I continue to read voraciously, backtest different analysts different outlooks, and study causes of major market daily movement. Everything appears to go back to the news.
Granted I’m a newbie, but can’t you just hedge the news by having two account with two brokers. Execute opposite trades right before the news comes out with small trailing stop loses, and then the losing trading stops and the winning trade runs?
Also, in my research I’ve run across countless e-book advertisements. It is funny how each seller makes similar claims and uses the same format: the un-ending 1 page infomercial.
Based on all my reading so far, I find price action systems and news systems to appear to be the most plausible. It seems if you use a primarily technical system using a combination of the most common indicators (RSI, Stoch, EMA/SMA’s, MACD) you are just doing what everyone else is doing. I can’t see how you can make money running with the heard. Hence I find the figures that 85-95% of traders lose money and eventually blow up. Everyone is running with the herd and then when the market makers going against the herd, everyone gets clobbered.
It seems the price action systems are simply trying to identify when the market makers make a move. The news systems are anticipating the market makers move.
At least this is my limited understanding.
All these e-books seems to have a money back guarantee. Is this true? Why not download it, try it, if it doesn’t work, get your money back. I subscribe to Action Forex newsletter. I recently got an advertisement for an e-book regarding an news system with 60-day money back guarantee for $197. I want to give a news system a try. Seems like a good starting point. If you pay by CC even if it is a scam you can always issue a charge back.
Am I a sucker, or is taking advantage of a couple e-books for differently types of trading system a good way to get a jump start on trying to devise your which system you think is most profitable?
The $197 e book won’t teach you anything that you can’t learn right here on babypips for free. There are plenty of free systems here on babypips that you can fool around with and learn from.
Also, think logically, if someone had some great type of system worked out, that was a guaranteed money maker if you followed to the letter, why would they sell it for $197? Why not just trade it themselves and become filthy rich?
Why, because it isn’t the system it’s the trader that makes the trader a success.
Just about any system can be made to work by a skilled trader who has developed some skill and takes responsibility for their own actions and their results.
Wanting to buy an e-book speaks of impatience and maybe laziness. You want the answers now, all put before you, wrapped up in an easy to read and use package. That is what these info products all tout as a selling point. Not going to happen.
IMO, yes you are bit of sucker if you buy a $197 e-book on news trading, when you can do searches and probably find full trading systems for free on babypips. Again though, the real thing to master is yourself not a system.
Ya, I thought the same thing. If it’s such a great system why do you need the income of selling an e-book?
I’m not lazy. Just trying to be efficient. It would seem to me over the year or so thousands of traders have tried hundreds of systems. Instead of wasting time trying the same systems that end up failing, it would be more efficient to start with something that has been proven to be a good starting point?
I suppose the problem may be no one was diligent enough to document their results. Tried this, was terrible. Tried that, worked okay. Tried this, worked even better and I have stuck with it and tweaked it a little and still using it.
The myriad of systems being discussed on the major forums across the Internet is just mind boggling. It could take years to wade through them all especially if you are looking for a longer term swing trading system that could take weeks and weeks before you could conclude if it is consistent, as opposed to a day trading system.
I’ve tried afew systems now. Simplicity is best. IMO, you should learn a system that starts with simply trying to go with price action, using candles as your major indicator, because most other indicators are lagging.
The more complicated the system the worse results I got.
Try either, “never lose again,” or, “james IB system.” Both rely on candles and price action and most importantly are simple to use.
And again most failure is due to the trader.
The thing is most people are very impatient and will move on from something very quickly when it doesn’t work great right off the bat, when if they had stuck with and learned the basics of the system they find a way to make it work. Most traders are always looking for something external justify why they are trading a system. x did it and won so I will do it and win. You can take a great system and make it tottally fail if you don’t master what’s going on inside of your head.
I can confirm you are right based on the reading and webinars I’ve watched. The people that make the most sense, give the best presentation, have the most logical theories, are all ones that advocate simple systems primarily based on price action. And I keep seeing it over and over again - simple is better.
