See this is what they’re saying about leveling up to what the pro traders do. They said that institutional traders do not rely on TA. They study what’s going on in terms of fundamentals and sentiment that’s why they’re forcing me to do the same.
Know what you’re saying and I’m sure we at least 50% agree with each other. FA is great for selecting good targets to buy and sell but bad at selecting the optimum time to do so.
So a compromise approach that I use in forex, rather than learn FA and watch the news, is to check the bullishness or bearishness of the whole basket of currency pairs with the same base currency and see if there is a clear consensus so I can select the right target. So, using my bullishness/bearishness criteria, I see that all 7 of the 7 pairs in which AUD is the base currency against the other major currencies are bearish. Right now, all 6 major currency pairs based on CAD are bullish. So, its simple to conclude that a great target for a short would be AUD/CAD - take a look at the chart and see if I’m right.
The problem with relying on TA is that all TA is, is a graphic representation made from trader sentiment. As trader sentiment builds we call in momentum and then we have a trend which can be measured by its slope.
That said its all price action and perhaps a blend of above is healthy and may I interject a trade a basket of USD pairs and watch the DXY as my indicator.
I do, my soapbox is sentiment + momentum = trend.
My thoughts on Forex fundies is not much as tend to trade debt/interest and not the commodity pairs. So it there is a solid correlation I will try and follow it.
But my cup of tea is percent of deviation from the mean, such as using the Double Bollinger Bands with a CCI.
In my oversimplified view any price action bias is a trend it just a matter of the time and price cycle. Depending on the volumn I have a very good 5M-15M 5-25 PIP scalp, otherwise I stay above the H2 frame.
My bottom line is the market is all about strength and weakness.
Thanks for asking,