I didn’t know “engulfing candles” were in the book.
With the EUR pairs (EURUSD, EURJPY etc) breaking higher and above the 4hr 60SMA, it may seem that it’s time to start looking for longs. I don’t agree with this.
The overall trend and fundamentals pressure is for lower levels. Because the market is over-extended, it is taking a breather in the form of a correction.
Personally, I would wait until this correction is exhausted, price finds resistance and retraces back below the 4hr 60SMA and gives some short signals, before trading this pair. Or, I would give price the time to solidify the reversal, before looking for longs.
Looking at the chart, one could say we are stuck in a range between 1.1300 - 1.1500. Beware not to get stung by the whipsaws and spikes within this range.
I’m personally on the sidelines and waiting for short signal entries on EURUSD, at this moment. Same with AUDUSD and USDCAD (longs)
Remember Duck Hunters, on Monday the Eurogroup will meet to discuss what can be done about the Greece debt.
I’d be very interested to see what impact Monday’s meeting will have on the Euro pairs.
Would really love to see Eur.Gbp tank further south in the coming week(s) and it would be nice for us trend traders to see Eur.Usd getting back below the 1.1260 area of support sometime soon (see chart below).
Have a great weekend,
Andy
Captain Currency
I would not expect EURUSD to drop significantly from here.
Take a look at the below monthly timeframe showing the last 15 years movement.
Price has made a 61.8% fib retracement and made a tiny rejection of the level.
I would not be surprised if the price retraces to 1.2000 or a bit above before going lower once again.
EUR/USD is of my trading table at the moment…I’d like to see it brake either a greater support or resistance before trading it again.
Best pair to trade in my opinion.
Just having a quick gander at Usd.Jpy Duck Hunters: a break and hold above the 119.20 area of resistance should get the bulls warmed up for more gains.
Buying on the way up, would really like to see Bulls target the 120.50 area (and possibly beyond) over the next few sessions.
Andy
Captain Currency
Greetings Duck Hunters,
Soft Spot … I do have a soft spot for trading the Eur.Gbp when it is trending. Rarely will this pair give you a whopping +100 pip winning trade but in fairness it can grind out small regular winning trades.
At the moment our First Duck (H4) would favor the selling set-ups on Eur.Gbp. The main 4 hour down trend has been heading south at Snail Speed and this might put some traders off trading this pair.
On the positive side … you won’t need a massive sized stop-loss if you’re day trading this pair, 20 - 30 pips is all I’d be risking on my stop-loss.
Andy
Captain Currency
GbpJpy is worth watching, has had a nice big drop today but slowly moving back towards a Buy situation. May be worth a punt for a day or so when it triggers all 3 ducks
Keep gbp/cad on your front burner too.
That pair has been a strong buy on dips since the beginning of the year & regularly slots into 3 Ducks mode during it’s ebb & flow.
Howdy Duck Hunters,
Don’t forget, this week we have Non Farm Payrolls on Fri (6th) plus the European Central Bank meeting and press conference afterwards on Thur (5th). I’d be expecting Eur.Usd to go a bit mad during these events so take care.
Andy
Captain Currency
Looks like we have 2 nice setups forming at the moment.
EURJPY
Will go short at the level marked on the chart with abt a 20 pip SL.
GBPUSD
While it hasn’t formed yet I am hoping to see a short move higher from the current level and then a break lower.
Will enter where the low forms with abt a 20 pip SL.
Nice system, will try to apply it on my demo first.
Its a great system Thomas. I use it for most of my trades and have a success rate of around 70%
That doesnt mean much unless you also state the size of your average winners compared to your risk.
If you have a 70% win rate but only win 0.4x your risked capital on each trade you still lose money.
Jeez, just offering some encouragement.
For what its worth, I have a 1.85 profit factor (I make 1.85 for every 1 traded)
Just stating a fact and was not meant in a negative way.
Averaging almost 2x your risked capital in profits with a 70% win rate is pretty damn impressive though.
That would equal out to 20% return on capital per 10 trades (without compounding).
If you were averaging 200 trades per year that would be 400% returns a year without compounding and ridiculously much more if you compounded the returns.
I am assuming you have altered the approach to the 3 duck strategy so you trade higher timeframes with larger stops which would equal out to much fewer trades over the course of a year?
No, I haven’t changed anything, still using H4, H1 and M5 although I do tend to move my stops and profit takes once trades move into profit to max. returns.
Which pairs are you trading eddieb? Do you stick with the major pairs captain suggests?
Just majors, nothing exotic.