thank you tess.
the prices come to that level of yours you have put in the shadey part of your chart yesterday night and it move backs away again. now it comes to be back ther again but it is being the day of the farm jobs in america so you have sayed before about this day being not nice for tradeing.
Woud this price moveing down since 16020 be the take profits becaus of this day being the importent farm jobs data day? i am thinking so.
Yes hawkmoon it will have a big influence on positioning.
Traders won’t want to be exposed with large open (short-range) bets leading into an important number like this.
They will be very aware of near term upside/downside reaction levels, such as the one on Cable as it vibrated this initial prior resistance (supply) zone at 1.5970-90 yesterday from early August.
It corresponds with a big figure (a strong psychologically influential level) & also marked the extreme journey of the pairs average days range.
Large hourly highlights the s&r zone
So, given we know that NFP is looming up on the radar & price is probing a critical support & resistance level that previously contained the bullish momentum, + the added knowledge that the average days range had been covered…it might prompt traders long from below to begin looking for an exit, or certainly a level in which to book profits.
We’ve mentioned constantly throughout the threads that it might pay dividends to begin looking for higher probability set ups & triggers forming on & around key levels, due to the repetitive psychology of market participants……and this 1-2-3 continuation/reversal set up has been recommended as a solid enough candidate.
The 1.60 figure is a very typical example of this type of regular scenario.
By dialling into one of your micro timeframe options you can get a clearer view of the price action as it gets worked around the level.
I suppose for some active bargain hunters, that level & corresponding price action set up represented a very decent value shorting opportunity.
5min highlighting the set up/trigger opp.
For those also covering eur/usd that pair vibrated another of it’s key levels from 1st quarter.
There won’t be much size from short-range specs hanging around this close to the market dancat. They will have folded on the trip back off 1.60.
Most of the trailing profits got snapped late last week when the market probed for stops underneath 1.5725 into the New York close.
The heavier activity will be layered underneath that level, which will be breakeven orders from Monday/Tuesday looking for a follow thru pop of this big figure (1.60) psych level.
If you’re looking to pickpocket a deal on the back of the release, wait at least 15 minutes to get a read on the order readjustment & see where the risk is being layed.
This 1.60 figure is a biggie, they’ll be some juicy stops being parked above there.
Hi Tess, question for you regarding the Bank Holiday’s in Tokyo, US, Canada today…the markets have been pretty subdued for most of the day so far - especially through the end Asia and beginning of the Europe sessions.
On a day like this, with all the holiday’s, do you switch off the screens? Or do you go about looking for set-ups/triggers at various levels as per usual?
Look forward to your thoughts
thanks
Ryan
It’s treated as long weekend Ryan.
Any open positions rolling over into an extended weekend get treated exactly the same as a normal one & regular business is resumed again after the bank holiday break.
Someone (me today) will run a quick 10 minute check on prices in the morning to ensure the financial world hasn’t imploded, but that’s about it until tomorrow.
Same as what’s on everyone else’s I guess Matt.
Risk appetite back in vogue with hot equities & commods + another round of U.S quantitative easing fears influencing negative dollar sentiment.
Knowing that the buck is likely to get slapped around a little this week you can look to your technical markers for a heads up to get long the pullbacks in the pairs that usually react positively to risk acceptance.
Part of the weekend technical prep would obviously include marking up the Dollar Index potential reaction levels.
The first level came into view yesterday & that would flip the mirror levels on your favorite watch pairs.
The Cable chart Tessa posted up last Thursday highlighting the lower pullback reaction zones offered up a leg back in on Dollar negative bias via this pair.
By repeating the same exercise across your favored pairs you would have flagged up a similar pullback zone opportunity on eurjpy, which is a popular barometer of risk in the currency market.
Using the current drivers & influencing factors in tandem with clear technical potential reaction levels offers up clearer & stronger decision making opportunities.
Nothing fancy or complicated. Just basic, straightforward analysis running with the flows.
First off, just wanted to say thank you for all of these great threads and valuable information. I have just been lurking since discovering them awhile ago but I figured I would throw in a reply to see how my own view is stacking up. I have only been applying the principles of these threads on the eur/usd to keep things simple for myself. Now that eur/usd seems to have gotten through the 1.4000-1.4025 zone, would the next possible upside zone be around the low of last December of 1.4200-ish?
Hi.
Yes it would. Followed by the years highs up at 1.4550-80
yes I have been paying more attention to the 123 since it was mentioned here. Looks useful to have in the tool box
It isn’t just a recent inclusion Tony. It was mentioned for the first time by Tess on this page back in summer of 2008 on their original thread. It’s also mentioned a couple more times on the first & second thread.
http://forums.babypips.com/free-forex-trading-systems/6632-alternative-technical-templates-54.html
When I first came across this forum & these Template threads earlier this year I remember reading on their original thread that the 123 was one of Tess’ favourite set ups. It struck a chord because it was the one I adopted when I first began trading in 2008.
