Impressive indeed, (good on you eddie) but in no way unique using this approach.
Similar returns are being produced using an alternative entry trigger mentioned & explained within the content of this thread using a stochastic hook as a pullback & continuation set up executing from both hourly & sub hourly timeframe options.
2 guys have been proofing their live accounts since 2010 & 2011 respectively on a private members forum, accompanied with regular screen shots of trades utilizing Andy’s tiered multi-timeframe top down structure. It continues to perform extremely efficiently & very effectively regardless of the market conditions or volatility extremes.
1 of those guys started placing £5 per pip bets 4 years ago & the last time I looked in (end of January) his minimum bet size (on sub hourly entries) was circa £60 per pip.
He/they are generating an absolute fortune using a solid, logical approach teamed with common sense.
What I thought was impressive was the win rate while still being able to keep 1:1.8 RR.
I am doing it a bit different as my win rate is significantly lower but my average winners are also much higher.
I would not claim this system is effective regardless of the market conditions as the system is based on riding the trend so you will need trending markets to do so.
With this kind of system you have both good and bad periods.
Those people you are referring to what is their returns in % since inception?
PS: I am in no any doubting that its going well for them as I am personally up over 130% since July last year I am just curious as bet size meassured in pips means nothing to me.
I take it that increasing their bet size per pip 12 fold shows that they have grown their account to the extent that they can take much larger trades, I.e. 12 lots instead of single lots.
Its good to hear of long term successes instead of the usual high failure figures
That would be my initial thoughts as well however it could be they just went from 1% risked per trade to 3% risked per trade and all of a sudden that makes it much less impressive.
[B]Edit[/B]:
Thinking about it a 12 fold increase over 4 years is not even that extreme if you compound your returns as it would equal out to somewhere aroudn 80-85% returns a year.
But the comments regarding that average £60 bet sizing relates to sub hourly intraday set ups only. Size, including pyramiding increments for medium to longer range bets is structured slightly differently based on the objectives at inception, which considering neither of them possessed any prior experience of this business before adopting this approach, makes the consistency & timely progress they’re experiencing all the more impressive.
The point I was making when adding to eddie’s initial comments was to illustrate that a simple, logical common sense based approach minus all the fluff & fancy bells & whistles often inherent in methods & approaches within these boards, can be successfully & consistently applied & implemented over a prolonged period.
The very fact they’re confident enough to stair step their bet sizing in lock step with account growth after such a short space of time utilizing the same solid framework 5 years hence, speaks volumes not only about the quality of the minimalist structure they’re using, but also their ability to maintain discipline whilst implementing it.
Exactly.
The fewer rules there are the less likelihood to mess it up & confuse the process.
Providing of course the rules are actually based on sound, tried & tested principles - which Andy’s basic approach is.
Is that some of the guys from the Technical Templates threads? I’ve been making my way through those for a little while now, a real labour of love it is too. I took my first real live trades this week actually, based on this thread & backed up with some help from them.
Just a quick question in this system what happens if you arrive at step 3 and the price is ALREADY below the 60SMA? Do you then stay out of a trade or look to short ? For example I have followed all 3 steps however tne price was already below the SMA and on the way back up
That all depends if you want to go long or go short.
If you want to go long and price is above the 60 SMA on the 4h chart but below the SMA on the 60m chart then the 3 ducks are not lined up and you should look for another pair.
Once price breaks back above the SMA you can look at the pair again depending if the slope on the 4h chart is still sloping nicely upwards.
Just took a look in that other thread and I was under the impression you meant they used the 3 duck strategy with a few minor changes however reading some of catchers posts as far as I can see it his approach has nothing to do with the 3 duck strategy at all and instead he is purely trading support and resistance levels, unless I am missing something?
They use a multi-timeframe top down trend structure, which is essentially what 3 Ducks advocates, utilizing a pullback/breakout trigger for entry purposes, of which the stochastic hook forms an integral part of that process when executing the pullback option.
Support/resistance was replaced quite some time ago in favour of prioritizing bias as their primary influence.
I think there’s similarities in that both threads work from a multi-timeframe perspective to try & get you on the right side of the market. You take your directional bias (long or short) from your chosen higher timeframe (like the 1st duck on the 4h here), this then determines whether you’re looking for long or short opportunities on the lower timeframe(s).
There’s a few different entry options on the TT threads, such as pullbacks with Stochastic Hooks, or ‘1-2-3’ set-ups, but there’s also mention of momentum & momentum breaks throughout all the threads which is what the Captain is using here. They do introduce a few more levels such as previous Highs/Lows on the Daily/Weekly that could help in timing your entry amongst other things, but if you’ve got a 130% increase since July, you might be alright as you are
One of the most useful things I’ve found was the use of the Average Daily Range in judging entry time (eg. is there enough left in the day if you’re making intraday trades) & take profit levels.
Maybe some of the more experienced people could say something more than this though, explain it better.
EDIT - Sorry, just seen laine’s post while I was writing - thanks.
You’ve got all the bases covered right there kechel, which is all you’ll ever need to keep you facing the right way & targeting the cleaner set ups
Andy’s structure filters out the higher probability candidates perfectly which then affords you the opportunity to bring your favored trigger/s into play based on how you prefer to get aboard.
For instance, this week 3 Ducks has shuffled EUR/AUD, NZD/USD, GBP/USD & EUR/USD on Jack’s priority list.
An hourly hook got him into another pyramid short again this week on EUR/AUD
Same trigger deal on Monday for both EUR/USD where he added another bet + a fresh bite on NZD/USD
& a 5min hook got him into an intraday short on Cable earlier today with plenty of the day’s range left in the tank.
Same old background profiles & set ups, same old foreground triggers.
Hi no sorry to be clear I am talking about what happens if you want to go long and all 3 are above the MA or if you want go short and all 3 are below the MA because in the brief it discusses a cross over for the third duck. If all 3 are lined up does that mean you may be too late to enter.
1 choice open to you is simply to wait for price to break the most [B]recent low[/B] on the 5 minute chart & enter on that break (providing of course price is still trading below the 60sma on that 5 minute chart).
If the trend is established & doesn’t appear to be exhausting or weakening then the odds are that price is just as likely to continue as it is to reverse.
It might be prudent to be aware of what’s influencing the price action on that specific pair & how aggressive the momentum is.
EDIT:
I should aslo add that depending on your objectives, [B][U]time of day[/U][/B] & [B][U]available day/week average range[/U][/B] will be major factors in your decision making when trading a momentum based approach.
For instance, if your preference is to day trade & you’re seeking an entry, then you’d be very wise to take note of the pair’s average daily range coverage to determine what percentage is remaining & whether it affords you decent odds of a positive outcome.
Well if you feel it’s worth a decent punt & you’re happy you can obtain acceptable odds then providing it meets the entry criteria give it a shot!
The default set up certainly lines up ok with the 4 & 1 hour charts trading below the 60SMA.
You have a couple of choices regards entry with 2 prior 5 minute low levels to go at.
There’s a good percentage of the day’s range still in play at the point of entry with a good 2-3 hours of the european session left to check out potential for further price momentum.
If you can’t compute favourable odds to suit your own risk profile then leave it alone until you can.
