Technical Templates 2

If you can calibrate anything positive from observing the direct relationship between Gold & your favored pairs, then get to it

The initial realisation was that all these months I could have been missing the big picture by just focusing on one pair given that it seems that some pairs actually seem to partially respect the S/R zones of the other pair because they’re so intune (GBPUSD and EURUSD particularly) but its incredibly hard to pick out what’s responsible for moving what given that movement from either is reflected within a split second, based on marketmaker feeds anyway. Might put that plan on the backburner for a while lol.

We’re still in “hit & run” mode Shaun…If you�re stressing over a few pips discrepancy on a s&r line tag, then you�re looking at this gig through the wrong viewfinder.

I am also finding that trades are hard to come by right now, I have only had one open trade this week on the EU

Desperate time call for desperate measures but I think I’ve extended that to stupid/foolish lol, been way too tempted to rejoin the 10-15 pip-wide channel ‘scalpers’ out there. With a R/R ratio of something like 1:10 there’s no wonder why I’ve become a statistic lol (and no wonder the statistic is so high)

These 15 min or even 1 min charts really help illustrate the point of drilling into lower timeframes which seems to be mentioned alot on this thread. For some reason it being a taboo area to be picking candlesticks or other indicators caused me to overlook using them all together. Guess this is one of those things where the overall concept can be missed with too much rote learning :o

We continually prompt & highlight them in our graphic examples merely to reinforce the point that it�s not particularly the [I]“timeframe”[/I] that matters, more about [B]where[/B] & [B]why[/B] price is reacting at a specific level or zone.

If you�ve identified a potential supply-demand (buy-sell pressure) step via a Daily, 4 hour, or 1 hour chart reference grid, then it�ll be there all bright & shiny & waiting for you on a 5 or a 1min reference when it finally arrives, will it not?

All you got to do once you�ve highlighted the potential hitting zone is prepare your game plan according to the current market pulse.
Decide which set-up/trigger combo you�re intending to employ & calibrate your risk to value odds.
If it stacks up then you�re good to go.

Just because you�ve identified your hot zone via a 4 hour chart read doesn�t mean you got to dance to the 4 hour beat.

Folks get unnecessarily lathered up about trading this timeframe or that timeframe, & ignoring price reads on anything lower than an hourly or daily grid blah blah.
It�s really irrelevant to be honest.

Price is going to react where it�s going to react � period!
The market doesn�t recognize or register which timeframe grid it�s being punted on. Only the individual trader wraps that obstacle around the concept.

As long as you�re aware of your identified upside & downside markers & you�re operating an effective vehicle for the current market behavior/conditions, then trade from whatever timeframe grid suits your style & temperament.

Here’s an example of that in action from yesterdays/todays price activity:

Price drifted in early Tokyo trade back to the identified (potential) reaction zone highlighted on yesterdays chart.

Short-term risk acceptance is still flavor of the week thus far & technically, price is registering another higher low at this level.
One of my colleagues alerted clients to the potential shift up into afternoon Tokyo/early morning London trade as price buffered our zone, but given we got 1st sniff of UK 2nd quarter GDP breaking at 9.30am BST, also cautioned of over enthusiastic participation.

Andre,
I am glad to hear that your zones are still picked from the higher time frames, at least I was not completely off base.

This statement really hits home for me. Honestly, I think the back and forth discussion, in real time, is very important in all aspects of life and really miss this in my trading. I look forward to this type of interaction in the future when I am trading, as a profession, with a group of people in some type of floor environment.

Oh you are not alone, and is probably the reason I found only one trade this week. I was sick of losing my money, even after realizing, being told by Andre in the thread, and telling others that I could not trade 4h sized trades right now. They are just so tempting because when the market is working, they tend to work well and add nice gains…Damn gnomes in my head.

So much for locking the doors & hitting the bar.
5 minutes sooner & I�d have successfully side stepped JimmyMac! :cool:

Once you engage him in light conversation it quickly morphs into a chat-a-thon.

May as well share the geography of a couple pairs on his watch-list while I�m sat here having my eardrums rattled.

If you already got these levels blipping on your radar, then cool. If not, then it might be worth keeping an eye on how they react to early week momentum, equity & commodity flows as they tackle these previous buy-sell pressure zones.

Although players will have encashed (booked profits) decent chunks of their bets into the weekend, trailing stops on remaining size (especially on $CAD) will be exposed on uplift through the obvious swings, visible via the sub hourly steps.


