I would imagine it’s these types of conditions that tempt the less experienced to begin chopping their strategies & systems around in search of consistent profits, or at least attempting to maintain consistently small losses.
I know it’s one of the traps I’ve fallen into in the past. Do you maintain an orderly & even keel when assessing potential trades regardless of the conditions Jocelyn, or do you also adjust your analysis to reflect the ever changing conditions?
The only thing that alters when conditions expand or contract Kevan is the way you operate when you place your bets.
You’re still going to be able to identify the significant micro & macro levels in much the same way.
It’s the same process as usual. You don’t need to change your structure just because the conditions change.
Levels & zones will retain their attraction & appetite no matter what.
Just dial out on your preferred macro view & mark your areas up in the normal way. Identify the zones & wait for the price to give you a reason to lay your bets.
Lower lows & highs for continued downside momentum – reverse for upside momentum.
If price fails to make a fresh low (or high) out of one of these areas, you got your first clue as to how much influence the bids or offers are exerting.
If that’s the case then they’ll usually be a good reason why that’s happening.
The current drivers & influences will dictate how & why the levels are being played.
That’s when your micro template comes into play.
Your 1-2-3 or a pullback on a momentum kick will show up if sufficient volume exists to pitch the price action into your hitting zone.
I don’t think you need me to repeat the guides or prompts that regularly assist when making a decision to place an intraday bet.
They’re not complex, they just need to fit your preferred criteria to take action.
You’ll know your range numbers before engaging, so you can mark those out.
You got peak-trough ledges to run your stops behind to offer traction for your bet & as long as you haven’t over extended your risk at entry, you’re good to go.
That’s been my plan of action for the last month or so.
Watching for my favorite setups, and taking what I can get when it gives it.
I’m, not above trading off the minute chart;) Nimbleness is a necessity
when doing so.
Hello Tess, Jocelyn & everyone.
Hope you’re all well & prospering on the back of all the Japanese excitement.
Have you benefited from the big Yen knock out this week at all?
It all happened during the Japanese trading hours, so I didn’t catch any of the main reaction unfortunately.
I’m continuing to enjoy the readjusted set ups very much. Although it’s only 6 weeks since I started the fresh approach, it’s far tighter & controlled than before & I’m really pleased with the progress so far.
Hi Kevan,
No not here. I haven’t traded it this week, Tess hasn’t either.
A couple had a nibble at eur/jpy this morning as London put its boots on, but I think that was as much a Euro reason than anything else, given they’re bullish that instrument this week.
The Yen story will still offer opportunities along the way. It’ll get due consideration as the appropriate set ups appear on the radar. There’s no hurry.
It’s nice to see they’re proving compatible with your objectives.
If you get any niggles or you’re unsure about anything then don’t hesitate to shout.
They haven’t really lost interest. Speculators have backed off from Dollar/Yen & transferred interest to the crosses. That will impact the volatility of the corresponding pairs in the short term.
They’ve had their cards marked for now & another reason for the tight ranges on Dollar/Yen at the moment will be exporters looking to get a foothold higher up here to hedge their exposure into fiscal half year end (Sept 30).
The intervention upset their apple cart too, so there’s bound to be a period of readjustment whilst everyone takes stock of recent events & attempts to position themselves again.
If you’re looking to trade Yen at the moment then keep an eye on how Dollar/Yen is being traded.
If it’s snoozing then look to the crosses to see how much volatility is being generated via that route. Vice versa when Dollar/Yen wakes from it’s slumber.
Obviously, the offsets will be influenced by their own agenda’s, but you’ll undoubtedly receive better bang for your buck looking to catch a ride on Yen crosses for the time being.
Seems like that may have been the intention in this case.
The question becomes, how deep are their pockets?
Yes I’ve heard of them. But I don’t have any comment to make about Amplify Trading or any other training shop at all Matt. 
Oh yes, their intention is to put doubts into their minds so they’re not quite sure exactly when or where the beast will decide to swish his tail again.
But if history is anything to go by we all know how it’s going to end up, regardless of how many column inches the talking heads can generate from it.
It’s not really for me to say Matt.
We all have our own views & opinions of what represents value in relation to potential benefit.
Each person has to decide what their cut-off point is.
If you’re intent on triggering an entry in accordance with a solid technical level or one of your favored set ups & you need to open out your risk (stop loss) to check the forward potential of a move, you always have the option to readjust your trade size to accommodate that scenario.
You can always trail your position later & reduce your initial exposure (+ lock in profit) if the trade plays out positive.
If you’re using the hourly as your peak-trough guide, would the swing low @ 1.5440-50 register on your radar? If not, why?
Instead of an alternative micro directional view, how about a bail out option if price fails to adhere to your original reasoning for taking a view in the first place.
