TG's Newbie's Journal - Trading, Education, and Avoiding Heartbreak

Welcome!

I figured that me posting a trade journal on the forums would allow me to be more accountable and document my pathways which may help out new traders in defining their pathways.

My goals are to try to make it as simple to read as possible and giving a whole lot of information about my trades, technical/fundamental analysis, and current education. Charts will be included as needed.

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Sounds good! I like “Simple”!

Date: 14/12/17
Pair: EURJPY
Position: Long
Lot size: 0.1
Price: 133.089
Stop Loss: 132.748 (-34.1 pips)
Take Profit: 133.900 (81.1 pips)
R-R: 1:2.37

Charts Used: D / 240 / 60

Confluence Factors:

  • Confirmed upward trendline support
  • Support and resistance of 133 and 134 psychological levels
  • Bullish RSI divergence

End result:
Stopped out due to fundamental factors (unfavourable news for EUR causing bears to drop price down past stop loss level).

What did I learn from this trade?
Due to me only relying on the confluence factors from my technical analysis (literally 100% technical, 0% fundamental), the markets decided to teach me a lesson by saying “hey, don’t forget about the news!”

Future plans:

  • Check Babypips calendar, complete thorough news analysis prior to setting trade

Nice Tom, Good luck on your journey.

I feel the same way. Make it simple :slight_smile:

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Personally, I wouldn’t take this event as a “negative” and thinking that you did something “wrong” by missing the news.

I think the only real lesson here is the awareness that all technical trend setups eventually come to an end. Your uptrend had no less than 4 “touches” and was still looking valid. But no S/R or trend lines last for ever and this was broken in this case - but that is always the trading risk and why we have stops and why we have R:R parameters, so that when things do break the damage is limited with respect to the profits that otherwise accrue when trends do continue.

Even when one considers the fundamentals, one is not able beforehand to know their outcome and if we are to jump out of trades or do not enter every time there is a potential volatile data release we would not be trading technicals at all anymore.

It is wise to always follow and be aware of the upcoming calender events and assess whether or not it is prudent to enter/stay with a trade but especially with longer term positions one data release or event does not mean a total change in the fundamental outlook. However, in this case, your reason for being in the trade from a technical status was invalidated and you exited the trade ready to wait for another opportunity - that is what it is all about.

For example, if you had been in this trade since the start of the trade and stopped out here with a profit then I think you would still be happy with the trade and even justifiably rather impressed with your own technical anlysis,

(what is that blue squiggly thing on your chart? an MA? what purpose does it serve?)

Some great advice! Thank you thank you thank you

Light blue line is a 50EMA which I use on D charts as dynamic Support/Resistance levels. I don’t use it as gospel but have had enough positive experiences with it to keep it - also have heard that the big guys have a 50 and 200 EMA on their D charts.

If it is working for you then great, that is ultimately the only criterion for keeping a technical indicator on the chart. It just did not seem to be indicating much on the 4H chart above as it seemed to be just carusing along through the middle of all the moves :smiley:

I do believe that the 200 MA (either SMA or EMA) is a popular choice amongst larger players and is one method of identifying the underlying longer term trend. At least a lot of commentaries say so! The 50 EMA is also commonly included in trading set ups either to again identify the underlying strength and direction of the trend and/or as part of an entry/exit strategy. In the latter case, it is often combined with a 20 EMA.

But of course no MA trading strategy is profitable from just working from crossovers, but like you are doing, are useful in many other ways…

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