Recommendation for USD/JPY: Buy
Buy Stop : Above 111
Stop Loss : Below 108.8
RSI : Neutral
MACD : Buy
MA(200) : Neutral
Fractals : Neutral
Parabolic SAR : Sell
Bollinger Bands : Buy
Chart Analysis
On the daily timeframe, USDJPY: D1 approached the upper border of a wide neutral range. The currency pair is in an upward trend. A number of technical analysis indicators have formed signals for further growth. We do not exclude a bullish movement if USDJPY rises above the last upper fractal, the Parabolic signal, the upper Bollinger line: 111 or 111.1. This level can be used as an entry point. Initial risk limitation is possible below the lower Bollinger band: 108.8. After opening a pending order, move the stop following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals to the next fractal low. Thus, we change the potential profit / loss ratio in our favor. The most cautious traders, after making a deal, can go to the four-hour chart and set a stop-loss, moving it in the direction of movement. If the price overcomes the stop level (108.8) without activating the order (111), it is recommended to delete the order: there are internal changes in the market that were not taken into account.
Fundamental Analysis
Economic data will be released this week in Japan and the head of Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to speak. Will the growth of USDJPY quotes continue? On June 23, materials from the BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are expected to be published. BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda may perform on June 24. Investors hope to receive information on the Japanese regulator’s monetary policy. In April 2023, Kuroda is set to leave Bank of Japan. In theory, monetary policy can either persist until that time, or even soften further. Any statements about easing could weaken the yen. In addition, the Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI indicator will be released on June 23. The outlook is negative. Inflation for June in Tokyo will be published on June 25th. While deflation is expected to recover in annual terms to -0.6% from -0.4% in May. Recall that in May, the decline in consumer prices in Japan as a whole unexpectedly slowed down. Deflation in annual terms amounted to -0.1%, while the forecast was -0.7%. This slightly weakened the Japanese currency. If Tokyo CPI is higher than the forecast, it could have an additional negative impact on the yen. As a reminder, the BoJ rate is -0.1%. Accordingly, positive statements by the head of the Bank of Japan and strong Japanese economic indicators can strengthen the yen and move USDJPY towards the lower border of a wide neutral range.