That way, you might alleviate some of the pressure of having to switch sides on the spin of a dime & allow yourself more time to assess the markets intent & fickle intraday influences etc?
Is it a common problem because your objectives are vague?
What other information do you usually observe & refer to before considering a trade?
If you’ve set a minimum requirement for entry & you’re happy to run with it, then if it fails to register in accordance with your rules that’s a no trade.
It either pulls back & offers you a seat or it doesn’t. If it flies to the moon off the bat, then you’re on the sidelines.
No headache.
When trading off levels & zones, I have no preference, nor do I pay any attention to individual bar formations.
But that’s me. You might have different views & opinions based on your research & testing criteria.
First off, my thanks to Jocelyn, Tess and colleagues who’ve contibuted to this great thread. I hope what you’ve all given out here so freely & generously comes back to y’all many times over.
My question relates to a tricky issue I have with triggers. Say for example you go long on the upside breakout of the high of an 15 min inside bar or the high of point 2 of a 123 pattern & you then place your sell stop below a nearby support zone. - A few bars later the buy signal is negated by a move down that takes out the low the pattern but not the stop loss. Is it best to ignore the failure of the signal at this point & just wait to see if the original sell stop will be hit or bail out and wait in the bushes for the next buy set-up to appear? My testing on this was pretty inclusive so I’m wondering how you guys handle it.
Hi pblack,
I’m sure Tess or one of the others will offer their input, but I’m actually now trading the 1-2-3 as one of 2 triggers on my shorter range strategy & have been keeping detailed records via spreadsheet since August 1 of this + the other trigger.
If you check back on my first posts on this thread you’ll see the history behind my association with this set up. Since finding this forum & thread, I’ve totally altered the way I approach trading this trigger.
Currently most of the triggers are showing up as a continuation set up in tandem with a dominant bias from the 1 hour chart timeframe, triggering off the 5 or 15 minute chart.
Since Aug 1 I’ve only traded 7 1-2-3’s, resulting in 1 loss.
That total represents 38% of the 2 set ups across 5 main pairs.
I’ve become really picky about how & where I trade them since reading the posts of these guys. Before I readjusted & tightened up my outlook I was trading them all over the chart with no real filter or confirmatory information.
It’s a fantastic set up, but like any other technical signal the success rate will improve greatly dependant on the location & influence of the price action.
Hello pblack,
Thank you for your comments & glad you’re enjoying the material 
Part of my reply, or rather one of my questions, has already been touched on by Kevan.
Where (location wise) are the majority of the triggers being traded that result in the set up fading away or temporarily running out of steam?
Is there an obvious pattern you’re aware of?
Are you recording the results of the triggers in order to review & determine whether a certain event or technical scenario offers a significantly higher success rate than others?
Are the more obvious triggers the result of one or more confluence events at entry for instance? or are you finding that the set-up is less successful when triggered as a stand alone entry?
What type of strategy or model are you trading?
It’s difficult to offer a view without a little background info surrounding the accompanying reasons for considering the trade(s).
Obviously some of them will fail as a natural consequence of lack of follow through by the market, which impacts all set ups at times no matter where they’re traded.
Are they pair specific, or do you trade across a variety of currency pairs?
By all means check the state of play on your big timeframes, but try starting from your primary or ‘home’ timeframe first.
Dial out as far as it will go & just run the rule over the upper & lower levels first. See if anything stands out like a sore thumb.
Sometimes the obvious is staring right back at you!
There’s usually a good reason levels react the way they do.
Yes that’s what I meant.
I’m not for one minute suggesting that you or anyone else don’t possess the capability or skills to adopt a stop & reverse policy. But when you’re trying to investigate, build & operate a strategy or model that you haven’t yet moulded to your complete satisfaction, the objective should really be to become comfortable & familiar with the style, function & nature of your surroundings.
You’ll relieve a lot of pressure on yourself if you concentrate on getting one set of criteria & background analysis comfortable first, before attempting to load too much on your plate at the outset.
Try it. Only you will know how you feel & if it works ok.
Yeah, that’s the kind of thing.
They don’t have to be complex or too deep. They should form a clear & definite framework for your intent.
If you’re mentally & structurally (your plan options are clearly laid out) prepared when you hit the buy or sell button then you’re less likely to get blindsided or spooked by the market, especially when things don’t initially go to plan.
All possible eventualities should be covered & more importantly so that you won’t hesitate or second guess yourself when events unfold, such as a bail-out option if the trade no longer holds water.
Not at all.
I’ve always maintained folks should allow themselves to be drawn to that which feels right. Never ignore your gut instincts.
Always investigate, explore & determine for yourself that a style, a specific timeframe or combination thereof, a particular market behavior etc is the right choice for you.
Let circumstances dictate whether it’s viable or not.
[B]No-one knows you better than you![/B]
By all means peruse & investigate other folks advice & recommendations. Maybe add something into the mix that looks or feels right & test it out to see if it benefits your strategy or outlook.