Let me know what you think of this. At this point I’m doing two things:
Searching for a few recommended price action swing trade systems to use as a base to try out. Can you comment on the difference between the two systems you recommended or are they virtually identical?
Backtesting Analyst Reports that I have archive access to, to find one or two Analysts with good track records and simply using their reports as confirmation in order to determine RR ratio I want to take (smaller if confirmation is weak, larger if confirmation is strong.)
So to start, I’m thinking I’ll trade price action that is inline with Analyst’s weekly outlooks. If weekly outlook is long, then I’ll trade price action that indicates to go long and vice versa. Keep RR ratio to 1 to 3 or less. Try to gradually build up a little profit so I can occasionally get more agressive and just risk the profits I’ve built, so worse case, I’m back to even and need to build profits back up again. Once I’ve made significant profit, start risking less percentage of it (in other words start taking profit).
One thing I’ve found though is virtually all the Analyst Reports are purely technical analysis. I’ve yet to find a report that is primarily technical analysis, but also factors fundamentals a little bit into the equation when there is a significant chance the fundamentals could produce unexpected results based on purely technical analysis. If they are already doing this, they aren’t including any commentary on it in their reports.
Basically, I think looking at the oscillating and momentum indicators is much less important than price action, but not 100% irrelevant – I think it has some value in partially factoring it in. So my thought is why spend a bunch of time making things complicated trying to read 4 different indicators, drawing Fib lines and trying to identify wave patterns, when there are seasoned Analysts out there that can do that for you - especially if these things are not going to hold a whole lot of weight in your overall system!
The two systems I mentioned, as I use them is as follows: TRO’s never lose again system is simply based on probability. If one candle is green and the next candle is red and approaching a line it may keep crossing. A little more too it, but the little more to it is how you use it.
James systems follows price but waits for inside and outside bars to form.
Basically one is looking for one particualar candle pattern and looking for a peak or valley, while the other purely follows price action of the moment.
Myself I kind of mixed them a little and am doing my own thing. works ok for me so far. Try out a few systems and see what you like and what works right for you.
Nothing wrong with backtesting if you don’t use it thinking that good restults mean you will be able to put in trades like you did in a backtest scenario. I personally do not backtest as price is now and will do anything. When I start in the morning I just scroll back and look for the overall trend or bias, as I trade short term. I don’t hold trades for days.
Backtesting doesn’t really account for price action. What looks great on a backtest might have gone many pips against you before goind your way, and you don’t know the spread at the moment in the backtest. Or price could have moved so quickly that you couln’t have made it in, or so slow you got bored and walked away.
IMO, why bother backtesting when you can forward test with demo account and actually learn to at least use a platform and watch real time price action.
Nothing wrong with taking advice from technical analists, but they are predicting ahead of time. Learn to watch price and you won’t even want to waste your time with predictions.
I recommend you do your own analysis and decision making. Otherwise you are not taking responsibility for your own risk and trade desicions.
Mr Kiss,
Opening long and short on the news (called bracketing) is a tried and tested system that used to work donkeys ago - now only works if you’re lucky. The big players know people put in stops during the news, and often try and take them out. You’ll find both orders get triggered and both get stopped out before the real move takes place.
If you’re looking for swing trading systems, Jacko’s is as good as any (over on Forex Factory) - averages 2-3 trades/week, though I recommend using a slightly bigger stop loss at present.
I’ve seen you on quite a few of the posts and you always offer great advice and guidance. Thanks.
What trading systems [B]from babypips[/B] have you found to be successful.
What trading systems do you use yourself [B]consistently[/B]
I myself use a modified Cowabunga System. The download from BP isn’t playing nice with my MT4 so I use a free alert system that wakes up me and the wife overnight then manually eyeball the stoch/rsi/MACD_Histo for confirmation.