It�s that same combination that inspired the trade(s) on the AUDUSD pair that I hauled up last week courtesy of Jimmy�s observations.

I already explained in post #422 that Art (one of the guys here) had a pop at it off 8230 & subsequently scratched it next day as it ran out of (initial) steam on the lack of follow through.

From a technical perspective, Jimmy�s supply-demand zone added juice to the overall theme of the price activity. However, Art added more juice to the pot by way of the fundamental & bias drivers surrounding this area on the technical map.
Over the previous w/end & into early week activity RBA�s Stevens was all over the wires jawboning & talking up a storm re; Australia�s apparent ability to absorb & manage the worst of the credit crisis adversely affecting the other major economies. His bullish outlook for Oz forward growth prospects & tempered credit fears offered a sharp lift to the $AUD.

Will the positive flows continue?
Who gives a sh*t.
All we�re (traders) concerned with is how fast & how aggressively we can milk the situation & grab our piece of the action before the next event theme/flavor hits the wires & wiggles its ass.

It�s not always exclusively about the technicals.
Sure, they offer a visual heads up to what�s playing out on the map, but it�s a direct result & representation of traders reaction & interpretation of the present flavor-of-the-day (event driver) working its way through the pipes.

Although price slipped back to a visible & confirmed support zone during Wednesday�s action, the primary theme & flavor of the week hadn�t dissipated. Traders were looking for a spark to run it back up to, & clear of, the years highs.

In these sloppy range play conditions it doesn�t usually take much to kick these instruments into gear. If you got your framework template mapped out, then you�re primed to react as & when the conditions dictate - & that applies to each-way directional bias.

That�s what prompted him to leg back in through 8190 (note the higher high-higher low confirmer stepping away from a s&r zone on the hourly reference?). He was simply using the positive event drivers + demand activity & matching them up with a simple, common sense technical play that anyone could identify with.

What I�m trying to say is, these s&r markers are simply one piece of our jigsaw. They might be the only part of yours, & if so then cool. As long as they keep you afloat & in the green, that�s all that really matters.

We choose to navigate the map using the common technical observations as a base or core foundation. We don�t utilize them as an exclusive tool.
They�re in place to offer us choices & options along the route.

Using all the available resources at our disposal ensures we maximize & squeeze every drop of juice possible out of each trade opportunity.
We seek maximum value-to-risk odds from every trigger & if it fails to trot, or our timing�s out of whack then we get out, re-assess & repeat the process ahead of the next opportunity.

But thats just us � you might have alternative choices & reasons for executing where & when you choose to, & that�s fine. Just as long as you stick to a pattern that works for you & you�re confident & comfortable executing in conditions you�re familiar with!

Here�s a some recent examples from week comm July 18 that the guys snagged & tagged for clients as they set-up into the days activity.

Notice the similarities of the technical framework consistently relayed on here?
Nothing different, nothing omitted or tweaked to offer us an extra edge out there.
Its all familiar, basic technical work that anyone can adopt & use in tandem with their own preferred accessories.
The only extra input is chewing the fat & swapping chatter/info with our network/contact base on & around key zones or event risk drivers. But, to be honest it rarely affects or influences our initial trade decisions. .

We simply seek out fair value, ensure we�ve covered our bases, leg in & let the reins loose towards our next identified level of potential reaction.
If we got our bias or timing wrong, our stops will take us out.
If it stalls out ahead of expected destination, we�ll get unseated via our trailing mechanisms
If it trots to the desired level, we�ll weigh up the current picture, taking into consideration the appropriate variables (distance travelled/current price influences/upcoming event risk, time of day, & initial aims of the trade)

If it trots 50 pips, so be it�.if it trots 1050 pips, so be it.
The market pulse will beat as fast or as slow as it wants � our job is to try lock step in tandem with it�s flow�.sometimes we�ll milk it for all it�s worth, sometimes it�ll bite us on the ass.
It�s all a game of perceived value & odds.

Stack them as much in your favor, as often as possible & manage the journey efficiently according to your intended aims & expectations.
The market will inform you quick enough whether you got it right or wrong.



Same research
Same analysis
Same simple, straightforward repetative levels/zones/are’a of potential activity.

Get your framework set up, get your bias & drivers on the radar, wait for your familiar triggers & allow the market to go about it’s business!



Hi Andre,

These last posts you’ve made have done a better job of explaining how your team works than pretty much all previous posts put together!

As always - Great of you to share

Hello Andre! Thanks for the great sequence of posts.