Perhaps reanalyze one or two of your own options - but never abandon your basic foundation until it proves unworkable for the conditions you’re trading under.
Gauging relative strength is a good habit to adopt.
You can utilize it across the varied timeframe styles, it won’t do you any harm that’s for sure.
You could try keeping tabs on end of day summaries via some of the wrap-up commentaries on here or via Bloomberg & Reuters.
You’ll begin to build up a regular backgdrop if you like of what the market is focusing on & being influenced by.
It’s not the key to the sweet factory by any means, but it helps to build structure & offers an albeit small window into the engine room of the market.
Taking small bite sized chunks out of the “boring bits” of market analysis won’t impact on your time allocations, particularly if this endeavor is a part-time activity.
Again, it’s open for you to adopt or bin according to your tastes & attitude.
Hi Matt,
It’s the momentum pullback trigger that a couple of them repeated on here back in July. Sean & one of the others expanded on both the set ups from around post number 260 onwards.
I haven’t been setting or defining a target with this readjusted strategy to be honest.
I’m tracking my progress by focusing on percentage returns versus percentage staked.
I bet a maximum of 1% of account balance per trade. My trading size is determined by how large or small my stop loss is, & that will vary according to the technical positioning of the entry, the management & potential of the move.
I’ve only been tracking & recording my live results of this strategy readjustment since August 1st so I’ll require at least another full trading quarter to get a better idea of the performance.
Hi Kevan thanks for your input. I am aware from your prior posts that the 1-2-3 pattern is one of your primary setups & I agree with you that it is indeed a great setup. The market logic behind the pattern is compelling if you consider that all trend changes on the higher timeframes (240, 60 min etc.,) first appear in the micro timeframes as 1-2-3 patterns in that new direction - so it sure gives you a heads-up when market conditions change. Combine that with this thread’s emphasis on proper trade location + sound trade & money management & you’ve got a pretty solid combination.
Since you’re obviously happy with your setups Kevan I don’t want to mess with your head - but if you do want to add a refinement or two to the pattern there’s some pretty decent free material available available at trading-naked .com. Look for the “Law of Charts” & “the Traders Trick Entry” PDF’s by Joe Ross. He’s a veteran commodity trader who’s been trading the 1-2-3 pattern since about the time of the Pharaohs. I myself use the traders trick entry on the higher micro timeframes (such as the 15 mins) when market volatility is such that my risk tolerance parameters don’t allow entry using the conventional entry method. There’s also another 1-2-3 PDF on the site written by Mark Crisp that I’ve just noticed but haven’t read yet so I can’t comment on it.
Hi Tess, thanks for your reply. The template I use is pretty much what’s on display here with minor modifications.- and I do keep a spreadsheet to track much of what you mentioned. But one of your questions made me do a little extra thinking.
“Are the more obvious triggers the result of one or more confluence events at entry for instance? or are you finding that the set-up is less successful when triggered as a stand alone entry?”
You made me think about those futures guys you mentioned in a previous post who use the 15/1 min combo for confirming signals. Is that the type of confluence that you’re alluding to?
Finally what I was trying to get at in my prior post is whether you leave your original stop loss in place on a trade, getting stopped out if the trade doesn’t work & only moving it if it does? Also do you ever use time stops?
I was referring more to set ups that appear on & around levels & zones of location significance such as those regularly mentioned on here pblack.
Location, price influence/driver, dominant bias etc are pretty powerful confluence or combination triggers.
If the stop is hit then it confirms either the timing of the trade was off or the current market bias is in conflict. Either way, it’s placed at a point where if it’s snapped then I’m wrong about the trade for whatever reason & need to reassess.
Not as a conscious part of any strategy play.
I think to a certain degree everyone at some point adopts time stops, whatever stance they take.
To be honest, it’s a rare event given the types of strategy plays typically referenced on here.
If trades are developing that kind of habit then I’d be getting my spanners & wrenches out to replace a part or two.
Thanks for the information pblack. I came across the Joe Ross forum & material through the normal browsing & researching route when I first got attracted to trading.
The Crisp information is basically a repeat of the regular 1-2-3 stuff with his interpretation of the traders trick entry included at the end. I haven’t ever looked at the trading-naked material in any great depth, so will put it on my ‘to peruse’ list.
Yes you’re right. It’s the only set up I trade on the 1 & 4 hour charts. There were a couple of crackers on the AUDUSD trend resumption during early summer.
Now that I’ve latched onto the concept of paying more attention to the set up on the micro timeframes on & around areas of significance, I should hopefully have a set up that fits all eventualities!
The occasions where it’s got me into trouble & caused frustration over the past couple of years is simply where I’ve tried to unsuccessfully incorporate it into a shorter timeframe strategy.
We live & learn.