Don’t foreget to factor in the average range coverage though.
I realize the markets are being influenced in part by the catastrophic events in Japan, but it still pays to keep an eye on how far prices wander away from their normal range boundaries.
Cable has travelled nearly 50% more that the normal extremes, so you might want to take that on board when considering partial or full exits & re-entries etc.
From the viewpoint of trading the major European pairs, I must admit I’ve experienced smoother results this year so far playing eur/usd & usd/chf from the directional angle than I have gbp/usd.
The cable is being bracketed quite strongly inside this 5970 – 6280 range (especially the lower zone) & hasn’t really shown any inclination to step outside & make headway, whereas eur/usd & the swissy have at least offered cleaner opportunities to make some money off the pullbacks trading with the bias.
But then I suppose it hinges on risk attitude & trading objectives. Those two key components will dictate how & why you play it.
It was the first realistic lower high short opportunity that presented itself into the early European trading shift Matt. It’s no secret how much they like to trigger entries in sync with key levels & numbers, especially if they match up with peak-trough and/or any visible bias.
Risk aversion was on the agenda too as traders logged into a fresh week.
Looks like you got that pullback you were looking for this morning huh?
As long as these unemployment numbers don’t poop on the party you might get a little more mileage out of another short run.
I do agree with catcher however that Cable is probably not the greatest advert for smooth traction at the moment.
True, but don’t overlook previous session highs & lows either Matt.
You might not have noticed, but when price gets into a steady trend run quite often it will pullback to it’s immediate day high/low to check out the interest.
I keep a real close eye on those levels particularly if price violates the level but [U]fails to kick on[/U]. That type of activity can offer a very low risk/high value opportunity to leg back into a dominant bias move or add more bets to a core position.
Sure, that is definitely another viable option.
Stands to reason that in order for price to continue making fresh highs (or lows) in sync with a dominant bias, then it’s going to have to scale back above (or below) it’s most recent reaction levels.
The first of those levels has to be the previous days high or low & the next level of seniority will generally be the previous weeks rejection points.
Must be your lucky day Matt, it popped back up & handed you another swing of the bat.
You’ve bagged yourself a keen deal if you picked that short up 2nd time around, especially if they manage to drive it through this sturdy support floor down at last weeks low.
Bargain transaction of the week so far!
those coments have again held true this week and continu to confirm the importence of tracking thes levals.
On both the euro-doller and the pound-doller the previus s&r & day-week high & low levals have played important role in either entery’s or exits this week.
Absolutely they have.
No surprises there then.
3850 is back in vogue again this week shouldering the price action for dip buyers.
And that 5970-6000 zone is proving a very solid floor. That area is stretching back over a 10 week period & still clearly contains superior bid activity on tests.
Shorting into it has paid the better dividend this week evidenced by the consecutive lower daily closes as the week progresses, but a NY close that snaps that bearish run will tip the odds back towards buying rallies again, particularly if the data/influences back it up.
The higher frequency traders will already have made their money this week shorting into the Cable pullbacks & the bonus deal will be collected from getting long eur/usd on the dip to this weeks (& the focus s&r zone) lows.
Or side with something exhibiting slightly more upward/downward bias momentum 
At the end of the day Matt you’re going to trade whatever feels right for you.
If you can make any kind of sense out of that Cable chart running into end of week & it delivers a low risk/high potential return then that’s really all that counts.
Personally I feel the lower risk play took place earlier in the week on that pair, but that’s just my view.
Of the 2 major european pairs, eur/usd is displaying the far cleaner & less cluttered set up potential.
But again that’s just my/our view based on the framework & structure presented on this thread.
Profit is profit. As long as you can justify the risk & it ticks all the necessary boxes, then I guess you’re sorted.
to deside between the two is to look for the price action on the euro-pound also.
this i think will help as filtar for trades at levals that interest you. i have read in first thred how tess & collegues say this can help to make better desicsons.
As you say hawkmoon, they have advised more than once that one of the smartest inclusions in your analysis when considering the possibilities of a potential trade is strength v/s weakness.
You don’t really need to go too deep with your confirmation, just enough to satisfy yourself that what you’re looking at makes sense.
eur/gbp continues to trade with a bullish bias & has been a buy on dips since this time last month off .8450. Therefore if I’m looking for a softer ride to engage the Dollar it would pay to glance at that pair in order to ascertain whether one side was offering any type of possible advantage over the other.
Dollar Index was on the skids this week, especially on the approach to & reaction at 76.80.