One of the things I realized reading them was that maybe my money management criteria needed to be more flexible and adjusted to different market conditions.
I have the habit of scaling out part of the trade and let the other part open as a runner, with the objective of capturing larger moves.

Well, there�s no sense in having a runner if the markets are in range mode!:o
Analasyng my performance this last month, I found out that I would have been a lot better off with an all in/all out approach.

Anyway… I liked that the currencies broke out a bit more these last few days. This morning I was able to get some value on both EJ, AJ when they retested last week�s high (a trick I learned from someone :p) and showed a bias change on the 15m chart, in favor of the “risk appetite” flow.

Great set of posts Andre! Thank you so much.

Obviously, you can’t be at the screens 24/5. Do you just concern yourself with the time you’re at the screens or do you guys hand off to a second crew who manage the trades from that point on?

usually yes. Depends what�s going on. Some of the guys only deal their own accounts. They�ll help out (& log into other accounts) if required, so if a position or two needs babysitting for whatever reason, they�ll take up the slack. We help each other out.
there�s usually someone around from Tokyo afternoon trade (04.00bst/23.00edt) all the way thru to the closing London prints (16.00-17.30bst).

makes sense to cover the clock times that bracket the majority of the activity, & that accounts for the 04.00-17.30bst bracket. London ticks up approx 50% of the order flow these days, so most of the intraday orders get dealt around that opportunity window.

how you doin eduw :slight_smile:

we�re still engaging on a positive risk/value basis whenever & wherever the opportunities set-up.
looks like they�ve been recommending short trips to the market recently whilst prices remain in range mode & in line with contracted daily ranges, which makes sense.

Art & Jim actually called a short earlier on the back of the BoE commentary that they ran their band of brothers thru as it played out.

there�s a zone of interest loud & clear on the Cable graph today that we typically highlight on our examples. [B]Care to take a punt at where he might have called it?[/B] :wink:

drill down into your 5 min graph for a clearer look (it occurred after the event risk).

i�ll have a ferret thru Art’s files & dig the charts out if I can find them.

Could it have been on the retest of yesterday�s low + RN, triggered via that little 5m IB? :rolleyes:

you�re not just a pretty face then!! :stuck_out_tongue:

worth a re-cap though huh?

the only markers we have on our technical maps are previous weekly high/low lines & previous day�s high/low lines.

we advocate sitting up & paying attention as price begins vibrating key s&r zones & round numbers/big figures.

where did they drop the price to after they unloaded their barrels?
A previously annotated buy/sell pressure zone. It then flirted with a typical reaction area (round number & previous day�s low level).

we got negative bias, failed upkick (off 6820) & a heavy tone into the late London/early NY action.

where�s the value & lower risk to be had?

players didn�t like the taste of that shovel load of extra quant cash very much did they, so they took a whack at it & unloaded their shells.

there�s a lot of stressed money up there at 1.6950, I guess it wasn�t too much of a surprise to expect those shells to get fired thru the barrels. Plus we�re sliding into the end of week prints ahead of the NFP circus.

and just for good measure, price has bounced & settled at their 2nd highlighted s&r zone.

common area’s of reaction, running with the flows & legging in at your preferred risk/value zone.
no surprises then huh?

Andre has not only managed to not burn the thread down, he’s actually done a wonderful job here

Agreed, I’d go as far as to say I’m another happy customer if this was a paid service lol

I can imagine one or two impatient & ill-disciplined souls have done their dough dodging around in all this hustle & bustle.

Haha I know I certainly have in the past, the funny/annoying thing is every time I’d feel pressured to jump into something ridiculous like a 1:20 R:R 5 min bounce trade and feel like a new man after recovering from the burn it’d only be a matter of time before I caved and lost patience i.e.waiting for a decent setup vs the pressure of being in the red or fear of missing an opportunity. Something of a vicious cycle, at least reading threads like these help keep me out of the deep end of the pool.

I have a feeling this might have been answered before but what would you guys consider a long term trade from the interbank level, as well as a retail broker trade? And how do you deal with all the news releases in between (loose/trailing stops?)? It just seems a little contradictory that (from my experience/googling anyway) news releases are something of a no-go zone while it’s almost impossible to enter an interday trade without running into some sort of announcement.

Then again by the time the news came around you’d (ideally) already be in profit so it probably doesn’t matter that much…

Hello UK crew:
Good to see some familiar faces from a bit back. I spotted that you all are posting soley here now. Been lurking in the bushes. Hope all is well!

