Actually, there is nothing wrong with your analysis but the price action can be influenced by anything in background at any moment because the price action does not consist of technical analysis only. Besides, our analysis is just a probability. We predict the price action by using different tools but we can never be sure completely. If you want to improve probability of your predictions, you should use S/R levels, Pivot points, Fibo levels with volume analysis, all together. Moreover, you should look for stopping signals before trying to find its return in a trending price action.
I have watched all Pete’s videos multiple times and I must admit that I would took short there too :34:.
Seems like loeil is not the only one who gets a wrong impression.
And as loeil, I thought also that there was an upthrust candle with very high volume and this upthrust candle closed below previous one. I don’t understand, volume is high, candle is bearish, price rejected multiple times there, it seems strong resistance… Does short trade makes more sense if the upthrust candle should have low volume (like some kind of low volume test)? :34:
Long time since I’ve posted haha. Anyway here is my analysis for G/U. Critique is very welcome!
picture share
Although there is a lot of strength in E/U aswell…ND shows up after push through AR Demand. I’m short with my target at the fibzone/previous resistance (confluence).
Edit: Actually strength isn’t really clear on E/U as there seems to be alot of selling into upmoves also. Would love some comments on the E/U background!
Hello,
went short today on EU and got stopped out. I’ll post my analysis so we can discuss if i’ve done something wrong:
H1 Chart:
M15 Chart:
M5 Chart (with entry after close below ND candle):
Thanks for your input.
I am not experienced like some of the others in this thread but I’ll give my two cents.
Looking at recent background we see signs of strength yesterday characterized by the wicks that were formed due to rejection in that demand area (Near your 0.0 level on the fib).
We push through the latest supply area with a wide spread bullish bar (8am GMT) which high relative volume (caution could indicate supply) BUT next bar closes bullish (sign of strength) then we get a No Supply with a wick on the bottom (10am GMT & another sign of strength).
We are safely in an markup phase here. Next we get a wide spread bullish bar (1pm GMT) with a pin on the top with some increased volume on some previous support. Next bar closes bearish but price falls and comes back rapidly to close near the open on still high(ish) volume which is another sign of strength (shakeout/fake breakout?).
Price continues until it hits some stopping volume in supply area between 1.3592 and 1.362.
Alot of aggressive buying behaviour today. I tried a little short to the 50/618 fib zone as you see in my post but I got out at BE acknowledging the overwhelming strength when it went against me. Grabbed some nice pips on the G/U today! (similar story)
Everything’s right with what you’ve said. Something i forgot today is look to the near background, and i’ve made a mistake. First trade with this, hope to get the hang of it anyway.
It would be beautiful to trade in live with people who trades the same method, my Skype id is: eleon.rox
Hope to make a chat with you soon!
A very elaborate and complex explanation… 
petefader re Video about a setup,
Which broker platform are you using there?
I dont quite get those large wicks at the bottom of the 5 min candles, in fact my lowest price is only 1.63526 [im using dukascopy]
Thanks for your work bro, youre a legend 
ps. what kind of tp target are you looking at for this setup, or is it mostly a “depending on the up coming candles” manual exit scenario?
Dean
petefader, correction on my last post…
I was so excited about seeing your video I didnt realise I was looking at the next low AFTER the one you were talking about, so scrap the question also about the broker youre using, I just had to open my eyes.:rolleyes:
But I would still very much like to know what tp you may set on such an entry (if you did enter) and would you move the stop loss as the price went your way or leave it on the spot.
Now in hindsight its easy to see there is a way to have profited with either SL strategy on this particular trade.
Not really trading properly atm (no time) but will soon. Would love to trade with like minded traders mate
Anyone observing the strength on e/u?
Edit: There she goes!..ok maybe not yet lol
Anyone watching GBPCAD? There was a false breakout on high volume and a bullish move back to resistance (although it was counter-trend to the 1-hour and 4-hour so a bit risky):
hello pete,
nice to meet you… im a newbie in learning VSA…
i really thank you for every videos and materials that have been released…
i’ve watched almost all your videos…
let me summarize it, correct me if im wrong…
- find climatic act ( climatic buy/sell) with high… if possible highest volume.
- find no demand/supply for confirmation that end of it’s trend…
- make an area in ranging from peak price (up/bottom) to area above no demand/no supply candle… or pete said AR (automatic rally)
- price will test its area again… entry… when price break those areas.
question… 
it would be nice if there’s some indi or alert to inform… there’s a climatic act (buy/sell)… so we dont have to watch MT4 chart all day… to find those opportunities…
thanks.
god bless you all.
god bless you pete
Hi Wongpasar,
You need to remember there is no free meal ticket. Pete has already provided close to that with his method, but if you want to succeed at forex, you cannot simply rely on an indi to alert you to the trade. You need to invest time in front of the MT4 screen, and by time, I mean that it will be a lot of time to truly understand the charts properly.
