Another leg down on this relatively slow day. Keeping in mind it’s a Friday and the last day of the month, we will probably see some squaring of positions coming into the close, around the NY open. We also have important news off the US at 1:30pm GMT.
I’ve now moved my stop to 1.5315 to lock some pips.
I will probably look to lock further profits even close my position before the news. Ending the day, the week and the month on a profitable note (in the green) is always good, psychologically and for our account balance. Shouldn’t let greed get the best of us.
Once again, note the difference between two “bearish” pairs (below 4hr SMA), the GBPUSD and the EURUSD. Both have bearish sentiment nowadays, in fact both had bearish setups up to Wednesday using the 3-ducks.
The 3-ducks strategy gave us a potential signal this morning (GBPUSD) which we followed and took a position using an entry methodology. At the same time, it kept us out of the other pair (EURUSD) as it did not meet our trade criteria this morning (above 1hr SMA). Those that took a EUR short this morning were probably whipsawed on the break of the highs, even though it’ll eventually turn lower as well.
The lesson is not to chase trades. Take the good ones and wait for the remaining ones to setup appropriately. We’ll be here trading EURUSD shorts for the foreseeable future - as long as Draghi is printing euros and Greek debt creates uncertainty
What a thoroughly enjoyable & impressive read this morning fxsnowball.
A measured, controlled & efficiently managed trade using the solid structure of a quality set up.
If you read post 2192, I said that if a trade does not take off in the initial couple of hours, I look to kill it.
This is what I meant:
AUDUSD had a potential short below 0.7650, which I took.
However, it has been trading sideways for the last few hours. So I closed this trade at -5pips.
Contrast the price behavior of AUDUSD this morning to GBPUSD.
Some work out right off the gate and others just hang around to smell the roses. Same signal, same methodology, same entry philosophy. Once you are in the trade, it’s no longer in your hands whether it’s going to work or not. You just follow your exit rules mechanically (initial stop, take profit target, trailing stops).
Nothing personal against AUDUSD, but it sucked today
By now I’m getting really tempted to close the trade at 1.5250 and bag 75 pips, before the news. Price action is very slow today.
Nonetheless, I believe there is some more momentum in it. Therefore, I’ve jammed my stops to 1.5270 and will give the trade some more breathing space. Worse case, I walk away with +55 pips.
News ended up being a non-event, resulting in a wide bar with spikes on both sides but no directional movement. Brokers whipsawed traders on both the long and the short side, probably widening their spreads as well in the process.
Below the 5min chart.
That’s why I prefer to be flat into important news, unless I have a view.
So this system has worked for the past 8 years? Whats the average TP or overall pips some of you see in a average month? How long is this system expected to keep going for? Thanks really excited
Just read the E-book i didn’t know there was one. I will be trading this system next week, posting my trades daily and how I use the system. Hope everyone will join and give extra insight too!
I was working with the same pairs (plus one more) at the London open this morning. The only difference, I’m new enough to this system that I didn’t trust the trades enough to let them run through London close (noon NY). Still building confidence.
GU +40
AU +5 (due to the same loitering price action that you spoke of)
EA +30
Total of +75 for the day. I won’t complain about that. But, I do see the value in letting the trade run so as not to leave so many pips on the table. I’ll continue to work on that aspect next week.
For the 1H trading method without using the 5M, is that as reliable as the system that lasted the 12 years? And do you enter on the 4H or 1H chart? Thanks in advance, i like the way you trade I’m interested in learning it.
So long as you can move your stop to profit you should be ok to let trades run. Sure, a few will turn back and you wont make so much but the ones that run on can be very rewarding.
Its also a very relaxing way to trade, turn the pc off, go for a beer, come back tomorrow, count the profits
So an observation on points 2 and 6 -
Point 2 - I am conflicted - as I also find that - as you set b.e. when at 30-40 pips - sometimes / many times actually T.P. here amounts to many more good little trades?? And 3 or 4 of these little ones - is just like the big winner (I am not disagreeing with you at all - I am just wondering if there is sense to taking many little profits - which from my standpoint - then how do you get the big ones? (If you limit yourself to modest TP levels - you may never experience the 100+ levels of winners.)
