Supply/Demand, VSA, Wyckoff with Petefader

Excellent advice !

Good points there on the mechanics of news, but VSA does teach how to interpret news moves to your advantage. It involves looking at the reaction to the news move for a setup…not looking to catch the initial move it self.

Quick example of a high probability news reaction trade:

Price has been moving down showing traditional signs of demand. News comes out suggesting a down move and price immediately drops. Now we look to the reaction and ask…“did smart money buy into that down move?”. If so it confirms the accumulation and to look for the long entry based on the method.

Indeed; that’s why in my post I mentioned " (mind you sometimes ahead of news events stellar VSA setups can materialize)." Along the same line of what you said, the VSA situation before the actual news release and reaction afterwards can provide a good setup; I just did not want to detract too far from the main thought I wanted to share - the volume on the news release itself is often suspect and does not accurately reflect accumulation/distribution. Trying to make sense of it, over-analyzing it, etc. can lead an inexperienced trader down the wrong path.

I believe with skill and experience, looking at the VSA situation before a news release can provide very profitable opportunities if the setup “confirms” after the news release. From my own experience the moves resulting from these setups tend to last a while, or at least result in a larger move once they are underway. However, I believe they require more skill and experience to trade.

Does anyone think theres anything behind the dailys on USD/CAD and USDX(engulfing at resistance) and GBP/USD (pin bar) ?

Ok, let’s make this interesting…

The No Supply didn’t confirm for the A/J entry.

AU has been on a bit of a downtrend - will it continue down or is the recent high volume up move the beginning of an uptrend?


An area of confluence to look for a setup is shown. The confluence consists of a descending trendine, 50-61.8 retracement and previous support turned resistance.

In searching for our setup, we would look for:


High volume 1 hr rejection candle; we would then zoom into the 5 min chart for a refined entry.


Based on the 5 min chart, we should start seeing stopping volume anytime now. I have yet to see substantially increased volume or volatility.

If we see a setup than a short is warranted. If price continues through this area with low volume, I will then switch bias - I will conclude the downtrend has most likely ended and begin looking for a retracement + SOS to buy into.

Do I believe the downtrend will continue?

We don’t care if it does or not; we just follow the story line and react accordingly - we are ready to make money whether it goes up or down.

Lol you beat me to it Pete…

GU also posted highest daily volume since September 2012 - which can be cross-checked with other GBP crosses to show high volume as well.


Furthermore This is a significant price region, that being the Summer 2012 consolidation; a move up off of this area MAY sustain for quite some time.


Thanks for those posts yesterday on trading into news! Pretty difficult typing this whilst sat on my hands! LOL!
I’ve had a thought and wondered if you’ve got any thoughts on it.Very often,price only retraces to 38.2 and then moves on. Would there be any validity in dropping down to the M5 charts at that point and looking for a VSA setup? Thanks a lot

Good advice folks! Arrowed is a NS candle confirmed !!!


Well, this thread is on Pete’s method, where he has demonstrated his [I]edge[/I] on the market using the 50-61.8 retracement coupled with several other tactics.

Having said that, nothing is set in stone; nothing wrong with experimentation.

If you make an observation that is repeatable (pattern), then test it to ensure it is robust, have some statistics behind it where you see it occur [I]x[/I] number of times = Now you have an edge to exploit. That is you becoming your own trader, trading your own method, based on your own observations.

Sure, if price has not gone as far as the 50-61.8 then NS/ND are valid. Technically they are valid anywhere but once you reach 50-61.8 an increase on volume is more likely to reverse it back to trending…rather than the low volume signal.

Obviously the G/U did not setup for entry today. I like doing the look ahead videos though, I plan to do more.

I may be missing it but I don’t see much of a VSA set-up in this particular chart and I am sure I would not have survived that nasty spike upwards before price tumbled.

Absolutely. I’m on a VSA trade at the moment on AU which was absolutely textbook (I think!).It’s been ranging for about 3 hrs now but has finally started to climb. It’s amazing.I thought i understood PA before I found your method but now it’s like a light has come on! You can see exactly what is happening step by step whereas before it would just be a chart.And as for indicators they really are whistles and bells. Cheers Pete

Yeah sorry! I was just thinking aloud really !!:smiley: I don’t think you can better his system or anything like that .

Lol…You may be able to…it’s just that you’d have to back it up with evidence :18:

It’s good to see you’re experimenting my friend! you’ll never know if what you’re thinking of works otherwise. :slight_smile:

EU retraced back to the setup I mentioned yesterday, approximately 1.3430 area.


5 Min chart:


This is an area where previously supply overcame demand with a valid VSA setup (again I mentioned this setup yesterday).

Hey Pete looks like that move number 5 on the EU that you talked about on Sunday is panning out!

Shout out at 1:33. :cool:

haha this is cool, just wanted to show it off. I don’t know him personally…he’s pretty well known in youtube gaming.
Sent him the song and he used it in the opening montage. I used voice samples from his vids.