 00:00 GMT.
Compare the figures from the two charts. On both the H1 chart and the H4 chart, the numbers are the same:
[ul]
[li]O: 1.6462
[/li][li]H: 1.6474
[/li][li]L: 1.6453
[/li][li]C: 1.6470
[/li][/ul]
For further confirmation, check the Sunday OPEN on the M5 chart: [B]1.6462 at 23:00 GMT[/B].
In other words, you are setting up the Sunday Breakout Strategy based on the one hour from 23:00 GMT to 00:00 GMT, which is not what Phil specified way back in post #1.
[B]Which brings up a major question:[/B]
Phil also uses IBFX MT4. So, if he devised this strategy using the first Sunday candle on the H4 chart, which is labeled 20:00 GMT, but actually does not open until 23:00 GMT — [B]then, the instructions for setting up this strategy (back in post #1) are incorrect, and must be revised[/B].
If this is the case, then the Sunday Breakout Strategy is actually based on a 1-hour candle which opens at 23:00 GMT
(6pm EST) — not, as stated in post #1, on a 4-hour candle which opens at 20:00 GMT.
In my post #1563, I listed the times for the HIGH and LOW of the 4-hour period: [ul]
[li]HIGH 1.6479 [B](the HIGH was made at 22:55 GMT)[/B]
[/li][li] LOW 1.6420 [B](the LOW was made at 22:10 GMT)[/B]
[/li][/ul]
If you check your IBFX MT4 charts, you will see that you have no price data for the time prior to 23:00 GMT on Sunday.
That explains why your numbers and mine don’t agree. Sorry for the long, rambling explanation.
[B]We need to get some clarification from Phil on the actual time period he’s been using as the set-up for this strategy.[/B]
Clint
Any1 interested in codding the EA for the GUS Strategy?? I think it will be a profitable ea!! I trade manually with some very good results… but the time zone kills me :S an ea would be awesome for all of us!!
thanks!
Just started following this thread and it seems interesting. I have read quite a bit of posts by phil838 and like what I read. Thanks for the srategy phil I plan to start with demo trading it today. 