(Thoughts or comments on my dillemma are appreciated.
Point 6. is where you state to b.e. at 30-40 pips - I am super similar - after about 15 20 pips, I do reduce risk as well - sort of sneaking up the S.L. (Example if in profit 20 pips - - I surely don’t want to risk 20 pips anymore - -I’ll move it to 15 or likely 10 pips risk - - retaining a 30 pip cushion if you will. Do you do this as well or are you a wait and don’t fiddle with it?
London open is 2am my time. So I’d turn off the pc and go to bed. But yes, I agree, and had I done that on Friday, I would’ve woke up to at least double the +70 that I actually banked. I’m not unhappy with the +70, I just need to ease up the confidence in the strategy slowly. I’ve been at this for 5+ years (2 years demo, and the last 3 years live). And I’ve lost a boatload of $$$ up to this point. I need something simple, as Andy has said, a few primary rules that I can remember… rather than a bunch of rules in a trading plan that does nothing more than confuse and overwhelm. I’m hoping ‘the ducks’ is that strategy.
I’ve read the free e-book, plus the “paid” advanced course / videos, and am now working my way quietly through this thread. I don’t have any questions that I can’t figure out on my own (I’m happy to do my own donkey work). I’m just enjoying the thread posts where members show their charts, entries, and results. Plus, I’m scrolling back through the last year’s worth of my live charts and marking areas on the 4H and then dropping down through the 5m to see exactly what the price action did at the London open. The strategy is a little difficult to back test in Forex Tester (manually), so I’m just looking at previous moves on my live charts and taking screenshots for reference.
ETA: Here’s a question I just came up with… way back on post #145, there’s a “3 Ducks Alert” mql4 file. Looks pretty handy. I’ve downloaded it, copy/pasted it to my mql>indicators folder, restarted MT4, dragged/dropped it onto a few charts, and… nothing. I know I’ve loaded it to the correct folder in the correct manner. Just wondering if someone knows, does this alert not work with the new MT4 build?
I think i will trade the 3 ducks system like this.
D1 chart to get direction and main support and resistance point’s.
4H to confirm the d1 chart direction and add a fib from last week high/low to new weeks high/low, and add my current support and resistance points as point 1 where D1’s will be point 2.
And the 1H chart as my entry chart, enter when 3rd duck is lined up on 1H and take entry at last price high or low one price hits there not candle close. And place SL at recent high or low on 1H and tp at 100pips and move my SL with price as well move TP as needed.
This indicator was written with some old syntax, which doesn’t work with the current builds of MT4.
I made some changes in the code to make it work again and attached the file.
As an alternative, I added the dashboard I wrote for myself.
It shows the current state of the three charts for every selected symbol.
it changes the color of the symbols name:
—> red - H4 and H1 bearish, M5 bullish - we are waiting for M5 to break below the SMA
—> green - H4 and H1 bullish, M5 bearish - we are waiting for M5 to break above the SMA
—> black - nothing that special, either all timeframes are lined up or H1 and H4 don’t line up
the colors (green, red and black in my case) are adjustable. I use a white background on MT4. But when someone uses a black or just a dark background, he might want to change the colors
alert-function included as well (although it is a little bit poorly testet, as I don’t use the alert by myself).
All you have to do is to load the dashboard onto a new chart and set up this chart so it won’t disturb the dashboard. Or you can just use the template.
The three ducks indi seems to work and change bearish / bullish but, the dashboard (at least on my charts since the asian open today) is staying all “red” (bearish) for all pairs.
All the pairs are red? that isn’t normal… Really all pairs? Can you post a screenshot?
Try to remove the dashboard and drag it on the chart again. I just checked my charts an the dashboard seems to be perfectly fine (except a failure with the alert, which seems to do to alerts.)
