Support and resistance levels and candlestick cofirmination

i have so many questions…but il be more specific… im a newbie and have been trading on the daily chart as i feel more confident on it. i always do analysis and setups on a Sunday im using fib levels to get and support and resistance on candlestick price movement and not to mention trendlines on an uptrend i tend to buy at support of the fib level and when it touches my trendline for confirmation. the problem i exprience is maybe i tend to exit trades quickly and loose money probably because of my setups or due to candlestick that form as confirmation but lately changes the price movement.I am trading the GBPCAD as it has formed a very strong up trend past few days the price is back to my trendline support base and fib 23.6 level but the candlestick formed is a bullish candle on friday i dont know wheather to enter the trade or wait for a second candle to form… can someone go the daily chart of the GBPCAD and analyse and explain to me this.

Hello.

I am looking to GBPCAD Daily right now and I would personally not enter the market. I do not know how you drew your trendline, but on my chart, connecting the previous two major swing lows, price is still far away from it. Have you drawn it next to the most recent rally up? If so, that’s not necessarely a bad thing, but I find these ripid, almost vertical trends to be unreliable.

In addition to that, price has recently bounced from a major resistance and is now hovering around a smaller support. This support is pretty old, though, and the last candle suggests price is ignoring.

My advice is to wait.

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As this is in a smooth long-term trend I had a buy order above Thursday’s high, and this triggered on Friday so I am long GBP/CAD. My plan is to hold this as long as possible so I don’t have a profit target, while my stop is set way back below the Jan-Feb congestion area, though I may move it higher if price rises this week. Obviously, though the stop is far away, I have adjusted my position size so that my capital risk is 2% of my account, but I do hope to bring the stop nearer to the price as this rises.

Moving the stop tighter has a second purpose as I will pyramid the position if price continues to rise, and the pyramid trades will trigger each time price rises through the same distance as from entry to stop-loss.

If I had not entered on Friday, I would be hoping price falls back from Friday’s close, and I would then set a buy order above to wait for Friday’s high. If price goes straight up this week, its probably too late to enter, as giovannicali suggests, until there’s a new retracement.

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Firstly where do you expect price to go ? Do you expect a retest of the highs at 1.8400 ? The trend is down on a 4 hour chart and on a monthly chart the 1.84 level is a 50% retracement of the 2015-2017 swing high to low.

What this means is that the 1.84 level is likely to hold for a while and the 4 hour trend will encounter head waves trying to become bullish again.

The daily trend is strong but has lost some momentum and is in a short term correction, where does this end ?

Now as you should know anything can happen out there but for me personally I would be looking to buy small chunks in that trend direction via the signals you like to use but in a smaller time frame. This way your pip risk will be small and you will be rewarded quicker when the market rally’s in this direction. Look on the chart for previous highs as a place to exit out of your initiated longs. Make sure you have at least a 1:1 target to shoot for from entry to exit when contemplating your stop loss.

I have no analysis on how far price will travel on any of the trades I do. I ignore resistance when following an uptrend and support when following a downtrend and never use TP orders, I just get out when the trend either ends or if it weakens so badly that its more likely not to continue in the foreseeable term.

Cool, that’s a strength to trade with such conviction and belief in your methodology. However you must also be aware of the state of play in your chosen instrument especially in the higher time frames when looking to execute and hold a long term position such as on a daily chart. Pull backs are inevitable as you know. To my eye the daily trend is over 6 months old, it looks a little late for a long term entry, but then again I’m a short term trader. Either way the 4 hour down trend needs to be defeated before upward momentum gathers traction. Price is also under the monthly central pivot point which will also likely cause some concern. I do a thorough analysis on all time frames which can be both good and bad, anyway best to be aware of whats to come before you enter. Cheers.

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Its never too late to join a trend.

Actually, the age of a trend depends on how you define trend. And how you do that should align with your strategy and what would be the ideal trend for it and for you, not with an overall theory of trend identification. So what might look like alternating up and downtrends to one trader could be a single uptrend to another, or a series of uptrends with periodic congestion zones.

On GBP/CAD, its clearly in an uptrend, but my strategy rejects as an uptrend any price action below the 200EMA. The current GBP/CAD uptrend - for my strategy - could not commence earlier than last November, and other MA’s I use show me I could not have had this in a buy watch-list before the 29th.

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Yes I understand everyone has a different definition of trend. On my monthly chart there is no trend, infact this instrument is just retracing a long move down. This is the way I look at market big picture.

We all have our own rules so I’m only giving you my perspective and opinion, that is all. No dis respect to your view. Good luck.

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No doubt, fibo is useful; but if you draw the support/resistant levels by horizontal & trend line; I am sure you’ll get more accuracy in your trading.

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i have entered the market in the morning todays opening session as i analyse the strength of the trend i aim for prices to move up reaching my first target at 18200 on my daily chart. cause on my fib level 23.6 the prices never touched this level but rather gave me a clue of better support. as im analysing i see the prices are rallying up if they break my first target i will hold until it moves further to prices at 18350. i can now see some little momentum of a bullish candle that of the prices are moving up.

Further more my swing low is at AUG 2017 and my swing high is at MAR 2018 D1.

my stop loss is at 1.78990 i havent set for my take profit yet.

Again no disrespect to you goslowtrader but when you guys enter a long term trend position you want things to be on your side. 4 hour chart is in clear down trend. This thing will not gather any momentum till it clears those damn clouds. Also your stop should always be at least below a swing, in this case 1.7840 and below. I wish you good luck with your trade.

Candlestick patterns are the best indicators for me. I know many successful traders who trust candlestickes patterns more than anything else. Every candlestick has its own story, you just need to read it properly and wisely. Do you people believe in candlesticks?

A trader must be well aware of the basic knowledge about the market including supports and resistances. Market is totally dependent on the paychology of the investors which is variable in nature. Candlestick patterns are the best tools for the prediction of the market. I have a stromg believe in them specially three dark horses. Thanks!

Three dark horses???