No, not at all.
I personally don’t rate it as a high probability long bet at the present time because of the reasons mentioned in my reply to Steve. But that’s just my view.
You (& I) have to appreciate there are others who will view this typical area as a low risk/high probability bet for any number of reasons. One might be because the zone, having being rejected in February, then acted as support during early March & is currently attracting support this week in the context of a mid-term bullish bias.
When prices encounter zones such as this & the one above at c1.2725-35 they will butt up against 2 way action in the way of limit orders, trailing profit stop, & dependant on the level from which it’s engaging, bids & offers.
Each camp will determine it as either a level to cash out (partially or fully) or a level to engage against the flow. Some traders will be cashing out short bets down here to check for continuation potential & they will be mixed in with fresh bids from those checking out the strength of another pop back up to attack the recent highs.
There will be sell stops building underneath 2600 to check out the potential to hit 1.2400, the next visible zone of prior activity that Steve highlighted on his chart. And those conflicting orders will take time to settle out & pick up the slack.
You have a structure that is offering you a disciplined view of the price action.
When that structure comes into play & offers you a green light to engage, then as long as you can compute acceptable risk & can clearly identify a level or levels to aim for that will offer you options if it manages to get there, then you’re ok to lay your bet.
The fact it disagrees with my view or anyone else’s view is irrelevant.
It all comes down to risk attitude, aims & objectives, & everyone’s is different.
You’re using a mechanical structure alongside a discretionary framework to enhance your probability odds & if you can comfortably slot those two elements together & generate a positive expectancy, then good for you.
It’s been said on here many times, but there’s no right or wrong.
Only what’s right for you.
That was a good bet by the way!