The #C-COFFEE technical analysis of the price chart in 4-hour timeframe shows #C-COFFEE,H4 is rebounding above the 200-period moving average MA(200), which is rising itself. We believe the bullish momentum will continue as the price breaches above the upper Donchian boundary at 187.66. A pending order to buy can be placed above that level. The stop loss can be placed below 174.77. After placing the order, the stop loss is to be moved every day to the next fractal low, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the expected profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop loss level without reaching the order, we recommend canceling the order: the market has undergone internal changes which were not taken into account.
Fundamental Analysis
Analysts are upgrading estimates of the damage to Brazil’s coffee plantations from unusual cold snap in June and July. Will the COFFEE price continue rebounding?
Unexpectedly strong cold snap damaged coffee trees in Brazil and analysts are gauging the damage to new crop. Coffee trader Comexim updated its estimate of damage to Brazil’s 2022 crop saying Brazil’s South Minas region has lost 19% of its coffee crop potential, up from the previous estimate of 12.5% damage. It also estimates potential losses of 13% for the crop in Sao Paulo state, Brazil’s second largest arabica coffee producer, 13% for the Cerrado area, another important producing region in Minas Gerais, and 11% for Parana state, a smaller producer. Brazil is the top coffee producer in the world. Expectations of lower crop are bullish for coffee price.