I don’t mess around with “traditional” VSA, it’s contradictions and failed software attempts. I don’t trade gotcha bars, trigger numbers, ND NS in the wrong places, buy sell arrows etc etc… I felt like that needed to be clarified. People talk about other sources of learning that are not the same as what I do. In my opinion they are all inferior.
None of the bells and whistles matter. Price, Time and Activity (volume) is the holy trilogy. Nothing else needed but knowing how SM operates and very basic tech analysis. You can use almost any broker to measure market activity. They are all similar…more than they used to be.
I’ve proven that my approach works…and explained how tick activity works. Seems an odd discussion at this point, but I guess people have to learn it and experience it for themselves to really get it, especially if they haven’t traded with me live.
People need to have a market understanding/background, how everything works.Then watching Pete’s videos will be extremely helpful. This can take years. You can’t go in to this method, and have a “Get Rich Quick” mindset. You will lose! There’s a lot more than spotting NS/ND, and making a trade based off that. There are other VSA/Wyckoff specialists which host free webinars, but they hold a lot of “secrets”. I have to say Pete speaks the truth, the basic truth. I hope people can handle this truth…
If you’re that skeptical, watch futures volume for 6E for EUR/USD and apply what you see here on that. I’ve run the volumes side by side and I now use 6E volume now because it’s gotten me into more winning trades where tick didn’t show a clear entry. If you do use 6E volume the “low volume pushes” that Pete describes will be more in line with the “high volume” pushes" that Wyckoff describes. Regardless, trade with the Smart Money not against them, you’ll have less headache that way, that’s the concept of all of this anyway.
It came to me that trading randomly offers you a 25% chance of success as opposed to the 50% that is claimed out there. Short: Win - Loss, Long: Win - Loss. Two choices four outcomes, one decision, 25% chance. Pick a method, any method and stick with it or you’ll be looking at losing 75% of the time.
This is the same what went on at the end of May and early June. If you look at the H1 and H4 volumes, you can see it is about the 1/2 or 2/3 of the normal volume, the big guys are not trading. Friday and Tuesday are the big days, until that every fart from Greece moves the market all over, I wouldn’t risk my money neither in smart money’s place.
In fact I’m not risking my own too, it is just not worth it giving back the profit to the market because of impatience. I had 2 trades this week, one of them was a small 0,1% gain scalp, the other was a proper setup on gold what I used to post, went good, then the news came in, that creditors rejected Greece’s proposal, and it whipsawed so much that stopped me out at breakeven.
These periods are bit frustrating, but if we follow smart money, we have to sit them out, as they do.
So I’m sitting here thinking it might be a no trade day again when a student, Spaulding, pointed out the G/A short. It was text took, we took it. Maybe some of you got it. I don’t normally look at that pair.
One thing that has been more clear lately is the GBP and recently turned bearish. The AUD was showing strength today…combine the two and that explains the clean short setup on G/A, as he pointed out. I’m starting to get impressed by what some students are showing me lately. BTW this is my 6th winning session in a row, but that includes 3 no trade days. Patience pays.
Like you guys, haven’t seem many good setups with all this uncertainty and ridiculous choppy, unclear market directions this week. When it’s like this I switch to my scalping account and snatch very small pips (2-3 at most - basically not VSA), but while I was doing this on the 1-minute I saw nice pullback to 50% - 61.8% with high volume rejection and wick. Took a scalp long, TP really picked the top, hasn’t broken higher than the 23.60% level, guess I was very lucky. Green line entry, red exit.
No clue where this 47 pip spike came from. Literally out of nowhere, can’t seem to find any news to justify it? Maybe I’m blind?
Ping, this “manipulation” theory is a mistaken assumption. Let me give you a direct quote from a guy who has 5 yards of liquidity enabled, and I quote, “I don’t give a rats left nut about these piker retail traders, the only one who cares about them are Website owners and the Sales Holes on the sell side” unquote. This person is a “Darwinian Capitalist”, and is quite straight forward, as you can see. Basically the Market Makers, etc, only care that retail traders are generating fees, if a retail trader is able to trade, better for them, if not, well at least they have the fees. Unless a trader is trading 100k or more in their account, they will never interact with the Institutional trader. Now does this mean a person cannot be successful, no, it just means “They” are at another level were they don’t even see the retail trader.
Eh, I respectfully disagree. The assumption in your analogy is that your ‘guy’ is large enough to move the market. I have no idea what 5 yards of liquidity is, but I can tell you this: market manipulation is real. If you won’t believe another trader, then believe the evidence; there is at least 1 story every 60 days about traders getting arrested/investigated for it. It’s simple supply and demand, there is no magic. Whether they are trying to doop us, or doop other institutional traders, they are manipulating. They are manipulating the balance between supply and demand, and that includes traders of all sizes.
As a side note, I haven’t looked, but I have to assume a rats left nut is very small, so not caring about something that size is quite trivial. Secondly, who says any of us aren’t trading with 100k+
What’s up guys. Long EJ trade not too long before 16 GMT.
Price hit 50% fib from Daily, which lead to the highest vol of the day. Setup went on to form in an OK fashion, wasn’t the best setup imo. Riddled with NS’s. Lead to a decent winner, possible runner…
Yes I live in FL. Waking up for London open presents the best opportunities, but yes it is difficult lol. I use to wake up then but have gotten away from it recently. This trade was near 11AM so there’s still chances throughout the morning.
Today we spotted one of the cleanest setup in the last couple of weeks on UCAD. Smart money pulled its infamous news trap move. The yellow line is an important H1 support, tested and fake breaked several times, and the large bearish candle with the extra large volume is some high impact Canadian news candle.
The AR was clean, the stop loss range was about 30 pips overall. The push through was bit high volume, but the smart money just bought aggresively mowing down every sellers and didn’t stop for 60 more pips above the AR. It would be good to see these kind of clean setups more nowadays.
Don’t think I really need to explain this one. Daily shows bullish pressure, looking for longs. False break from Asia range into European accumulation. High volume points at the bottom low at the top. Markup, done. TP hit while away from screen. Nice % gain.
Market really slooowed down nowadays because of summer. Worth checking out the Gold and Dow Jones volume in perspective, except couple of days there is barely volume on it. Big money is on vacation now.
I thought I share my most successful day moneywise and pipwise to date. Happened this Tuesday on 14th of July, 2 trades, rest of the week was just sitting around though.
On EU as soon as London opened high volume appeared even in comparison with the rest of the week’s volume. Lower prices continously bought higher volume, then was the push through followed with bullish reaction, that was where I entered. Bit later it gave and NS too before started to move up. I rode all the way up, until that even higher volume appeared.
I took the same scenario on EJ too, the move was even bigger on that. Some people even took the short after the ultra high volume in the afternoon, for me the longs were enough for the day. ;D
So you can still catch good trades during the summer, but it happens in couple of days instead of almost daily.
BTW this is my 6th winning session in a row, but that includes 3 no trade days. Patience pays.
