Technical Analysis #C-LHOG : 2019-11-14

Tight global supply bullish for LHOG

US pork price increases are bullish for lean hog price. Will the LHOG continue gaining?

Lower global supply for pork as China’s pig herd was decimated by African swine fever has been bullish for US pork prices this autumn when they seasonally decline. China led the list of countries with biggest pig herds before the fever. The African swine fever reduced China’s pig herd by almost 40%, according to official data. The US Department of Agriculture data indicated wholesale pork cutout price rose $9.03 on Tuesday from a week ago to $88.53 per 100 pounds. And pork packer margins (revenue derived from sales less the cost of a fed pig) rose $24.10 to $84.55 per head from a week ago. Lower pig supply is bullish for LHOG.


On the daily timeframe the LHOG: D1 is testing the 100-day moving average MA(100).
The Parabolic indicator gives a buy signal.
The Donchian channel indicates uptrend: it is tilted up.
The MACD indicator gives a bullish signal: it is above the signal line and the gap is widening.
The RSI oscillator is falling but has not reached the oversold zone.

We believe the bullish momentum will continue after the price breaches above the upper boundary of Donchian channel at 71.61. This level can be used as an entry point for placing a pending order to buy. The stop loss can be placed below the lower Donchian boundary at 66.38. After placing the order, the stop loss is to be moved every day to the next fractal low, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop loss level (66.38) without reaching the order (71.61), we recommend cancelling the order: the market has undergone internal changes which were not taken into account.
Technical Analysis Summary

Order Buy
Buy stop Above 71.61
Stop loss Below 66.38