I have also started demo-ing the “synapse” system found on nick b’s other website. I have modified the stop loss and money management rules to fit my trading style (strict money management)
Lastly, I have found that simply following pip crawler is effective however I have modified the TP2 point to be the average of his original TP1 and TP2 points.
I’m not nearly as experienced as any of those guys you mentioned. So, far I’m using a mixture of TRO’s never lose again/all you need is a horizontal line & James IB. It’s kind of my own thing and a work in process. Doing pretty good so far. But, to try and break it down for you wouldn’t work to well because a big component of the way I trade is me. I don’t have a lot of hard and fast rules, I just use them as guidelines.
For instance my usual sl is -20 pips, but if I think that it is likely the trade will go my way and -20 pips is the breathing room the trade needs I’ll let it go past -20 pips. I do that less and less often as my entries get better. Also, I have a shorter term scalp set up that I might do while I wait for my slightly longer term set up to pop.
I think you can learn a lot from different systems if you use them as learning tool and don’t look at them as an end all that has to work every time.
The system has to corospond with what type of trading personality you have. When I first wanted to try forex I thought swing trading might be an easy way to start. Then I found it was just too darn slow for me, I want to sit in front of my computer and see results within a couple of hours. Then I tried quick scalping on the 1M chart. It was just too fast and I felt like I was constantly in whipsaw and everything was always ahead of me. Now I’m tasting some other porridge and it seems just the right temperature for me
Nothing wrong with asking advice, but you need to get into a system and learn it and learn to trade. Take responsibility for your own actions and risk. Just because joe blow from idaho made +2000 pips with x system every week, is no guaratee you won’t lose with the system.
I just signed up with Jimmy Young. Man wow great presentation!!! I mean seriously this guy has got it together. I honestly can’t share with you his proprietary systems coz that would be completly unfair, but I will say in terms of newstrading he has got his stuff together and is extremly profitable. I asked Tonymand in another thread I started about Jimmy and this was his reply
I cant speak highly enough of JY and been part of his group for over 2 years
His emphasis is on teaching you to trade with a particular emphasis on the stats and you get to see how often someone with his experience has to change what he does to remain profitable
You may not be familiar with Tony coz he isnt posting as much as he used to but as far as Im concerned his word is golden in terms of a charector reference. That and Tess (another person who no longer posts) also said good things about him in the past.
So armed with this in my mind I went ahead and subscribed to his newstrader publication (if you will) It is a powerpoint presentation and webcast and newsletter. So far I am really really excited about his very talented and expereiced view on trading. He is a 25+ year bank trader and his philosophy seems to strike a balance between news and technical.
Anyway Ill keep you guys posted if you want. Jimmy Young seems like the real deal!!!
In this short experience in forex I�ve been reading about different strategies to trade as you and I found price action could be a solid plan depending on the way you use it.
Combining with fundamentals and technical methods all those reviews give accurate and specific information in possible trades but that knowledge is spread all over the web so everybody�s homework is to gather it and form a unique and personal strategy
Mr Kiss: Nooo! That’s not quite right - it’s all explained in the first few pages. I think someone put together a PDF as well if you search for that. It’s trend trading yes, with a static SL. He uses 100 but it makes more sense to use a volatility-based stop in my opinion.
Entries based on 50% fib rets and key S/R but also discretion and timing. Exits all on trailing stops.
The AH is to recover failing trades - is as you described, once price has moved a certain distance past your SL you put in stop buy/sell orders to recoup the losses.
JK: Good on you. I’m mercilessly sceptical about commercial operations like him, but it sounds like you’ve fallen on your feet. It’d be great to hear how you get on.
Do you know how huge that thread is? Searching the thread for [I]pdf[/I] yields no results. Then I remembered that each thread has a paper clip which launches a pop-up listing all the attachments in the thread. From there you will find more than one PDF. This one I think is best as BarryPips did a more in-depth explanation. The other was just the first few posts by Jacko copied and pasted into a PDF.
