Supply/Demand, VSA, Wyckoff with Petefader

Hey Pete! Been going over your first video, The truth behind price movement 1. Been reading and reading about volume spread analysis, and I think it is starting to sink in. I think! Anyhow, got a couple questions, and I guess your thread is keeping you pretty busy. Sorry about all the questions. When you mention Tic activity in accumulation area. I assume you are saying the higher the volume the more tic activity. Then you mention price. Well, in the price bar or candle during accumulation there are small candles, almost like hammers and sometimes dojiā€™s. Well, when there is high volume and small candle bodies it would appear that there should be more spread between the high and low meaning a higher candle body with high volume. But apparently not. So if smart money is buying at this point with high volume and small candle bodies how does the small candle correlate with the high volume. And I also notice the shadows are not quite so long. Do you have to have shadows to show smart money is buying. Can it just be a small body without a shadow.

Hey Pingback. I may be able to answer for you :slight_smile:

You definitely can have a candle with very little actual price movement and high volume (which you are correct, volume=tick activity).
Accumulation does not necessarily need to be small candles, it is more moving within a range. For SM accumulating for a Long Setup, volume increases on the lows and decreases on the highs - indicating SM buying all the shorts up that are available and not being so interested at the higher level. They then pull back and see if any short sellers are still there. Their method is to exhaust the short sellers before moving into markup phase. Quite often, before they markup, they also create a quick dip in the price to also take out others who may be looking to go long as well, but havenā€™t set their stop far enough below the lows.

Now, the high volume and small candle bodies. What does that represent? That is SM working at its best and taking all the orders of the ā€œherdā€, so when the ā€œherdā€ shorts an amount of positions, SM will go long the same amount, which shows minute movement in price, but the tick activity is greatly increased. Although I know what hammers and dojiā€™s are, I rarely judge based on the formation. instead, I look at a candle and ask what has SM done during this candle, and also consider the reaction on the next candle.
Your last question - You do not need to have shadows to show SM buying. You see that in the relation between spread and volume.

Hope that helps somewhat.

I see you have been around a while, so not assuming you are a beginner, but have you had a look at Master the Markets which is available freely with a quick google search. While you are there, also have a look at ā€œMarket Technician No 55ā€ by Henry Pruden. Also freely available. Both are very good reads for VSA analysis

:57:

Appreciate the info. I started learning Trading, havenā€™t actually traded. Looked at a few different methods or systems. But regular indicators didnā€™t seem to have the answers for me. I knew that if smart money is 80% of market activity, then they must be moving the markets. But when I started looking at VSA it seemed a little difficult to learn. I came across Pete Faders vidā€™s, and got interested. I have looked at Master the markets, but they are trying to sell software, and most of Master the Markets tells about how to use the software. I havenā€™t seen much on recognizing the charts without using the software. The software looks like a good thing to have, but I am not gonna spend 3000 dollars on software. Just need to grasp this VSA thing, and after that then I can come up with a reason to trade, maybe!. I would rather have a good knowledge of smart money before I start trading. Just hope all this study pays off. If not I guess I become the 99% or 95% who lose. Or I wind up like Ol SMAN. He! He! And lose my life savings, NOT! Another question, you talk about dips before markup, and SM doing it. Are they trying to fool the long buyers into reversing there positions to go short. Looks like I am back to class 101 again. Thanks!

Oh yes, SMAN :slight_smile:

Yup, SM do try to nail everyone as their interests are themselves obviously. The spike down I referred to is a breakout and then it reverses (I think that is the term).
You are mostly right with Master the Markets. The do flog their software pretty heavily in it, but there are also lots of pearls of wisdom in there as well. Still worth the read and much faster if you skip all the ā€œsellingā€ ****e. Unless you want to waste money, do not buy the software. In my opinion, a person needs to understand themselves what is happening int he market, and not rely on an indicator to tell them to buy/sell. You are buying an expensive ā€œBlack Boxā€ system otherwise.

The study will pay off. It will take time, but in the end it will be like Neo in the Matrix. You will be able to read the chart where others simply see candles etc. It does yell out to you at times. Just remember those who lose all have one thing in common as well. They all quit when it gets a bit tough. Need to remember this is a game of probability and not certainty, so losses will always come. That is why money management and trade management are as critical as entry management.

I believe it is coming in bits and pieces. When you say large volume on small candles, that means SM is buying, in accumulation. When you see low volume and a high candle that means SM is not buying or not buying as much. In the Tradeguide software that Tom Williams sells, and in his book Trading in the Shadows, he mentions bar charts with closes in the middle of the bar and above and below after the preceding bar. I havenā€™t got this figured out either. So these low bars with previous bars or candles if your using candles mean something, but I am not sure on that. Bitā€™s and pieces! Iā€™ll check out his book again, but on the last read I didnā€™t get much out of it, as I couldnā€™t see where he even explained the reasoning behind bars and previous closes, unless your buying his software. Iā€™ll gander at it again though. Thanks!

how does one use the M5 chart in correlation with the H1 and vice versa? im having trouble understanding what to look for in the data of H1 that cant be found in the data of M5.

mmb91, Ok I will have a crack at explaining this if Iā€™m wrong please feel free to correct me.