Got a fairly “simple” question regarding entries and something I have grown to understand as (IMHO) the ture Irony of Trading… and it has to do with entries.

Goes something like this: When you are new to the game and have a small account, you must be damn near perfect, on your entries in order to hope to give the trade a chance to run (this after all of the understandings of S/R and price action) after you have a survived that, and your account size grows, you could be off a few ticks/pips and have the ability to ride the drawdown and survive it. As well as the ability to survive- whipsaws, fading of the breakout etc.

So I’d like to hear from you folks- your opinion. To set a good Risk/Reward ratio, it is advisable to enter as close to support as you can and have a reasonable amount of S/L to protect on a long, and vice versa on a short at Resistance. Is their a way to accurately gauge the probablilty that either the Support or Resistance will hold or fold? We can all see a large spike down with it ending upward on the bar, but how long do we wait to decide (ahh yes it will indeed rise) or will come back to retest and possibly stop us out.

Aaron

[I]So I’d like to hear from you folks- your opinion. To set a good Risk/Reward ratio, it is advisable to enter as close to support as you can and have a reasonable amount of S/L to protect on a long, and vice versa on a short at Resistance.[/I]

Hello Aaron :slight_smile:

No, not really.

I don�t know about you, but support & resistance zones/buy-sell pressure zones, call them what you will, are nothing more than guides or potential contact area�s.

Sometimes the price action (influenced by whatever is driving it at the time) will obey the area perfectly & offer up a clear, identifiable set-up or trigger from which to engage, & other times it will dance & flop around the area for hours, spiking & unseating positions, awaiting clear direction and/or sufficient participation to gun it into gear.

I will say that in the majority of cases we prefer to engage on & around our preferred (& much touted on here) levels & zones because they�ve proven to offer us very decent risk & value opportunities at those levels/zones at certain times of the trading day.

[I]Is their a way to accurately gauge the probablilty that either the Support or Resistance will hold or fold?[/I]

Not in my experience, no.
For me/us it all revolves around what is influencing the price action as it vibrates & hustles one of our identified levels. That, + the manner in which price behaves & interacts with the level, usually dictates whether we�ll take it on or not.

And of course, when we do engage & it fails to do what we expect it to, we don�t hang around waiting for it to prove us right�…we fold & get the hell out. Our planning is based on the current conditions & influences. It�s either going to step up & return the $$�s or the trade will get canned.

[I]We can all see a large spike down with it ending upward on the bar, but how long do we wait to decide (ahh yes it will indeed rise) or will come back to retest and possibly stop us out.[/I]

[B]That will usually depend on some or all of the following:[/B]
How you set your trades up according to the level
Current conditions (range/trend)
Overall behavior of the price action
Time of day
Timeframe
Present price bias/influences
Characteristics of the pair you�re trading
Expectations & aims of the individual trade intent.

Fair enough, that sounds very logical. Thanks

Yes indeed, thank you. And thus at this level- this is where you are waiting to see your trigger bar/bars to take the trade then- makes perfect sense.

Ok, I’ll tell you my recent dilemma, all of this is advice I have studied from you folks in the past and had much success in implementing. Lately, I have been getting hammered on whipsaws and fading of the break that have taken place. Long term I’m on the correct side of the flow- but the small pullbacks or fades that come in have been taking a beating on my stops and turning a great set up into sh*t soup.

I figure it has to be my entries, but I’m trying to grasp exactly how to strengthen my entries in order to give the trade a fair shot of banking money. Not sure if it is a psychological thing or what- but my execution as of the last few months has been horrible, and am working to try and correct it before getting into too much trouble.
Aaron

This has certainly been the time to pack your towels & lotion up & hit the beach!

A few of us here, including Jos & myself, have been away on vacations since early June Aaron & there�s a good reason for that�

Historically, volumes are very poor this time of the year & that often has a knock-on effect to (usually solid) technical & fair value levels. Don�t forget we�re also continuing to experience fall-out from the recent credit fiasco. That�s a pretty potent mix & it�s affecting the psychology & structure of the funding tranches right across the marketplace.

Unless folks have adjusted their game plays, especially those operating a more discretionary type model(s) to allow for this behavior change, then they might experience & encounter even tougher trading conditions than normal around this time of the year.

Again, it�s the main reason the guys here have swapped to a more flexible, aggressive & shorter term view of the market across the traditionally more active pairs.

It�s times like this where the trade selection becomes even more important than normal, and trade management takes on a more “active” role.