If it was as simple as wait for the indicator to tell you when to trade, it would have been converted into a “Black Box” ea by now and would be making a killing with sales. I once thought that all I needed to do was find the right ea and I’d be set, but there is no silver bullet with this, and no easy road. Pete makes it better by showing you the road he travels, but there is still a lot to learn and understand.
I don’t say this to try to scare you off it, but more to try to get you to understand that it is still a long road.
I have been trading live for 3 years now, and am only just developing the right consistency and independence.
Here’s a trade I just took on demo:
-
PA generated a false break down daily low on highest volume of the day
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Daily fib + weekly pivot + ds1 + H4 60 ma confluence
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Stopping volume on 5 min also confirmed with NS entry
Gee, I wonder who didn’t see today’s moves coming a mile away…:55:
Personally, I wouldn’t trade live until Jan 6th but here’s an example of some of the manipulation that’s been happening lately.
GU 1HR:
Nice trade on EJ for anyone trading the asian/EU session:
Daily still in an uptrend and was testing a demand area:
1 hour showed stopping volume and highest volume of the day during Asian session (yellow vertical line):
5 min - clear stopping volume with no close below / AR / push-test continuation with NS entries (although it drifted lower during off-hours between Asian/EU session but eventually went full bullish during EU session):
Hi,
is there still free skype group open?
Pete has done free ones every now and then, but it is not the norm. Not allowed to solicit as such, so you will have to have a little look around to find it, but wont be too hard if you look at his profile
For what it is worth, he has helped me a heck of a lot with VSA and I consider him a genuine person who will not give you false promises.
Hi There,
This thread hasn’t seen much activity lately which is a shame. I would love to see this thread come back to life! Wanted to share a trade I took last Friday morning. Let me first give my disclaimer that I rarely trade during news. However, this past Friday morning the evidence was so strong for a bull move that I couldn’t help but put a small position on the EU a few minutes before Non Farm Payroll news was released.
If you look at the H1 chart below you’ll see all the areas of accumulation that have taken place in the past week. There was significant volume on down moves and at low prices. Not much volume on up moves or at higher prices. Remember, smart money buys at low prices and sells at high prices. The volume tells us which they are doing.
If you look at the M15 you see such obvious high(er) volume on down moves and at lower prices. We see little to no volume at higher prices. This indicates smart money buying low and buying into down moves.
If you look at the M5 you see the last bit of accumulation on last Thursday, then price drifts upward during Asia and Europe, and then comes back down just before the news. I usually don’t even check charts on Fridays but I left a position running on Thursday and wanted to see if it was still running or if it hit my breakeven stop. I had already peeled off half of the profit then set breakeven. Unfortunately it did hit my breakeven but when I looked through the timeframes and saw all of this strength lining up, I couldn’t help myself. The last two key facts that convinced me to enter this trade were:
- As I watched price action for a half hour before news, it was obvious smart money was at work. Every time price moved down, they bought into it. They did this all the way down until price hit the 61.8 fib level RIGHT as the news hit. I made a red line where this 61.8 level is on the 5 min.
- A couple minutes before news was released, price dropped very quickly. I knew right then it was a fake break down and that the chances of a bull move were even greater now. Smart Money was just letting price drop temporarily before it went all in.
- Had my stop not been hit, I saw all the right reasons to continue to let the trade continue to run while I was at work Friday. So, given that my reasons for being in a trade had not changed, and that I was only stopped out due to manipulation, I figured I would go with what the chart was telling me.
I entered my position just in the nick of time. Within 30 seconds price shot up faster than I have ever seen it move. It moved about 75 pips literally in seconds. I actually got out at about 70 pips for two reasons: 1. MT4 started making some crazy siren noise which I have never heard before and it scared the crap out of me LOL and 2. I had to leave for a work meeting and didn’t want to leave a position on as Pete has taught me that Friday price action can be a bit kooky. So, I did miss the next ~25 pips of the move, but I was not too worried about it 
I will be trading again tomorrow and am hoping to see some promising long setups on the EU.
Thanks to Pete for teaching such great material! Pete has been mentoring me the last couple months and the improvement in my trading couldn’t be more obvious!
Please feel free to add to or critique this post. And again, I do not condone or recommend trading news regularly, but in certain occasions, it CAN makes sense if you’re willing to tolerate the risk.
Thanks,
Ryan
PS: The reason I circled the H1 down bar from today is that it shows strength and I believe this helps confirm that the EU will continue this bull move for awhile.