Comparing the two charts (eur/usd versus gbp/usd) on my preferred default timeframe, I can quickly discover that the former was exhibiting far cleaner technical behavior than the latter, & therefore all that remained was to sit wait for a low risk/high probability setup/trigger opportunity to present itself.
If these guys go all out to make life as easy as possible for themselves by swimming with the tide in as calm waters as possible, then that’s good enough for me.
My own experience tells me that attempting to trade chop is frustrating & inefficient.
Don’t you think there’s just a bit too much skittishness & fog playing out on that currency just now to skew & distort the risk v/s value Matt?
None of the guys have it on their radars at the moment. It’s simply too much like hard work when there are other currency pairs exhibiting clearer set up & value opportunities.
If you’ve been, or are currently seeking out obvious peak-trough bias opportunities it might make more sense to put say EUR/USD or EUR/GBP or perhaps EUR/CAD on your watch list?
I think you’ll have an easier life & establish far more acceptable risk & value options legging in & out of those pairs using that criteria - but that’s just my take on it.
There are two obvious locations coming up inside last weeks high-low barriers, one of which you’ve identified.
They’ll no doubt be trailing stops & bids mixed in at those swing zones.
Apparently Portuguese & Irish woes are sliding price through these first bunch of trailing stop losses today & the Dollar Index back above 75.80 isn’t helping matters.
If you get one of your reliable trigger set ups around or above one of these swing levels & you can calibrate your risk, then off you go.
they had good bids waiting at the 4060 leval this morning carll.
i was tradeing from the 15 minut chart and messed up my entery a litle bit i fear, not entering until the 4090 leval.
i notice only afterwards on the 5 minut your stocostic hook entery at a nicer lower entery leval.
i usualy look to that chart also when prices is at thes important levals, i will be litle disapointed for missing that beter entery.
I don’t see too much wrong with your entry hawkmoon.
You agreed with yesterdays identified reaction zones & prepped it as a viable potential long re-entry bet.
How & where you enter will be directly influenced by your attitude to risk, your specific trading style when executing in that type of scenario, & your trade objectives.
Everone will trade a level differently & you at least noticed an alternative entry & risk slot, which should be cause for celebration not disappointment!
No-one is perfect & I’m pretty sure the next opportunity won’t slip through your fingers 
It’s no secret these peak-trough zones harbour bunches of each-way stops, which explains the frequent mini battles that take place on the approach to & exit from a busy level.
In this instance that area houses yesterdays low & the low that printed in Tokyo (shaded highlight) prior to the european opening ticks.
As I say, depending on your risk attitude & trading style you could either climb on around the indicated area which you referred to, obtaining a bargain basement risk (stop) ticket, or wait see how the price action reacts on the approach to yesterdays closing level & Tokyo high (1.41-4115 zone).
You chose to engage a little further up, but as long as you’re happy that you could establish acceptable risk in relation to upside potential, then you got a good deal.
There’s certainly plenty room left in the days range & if it runs out of gas up here beyond the Tokyo high you got ample time to scratch for a b/e trade & reassess.
You’re not going get into too much trouble if most of your trade executions cover those types of bases!
And there you have it, a nice lift this afternoon on the back of some good (portuguese) news for a change with some decent demand into the London fix takes it up to bag the days range.
Morning longs content to use this zone to book (some) profits into the close.
and ther was me worrying about a mis calc entery.
thanks to you carll for your posts today. 
hello to you matt.
that 123 is very nice trigger to entery on thes lower charts at what they call signifacent levals. i am recordeng results for this trigger and it is high sucess rate when traded with bias at pulback from key leval.
i am also noting the hook entery of carll’s also at importent levals and it also is high sucess returns with very nice risk.
The zone and leval + tradeing with bias for thes entery’s is very important in the posative returns i am finding.
Also the 70-100% range reached from entery when considereng an exit or booking some profits is recordeng high sucess return also.
it has taken for me a litle while to understand fully this concepts, but it is very clever way to view the markets movemants.
only litle informaton necessery to plot on the chart and follow, but this small informaton is very powerful.
1.4150 i am now judging for support here, and then 1.4120 area to hold up this move for more bull movemant.
1.4150 is so far holding its line this morning. very small range with no efort in up or down moves.
i took earlier entery at 160 but many bars later stil no movemant so i cash back out.
it has been nice week so am happy. the euro is faceing resistance on the crosses today and this might be slowing the pair down today carll.
it make another hook entery in early Tokyo sesion and again on pulback of europaen sesion at this support 4150 leval. quiet friday price actoin i think.