Supply/Demand, VSA, Wyckoff with Petefader

Hey Haggis,
I have the same problem with my Gomarkets acct just before close of the Markets here on Saturday morning. I am going to fix it by opening an IBFX demo acct, the same as Petefader, but make my trades with GoMarkets as I like their spreads etc.

Hello everybody
sometimes i see definite stopping volume with confirmation on 5 minute TF but then 15 minute TF shows a small up move after stopping volume bar which is non-confirmation, then 30 minute shows confirmation due to slight down move on the confirmation bar and 1 hour TF shows slight up move on 2nd bar for failed confirmation. I read on the thread you are supposed to look for confrmation on the hourly before exiting but does this just become a judgement call when itā€™s a fine line like this?? The 15 and 30 TF showed no demands at a resistance area soon after this and price later fell dramatically so it definitely looks like it was stopping volume but waiting for confirmation off 1 hour TF it would not look so obvious. Anybody have any advice?

Stick to the 1hr and 5m, Ok, I use the 15m chart, but thatā€™s another story, but for the purpose of education stick to the strategy thatā€™s being taught on this thread.

Not all trades work out, and so by looking at other timeframes you may eliminate some losses but you may well also eliminate winners, and VSA may not be totally simple, but you want to keep things as simple as possible.

I was mentioning the 15m and 30m TFs because I could not see confirmation on the 1hr so i looked for other clues. If I was just using 1hr and 5m yes i would have seen stopping vol on 5m confirmed but not on the 1hr (but the price did later fall) and I would still have been in trade. Can stopping volume occur on a 1hr without seeing a definite reversal candle for confirmation? Iā€™m just trying to understand what else i could have maybe been looking out for.

Hey ensen! :slight_smile:

If you could post some charts or tell us what pair and time youā€™re referring to it would probably be easier to help you out! :slight_smile:

Following on from PPFā€™s wise words, I thought Iā€™d also put my opinion in for some of the new guys.
Not all trades work out, and so by looking at other timeframes you may eliminate some losses but you may well also eliminate winners, and VSA may not be totally simple, but you want to keep things as simple as possible.

Not all of the people on this thread seem to realise one very important thing yet. Using this VSA method wil NOT guarantee you ā€œOracleā€ like performance. You will get nice setups AND lose. It will happen, and we all have to accept that losses do and will occur. For example, since I have gone live with this, I have made 13 trades, 9 have won (70% strike rate).
This VSA method - and any other method out there will not guarantee 100% win rate. The idea behind it is to use a strategy that will stack the odds in your favour, so you can then let your winners run as much as possible, and help you stop your losses with the least amount of damage to your account. To be perfectly honest, if I can maintain a 70% strike rate, I will be a very happy boy (never risking more than 2% in any one trade).
Money management also goes hand in hand with your trading system. The best system in the world will fail with poor money management, so make sure you have that right as well.

Ah yes, weā€™ve all been there, what you are doing is looking too hard, I think you are probably at the stage where you are trying to work out where the market is going and want to have a trade on in case the market moves without you, it is essential that you move on from this phase of your trading career, you will need to get used to the market moving 150 PIPS without you having a trade on. What you want to be doing is wait for the highest probability setups, so that your trades have a higher win rate, sometimes you will be lucky and get a few nice big moves, but not all moves are preceded by a a nice setup.

Good morning. Stopping volume not that highā€¦Iā€™d like to see a definitive sign of strength here at fib. for a long.


Hi Petefader,
I have been watching that as well. Drawn the fib and waited to see what happened when it hit the 50 Fib. As you have shown in your graph, it has bounced off the fib and not given anything clear for a novice like me. Just looking at it now, it is even starting to push into the 50-61.8 level. Will be interesting just to watch at the moment.

Yep, patience. If price can move down into this fib area, then itā€™s crucial to see demand come in and not see price just sitting in there on low volume.

Just to note, I would never sell into a 1hr fib area, so this long is my only optionā€¦and the chart will tell me if/when to enter.

Pete, u would not sell even if it breaks the 61.8 level and tests it?

What happens then is you wait until the move has completed, then redraw your fib from top to bottom, and then youā€™d be likely to looking for shorts off of the new Fib levels.

Does not invalid stopping volume signal a redistribution phase? So we can sell moreā€¦

Well there is one nice hammer (pin bar) in the 50-61.8 zone but the volume just regular. Not a sign of huge strength if you ask me! :slight_smile: There was some rejection in the zone but further down move may happen.

Good evening

Here is my analysis. But I am having issues. We should see an auto rally after our stopping volume. This stopping volume is high enough but its characteristic has issuesā€¦


Best Regards

Very nice thread. I always wanted to understand how to use volume in forex. The videos are awesome.
Thanks,
John

I wouldnā€™t really take that as stopping volume, the spread is too wide.

Looking at the EURUSD charts, be prepared to stay out all day, in Forex patience pays, if you look at the 5m it just looks a mess, the recent price action on the 1hr is in no manā€™s land, and weā€™ve got some awkward news today, I wouldnā€™t be surprised if this goes on all week, then next week itā€™s here we go, top quality setup after setup after setup.

I donā€™t know, I donā€™t have a crystal ball (well I do, but it donā€™t work!), the scenery may well change at a drop of a hat, but always be prepared to stay out and donā€™t get frustrated, it really is better safe than sorry in these kind of conditions.

I even do not have a crystal ball (its time to buy one from the ezoteric shop).

What I see it is a mushroom shape. It means lack of demand from SM.

Best Regards

There was a text book trade today. Redistribution off supply coming in at fib zone, then ND entry 14:55 gmt. I was already short from a Mad Scalper entry lolā€¦havenā€™t used that in ages but this markdown hadnā€™t shown demand yet, so itā€™s a good way to get in on trending movesā€¦besides ND NS.