ukmto reporting a tanker got struck by three unknown projectiles 17nm east of khasab, oman, outbound through the strait of hormuz. no casualties, no environmental impact reported, but this is like the 3rd or 4th hormuz incident this month at this point, feels like its become background noise even though each one individually would normally move oil more than it does now
gold’s the more interesting story to me today tho. it had been running on treasury-led gains (bessent’s buyback expansion stuff) but warsh’s hawkish jackson hole speech friday retightened financial conditions and gold’s erasing most of that move now. seeing conflicting reads on this too, one piece is calling it a straightforward “warsh bad for gold” story, another is framing todays dip as new buyers actually stepping in, so not everyone agrees this is over
eur/usd specifically is stuck below the 200-day ma at 1.16305, and one analysis today framed it bluntly, buyers failing to get price back above that level is basically giving sellers the opening to take control again. dollar’s broadly weaker against majors today despite all this though, which is a bit of a contradiction worth watching, weak dollar + eur/usd still capped by resistance doesnt fully add up unless eur specifically has its own weakness offsetting the dollar side
also saw a comment from forexfactory floating the idea that fridays selloff was more of a liquidity sweep of retail stops before institutional buyers step back in at discount levels, rather than the start of a real trend change. no way to confirm that live but its a framework worth having in mind this week
anyone trading gold or eur/usd specifically off todays setup, or is everyone just watching the 200 day ma and the hormuz situation from the sidelines