Greetings. Simple martingale based EA that works pretty well. Tried back testing 13 pairs and running simulations with identical probs a couple of hundred thousand times on excel.
Looking for people to give EA to, to help me test real time on their demo accounts. DO NOT USE LIVE.
EA Definitely works, but depending on the configuration takes a period of time to explode or reach highest level. Works best with 9 - 13 steps and randomizing the switch on days, 40 - 80% return per annum for 2-3 years can be achieved with this and similar techniques.
I’ve written and tested several Martingale EAs. Personally, IMHO, I don’t think it can work. However, I’m open to being proven wrong. So… What specifically does this EA do?
The EA generates a trade at random with a 1:2.5 RR ratio. The growth in the number of levels is x1.4 previous risk and the EA moves the SL to break-even if the profit ever equals the risk for each trade (in that case the steps don’t increase in case the trade hits break even)
the trailing stop improves the strike rate to ~ 50% whereas above 29% is required for positive EV. The EA is designed to be hybridized so you can manage the risk yourself as it gets higher in the levels, approaching your maximum level.
so if you set your maximum level at 13 steps you can set a trigger point at 8 steps. Once the number of steps gets to 8, the system sends you an alert text message and pauses any more step increases without your consent. The idea is to avoid stumbling into choppy markets and blowing you out and enabling you get out at as lower overall loss before starting from step 1 again.
I still have to ad 2 components
Switch On - I noticed that the normal EA bounces around the equilibrium strike rate so I am going to incorporate a continuous performance checker to switch on the EA when the performance is above and trending up on the equilibrium strike rate.
Switch off - as above but reverse.
You can set the maximum loss at blowout - the setting i’m using now is 20% loss at blowout for 1% gain on each successful trade @ 10 steps.
I have modified it a little since the initial post. I haven’t been able to find a way to predict future performance yet but the modifications have increased the blowout time so that on 16 currency pairs in an 8 month period a 100k account should grow to a 300k account 60 - 70% of the time.
On the other 40 - 30% occasions you should achieve at least 70% return before catastrophe (assuming you allow the EA to continue trading after each blowout.)
Modifications:
Standard RR is still 1:2.5 but if you are in level 1 (Count 1) and the trade moves in your favour by 1 then the EA closes the trade and cashes in on the profit.
So the EA acts on an RR of 1:1 on the first Level. The overall strike rate is roughly 50% consequently, and reduces the number of times you have to start position size increasing by 50%.
If you lose the first Level (so you are in Level 2), then the EA waits to hit TP for an RR of 1:2.5 (to make back your previous loss + 2.5 times that risk in profit). However on Level 2 if the profit goes 1 in your favour i.e. at the 1:1 RR point, the EA changes the SL to breakeven.
The above setup continues for Level 2,3 & 4.
From Level 5,6,7 the EA switches the SL to breakeven as above at the same level but the TP RR reduces to 1:2.06
From Level 8,9,10 (assuming 10 Step) the EA switches to breakeven as above at the same Level but the TP RR reduces to 1:1.86.
The above 2 modifications move your martingale from recovering all losses and giving you x2.5 the original risk, to just recovering all previous losses RR 1:1.86. It is setup this way to increase the probability of wining on each Level as you move up the Levels, too avoid blowout.
In either case you can set the Trigger point to pause all trading and give you a risk warning by text (using external provider) or email.
The first file runs automatically and trades at random. It increases the lotsize when the market conditions are ‘good’ it creates +EV very simply and is best used across a spread of pairs, I ideally 10 or so.
The second on “M” is the martingale Originally mentioned.