Taking the uptrend?


I have an Indicator with good and bad predictive spells to give me breakeven success long term aggregated over 28 currency pairs.

I want to be able to identify when the particular currency pair is going into a good spell with my indicator, so that i can selectively apply it on the upside and stay out of the downsides.

I tried to re-tool the standard oscillators to do the job; that is to apply them to the simple binary sequence of win (+1) lose (-1) that I have for each pair; the results are hit and miss.

I need something more reliable. I would really appreciate your suggestions. I am looking for an end result where I will only trade the currency pairs over the next week/ next month where the strike rate is increasing and likely to remain above the minimum level I want.

You could perform a Wald-Wolfowitz runs test to determine if the values in the sequence is mutually independent. You can also calculate your trading strategy’s Z-score, and see if your winners and losers are normally distributed or actually dependent on each other (runs).

Thank you for the post. I will look into what you mentioned. So far I have done very simple graphical representations of the strike rate; last 5, 10, 15 trades etc… and there does seem to be a very clear wave like pattern - vis-a-vis dependence, definitely more precise testing as you suggested.

Any more useful suggestions most welcome