Rewatch Peteā€™s video on the market phases but what you are looking for in the 1 hour chart allows you to get a larger view of the market so what you are looking for is the market phases.
Accumulation
Mark up
Reaccumulation
Distribution
mark down
Redistribution
Accumulation

Once you have determined what phase you are in you can then look for things like stopping volume this will suggest to you a new phase has started
Stopping volume - Larger volume on the volume chart and also will have a big pin on the top or bottom to suggest high buying or selling pressure.

You can also use the 1hour chart to plot support and resistance levels, key levels etc which could have an impact in the market.

I find those things the 1 hour does alot better then the 5minute.

Hope that helps but make an effort to rewatch Peteā€™s videos they really explain it well.

Cheers,
Tave

alright thanks Tave, will do. just finished tom williams book yesterday, going to reread it again starting today and ill be sure to go over the videos.

also, i plan on trading the forex minis by the end of the year and i was wondering if anyone knew of a decent broker. i know pete said to use ibfx for volume, but i dont know of any good forex mini brokers. i was demo trading the minis with ibfx and it seemed like the spread on their buy orders are just insane. ibfx offers 50:1 leverage with a margin req of $200 to trade one mini lot. are there any other brokers that offer this but dont screw you on the spread so much?

You should try Dukascopy Europe broker. You could deposit only 100 EUR and it works like ECN.

ill look into it, but i was hoping i could find a US broker. i was thinking about using zecco forex, as ive used them for stocks in the past. anyone have experience with them?

edit: actually i like what im seeing with dukascopy and it has great reviews, thanks for that. not sure if they take US clients though.

also sorry for cluttering the thread :smiley:

hello pete, thanks for your effort on this thread. iā€™m a newbie that learning to trade with VCA and PA.
would you mind to correct me if i got wrong with my trade in this picture?


P/S:My english is bad,hope you can understand

Going over videos. Starting to become interesting. On no supply and no demand, I take it these are order entries. And order sells. Also I take it, no supply is on up moves and no demand is on down moves. And no supply means less buying pressure and no demand means less selling pressure. Maybe! Correct me if I am wrong. Thanks!

What was your trade?

Sorry, thatā€™s not correct. Demand means buying and supply means selling. If there is no demand there is a lack of buying. If there is no supply there is a lack of selling.

Where we look for these two signals is when the market ā€œtestsā€ for buyers and sellers.

So an up move/bullish environment will test for sellers. If it is a low volume test then we expect the price to continue up once price moves above the No Supply candle. Keeping that in mind, watch my video ā€œNo Demand No Supply Explainedā€.

Specifically, the market likes to do these tests at areas that previously reversed price such as the automatic rally. If it rejected an up move once, it usually tests for sellers when it gets visited again. A low volume down candle then price moving above it suggests a real breakout is coming because the sellers didnā€™t show up on the testā€¦no supply.

hmm the first tick(second candlestick was my price confirmation to entry)
the last tick was my exit.

to be honest,im still not farmiliar with the volumes,i trade with using the PA, but regarding to the high volume at the selling price.

Very Interested thread. I will follow you from today onward. I am looking forward to get more advises from you.

Hey Eddz,
I know you said your English is bad, but I am sure we are all here to help, regardless of how good or bad it is.
Personally, I am a bit confused with your entry etc. Is it possible to explain the reasons you had for entry? Things I am looking for to see what you are thinking areā€¦

Did you identify strength/weakness in the background
Were you looking off the 1hr chart and then on to the 5min for entry
What was your entry trigger - Was it a NS/ND confirmation, a push through support/resistance area or Automatic Rally point, bounce off or push through fib levels?
Had you looked at where our trade would become invalid. ie where is your stoploss
Had you looked ahead for any target areas
Did you have any thoughts on your trade management while in the trade - locking SL to breakeven at some point, taking off some profits?

None of this is put out to have a go at what you have traded, but more to understand what your logic was and also to show to you some of the things both I and others look at before making a trade.

I hope this is of some help to you :slight_smile:

Tassie

Thanks for reply. When I looked at your no supply no demand video, it appeared that the no supply candles where on markups and no demand on markdowns. Have you got another video on No supply No demand. Iā€™ll search and see. donā€™t know why this is so confusing. There must be a lite somewhere. Or maybe I need more IQ training. It is interesting, though!

A little fuzzy yet! But maybe I will see the lite, I hope. On accumulation we have SM buying up supply. On markup they are still buying, correct. That is if there is still supply. Then just before distribution they start selling off supply, correct. With an upthrust bar or candle and then a downbar or candle to confirm it is in distribution going into markdown. The No supply candle in markup is a test to see if there are still sellers left to get rid of supply as it is going up before distribution. A no supply candle will indicate that supply is running out. The No demand candles are used in Markdowns to test if there is still demand, buying going on. Which if there is then a no demand candle and it is confirmed by the next candle to be a no demand then it is a sign that the markdown will continue. That there is no more buying going on. Something like that. Am I close. Let me know. I can feel it! [I]You can omit my last post.[/I]

thanks for the replied tassie, appreciate it alot, but would you mind further explains on this few parts?
Did you identify strength/weakness in the background
Were you looking off the 1hr chart and then on to the 5min for entry
What was your entry trigger - Was it a NS/ND confirmation, a push through support/resistance area or Automatic Rally point, bounce off or push through fib levels?

i keep go through all the videos, be too be honest, i really donā€™t understand the entry point and no supply demand. i did view through the one hour chart to make sure my trade is safe, but somehow just follow the trend and also the price action, i can hardly understand what the volume is talking about. sorry for the troublesome of mine.