If only I’d also found their material at the same time, not only would have I have accelerated my core trading structures & planning tenfold, but I would have side stepped all the angst & frustration of trading every 123 that appeared on my charts :o
How much difference is location & planning making to your trade decisions, particularly when triggering off the lower timeframes in regards to quantity & more importantly, the quality of the entries?
yes I was a little slow on the uptake. When I saw it mentioned here I went back through the ATT PDF and found it there. Guess i didnt get it at the time as my focus was elsewhere. Better late than never!
Without hesitation, for me anyway, I would say it’s the most important adjustment I’ve made to my structure since I started live trading 2 years ago.
The quantity has reduced noticeably, but that is a direct result of the quality of the preparation & accompanying analysis.
I also think that because I’ve clocked up that mixed bag of experience it’s helped me recognise, absorb & process the information that’s presented here far more efficiently than if I’d discovered it as a complete newcomer to trading.
Anyone with anything about them will realise that when you’ve read & continue to read so much crap across the different forums over a given period of time, the decent stuff stands out like a sore thumb.
I felt totally comfortable trading the set up, but I was quite naïve & unaware of how to successfully construct & integrate it into my trading plans. I wouldn’t have dared to have continued trading it on smaller timeframes if I hadn’t discovered the relationship link between location & influences that these guys constantly comment on.
That set up can be traded on any instrument & timeframe combination Matt.
If you’re going to trade it on stocks or any other vehicle, you’ll need to test & adapt it to fit your own personal objectives, which in turn will dictate the timeframe & frequency of your trade plans.
If the 1-2-3 or any other trigger set up fails to generate sufficient opportunities [U]according to the criteria you select[/U] for your entries then you’re going to have to investigate additional triggers and/or qualifying criteria to accommodate that requirement.
Jimmy & a couple other guys trade it across different instrument classes with no problems, but their minimum opportunity requirements objectives are very different to yours.
Here ya go Matt.
JohnnyKanoo did a great job on it!
Cheers!
http://forums.babypips.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=6404&d=1233923450
my pleasure matt.
Addit: Just seen I have been beaten to it. Johnny indeed did a fantastic job and it is a well worn part of my FX library
Alternative Technical Templates.zip (1.87 MB)
I would echo Kevans thoughts and observations. When I first came across Tess I had already become familiar with the IB and stochastic hook and a few other interesting approaches which I posted. ATT and its sister threads got me to home in on the high prob areas. In addition over a period of a year to 18 months I moved from the 15 minute timeframe to take action off the H4/H1 frames with the 15 being used where I am keen to get into something thats on the move. Tess warned me at the time that such a transition would be challenging and it was as it shook what I thought I instinctively understood about the market and made me feel like a noob all over again. Bottom line - moved from 2 to 3 (up to 15) trades per night to 2 - 3 per week
As with FX, they take whatever potentially lower risk/higher value opportunities present themselves based on their set ups & triggers at the time.
It’s no different on those instruments than it is on these.
Keying in off pre-identified areas that reflect the current dominant market drivers & influences remains the order of the day.
If they can’t get the right deal they’ll keep their powder dry until they can.
Similar behavioral disciplines to those advocated on here.
First & foremost as with all pre-trade prep you’ll need to take the accompanying conditions into consideration before finalizing your game plan. It would hinge on what’s driving or influencing the price action & the timeframe from which the entry was being initiated.
However, if it was a continuation set up, the like of which you’ve highlighted in your comment, & it was being pitched via a sub hourly timeframe then tucking the stop underneath point 3 would normally keep you alive.
Tucking it beneath point 1 would offer more slack for the level or zone to be tested for sufficient supply or demand before moving away, & keep you seated at the expense of the nervous or clueless money bailing prematurely.
That option tends to offer better value when trading the set up around big psych levels & via slightly longer timeframes.
That is of course assuming you’re executing your entry via a break of point 2.
There’s a slightly earlier entry available via the traders trick option.
If you’re not familiar with that, simply google traders trick entry & you should stumble across a pdf from trading-naked.com that will explain the finer details.
sean & tess.
Ther is present negitive feelings in pound verses the us doller for the begining of this weeks & I am takeing notices of what you say about the yestarday lows & high when looking to entry my trades.
I am takeing notice also to your day ranges averige moveing of the pairs. and the pound has moved to 60 percentege of the today range when it comes to the yesterday low. I know you say this is fine to trade from this.
Cuold you plese tell to me if my trade short on this pound entry is good at this level?
because I traded the pound as it went past the yesterday low at 15837 but maybe should have waited until it went back up and entryied then? my loss risk is seem to be ok at the above of the swing at 15875? you think?
My downward target to be the low of the last weeks at 15753 line.
thank you for adviseing of this trade.
i tryed to put a chart to this mesage but manage attachment box not seems to work for me. sorry.
