Is this a valid short? the price is under the ema20 and the value of the c% is .04 and the signal is positive to negative?
the .5 to 3 that you keep refering to; Is that one half of a percent which would be represented as .005 to 3% represented as .03? or is it .5 to 3 on the c%
so another words which is correct
.005 to .03 or is it
.05 - .03 or
.5 to 3
I am greatful you gave the exact breakdown of percent probabiltiy so anotherwords the .5-3 is 96% successful and therefore when we see this set up we can expect success. How often does a high probability trade occur roughly?
So if a chart shows a larger range for clevel (today’s USD/JPY H1 shows -35.43 to +33.686) couldn’t we use those numbers and just expect a larger % pullback? Even if we were still shooting for 3%, we could still use these ranges as they are, again if I’m understanding more now, merely “cosmetic”? What I mean is, regardless of what range of clevel shows on the chart, -.5 to 3% would be the same…the -5 to 5 level just makes things more even?
Now that I’ve typed this, I don’t think this is right at all…There is something inherent with this system that depends on something at least near the -5 to 5 range I think.
how often does this setup occur well it depends on what the settings are bigger periods wil increase probs but youll have sig lower amount of opportunities. thats why bigger time frames will be your friend too
Even if we were still shooting for 3%, we could still use these ranges as they are, again if I’m understanding more now, merely “cosmetic”?
yup ranges are cosmetic.
3% could be 30 or 300 depends how you scale it
What I mean is, regardless of what range of clevel shows on the chart, -.5 to 3% would be the same…the -5 to 5 level just makes things more even?
yes you got it although i have to say this the 96% only works from .5 to 3 within certain parameters. like lets say your range is 100 to 100 and you play .5 on cross to 3 exactly not the 100 range equivalent of 3% more chance increases to be right tho youll cut your profits and more chance to hit those numbers
doing it like this give each set its own probs which adds another aspect but its more advanced.
Now that I’ve typed this, I don’t think this is right at all…There is something inherent with this system that depends on something at least near the -5 to 5 range I think.
if you scale it you play it the same if you want to increase accuracy then do 15 to 15 and still do exactly .5 to 3 and not the equivalent.
yup im actually in with you but in pair gbp/usd since 1.56543 try 2% tonight cause your gonna hit some stagnation just somethign to keep in mind not as much volume right now
pipy thanks again for all the effort I like your views on probability and i think you have alkot more to contribute so I want to encourage you to continue with your work and please be patient when we dont seem to get it eventually it will click.
np, im here all day long trading and managing so i can be quick to answer
heres my gpb/usd chart you can check out why i entered this is a major trend and minor trend stacked you can stack your odd when both are in the same direction and you enter a trade what i mean is keep the same prob but you see more movement and higher odds to hit 3 well talk about this later but heres a preview.
got +54 pips right now good end for the night
i have +420ish for the day everything just went my way today. good day
I just wanted to take a moment before I head off to sleep to also say thanks for all your work and posts. Things are making a lot more sense and I hope you continue with your posts into more advanced theory and practice. I broke one of my major rules about not trading last night (fought for over an hour for $4 net profit) after a certain point. I thought the market looked bad for trading so I decided to quit. My girlfriend wanted to finish what she was doing so I decided to “try one more trade.” HUGE mistake. I nearly lost everything after doubling my $100 account over the past 2 weeks. Won’t let it get me down though, as it was my own fault. I lived to trade today and made profit with this system (small though it was it felt good). I hope to be back where I started in a couple of months, then upwards from there.
what setup did you see last night… note you should not come close to wiping out your account on one trade im assuming your using a micro account then with 100 in it… if thats so you should only be trading one lot of 1000 units so at most if you got raped for 150 pips you lost 15 bucks and thats a huge stop loss on like a 4 hour id like to see the chart of your entrance and exit maybe i can make some pointers.
4 bucks on a 1k lot to is 40 pips:) which is decent
I was scalping Sunday night when I got burned…had nothing to do with this system (or any other for that matter). I actually broke pretty much every rule of trading that night, but while I consider myself intelligent, I guess I’m the type who can look at all the data and evidence in the world, but still has to touch that hot oven to imprint it in his brain that it will burn. :rolleyes:
I was only trading with a $100 account so the loss isn’t financially devistating, but you’re right, I should’ve cut my losses way sooner. I’ll get them back though.
On another note, I was intrigued by your mention of Bolinger bands in your post last night. While I don’t rely on them alone, I do attach them to the chart of any pair I’m trading with any system. I’m hoping you post more about their usefulness in this system.
thank pipy for all you nice explained posts
but a few things are not completely clear to me :
for example if you wait for a buy signal, do you buy a soon as the C% reaches the 0.5% value (and other conditions ok), or can you buy when it still in negative value and is around -0.5% ? it seems that sometime you enter a buy trade even if c% is in negative territory ?
If we want to get the right scale on a chart it seems we should change the clevel value of your indi right ? don’t we have to change the other values ?
also how do you setup the indi on usd/jpy chart for example as the scale is really huge ?
Thank you
I just clsoed my trade from last night for 200 pips!!! nice trade but I wasn’t confident as to when i should close and also my settings for the c% so I know i have work to do still in understanding this brilliant system. For example is it normal to hold a trade for 24 hours or is this supposed to be shorter term?
for beginner you should only enter it price moves above 20 ema and you hit .5%
anything else is more advanced. and ill get to it.
If we want to get the right scale on a chart it seems we should change the clevel value of your indi right ? don’t we have to change the other values ?
nope you dont have to change any other values i would recommend onlyusing multiples of 10 to adjust the chart tho anything that isnt a multiple of ten will change the numbers and thus will change the probabilities i just added clevel so the formula actually says .5 and 3 to take the confusion out but .00005 to .0003 can be the same thing too.
also how do you setup the indi on usd/jpy chart for example as the scale is really huge ?
Thank you
yeah i noticed this i added clevel just to make a quick change to make it easier for you guys but you cant put decimals or fractions in it so ill see what i can do for you the best thing i can think of for you now is just to let 5% be .5% and 30% be 3% if you know what i mean
depends on the length of time to hit the desired % level ive held as long as a week and pocketed as much as 900+ pips from one trade
today i placed a trade for gbp/usd on the four hour set stop and went to work came back 9 hours later and pocketed 199.5pips so you can play any set i recommend longer periods tho as shorter periods are just noise and will reduce probabilities of success.
longer plays will also prevent you from over trading as well.
This is an easy fix. Just change the initial variable definition for Clevel in your extern to double instead of int. Then you can still even stick to multiples of 10 (i.e. 0.1, 0.01 etc) or anything else to make it scale better.
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