Ooops, looks like the three ducks indicator isn’t tracking the 5m correctly…
might be best to not trust an indicator and just do a quick scroll through each chart on the 4h, 1h, 5m timeframes instead.
Good morning all and a profitable month ahead for you!
Although I normally don’t trade on Mondays, this looks like an interesting setup on GBPUSD 1hr. Ducks are confirming on the higher timeframes. My entry is around 1.5282 and I will feel a lot more comfortable once we clear the overnight consolidation with a clean break below 1.5260.
EURUSD is also going through a similar setup.
Note how the dollar index (DXY on Tradingview) is also setting up for a breakout to the upside.
If we can get some momentum going on US$, along with weakness in EUR and GBP, it could be a runner for the first day of the month.
Keep some breathing space in those trailing stops…
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Same here on GU, short @ 1.5294
And EURUSD for completeness - entry below 1.0940, just as it was breaking the 1hr SMA.
Fishing nets have been cast. Now we sit back and wait for the big fish.
Keep posting snowball… I learn a lot from you !!
Am watching AU also…
I’m keeping it to two positions max, too much correlation on the US$ long trade.
AUDUSD is still consolidating.
if I were to take a 3rd position I’d be long on USDCAD
Hmmm… something about the two big bearish pins on the USDCAD 4h that I don’t like for a long position. But… to each their own, eh? 
Sure, I agree about the two pin-bars putting a hold on the uptrend.
However, notice that the retracement was shallow, only about 100 pips. This indicates underlying buying strength.
Very valid point sir.
I’m going back through some of your older posts but, am not finding anything specific re: how you set your targets. Can you elaborate on that ???
Personally, I kind of like a three bar exit, where I manually trail my stop behind the high of the last three bars in a downtrend, or below the low of the last three bars in an uptrend. Seems to keep me in the trade longer yet, still give the position some breathing space.
I’ve simplified how I set profit targets greatly, after being burned and giving back significant profits in the past.
> Stop Loss of 30 pips
> Take Profit target of 100 pips
> Trailing stops on high/low of 3 bars on 1hr to lock profits
This gives a R:R of 3:1 when achieved, which is plenty. It also leads to more frequent Take Profit targets being met.
Waiting for the 150 or 200 pip moves usually means leaving positions open overnight, which I don’t like, or running the risk of the move reversing back.
Keeping it simple.
Yep, sounds very similar to what I described.
I’ve always heard that “100 pips is a gift… take it and be happy.” lol
Stops now at breakeven on both trades for a free ride, after 40+ pips on GBP and 35 on EUR.
Being extra careful this week, with all the news coming out and Greece on the wire.
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I took +60 on GU and +30 on EU.
Both closed for a total of +90. I’m done for the day and going to bed (4:30am my time).
:24:
Okay as a newbie, I’m looking for a simple strategy I can get my teeth into, and I think this might be it. I have before this been playing in a practice account, trying my hand at scalping, so that I can see result quicker etc. I’ve learnt some but I also reckon the longer game might be better suited to the beginner, not least because assuming you at least get the basic trend right you’re likely to come out with something more often than not. So I’m think looking at 1-2 day trades might be a good play.
Anyway back to the strategy in hand. I’ve scanned through the thread, and I’d like summarise my understand of the startergy partly for my benefit, and partly for anyone else like me that is coming to this part 8 years after it started I’ll stick with the 3 chart plan for me (mainly because my oanda platform doesn’t allow sma over 500 bars) but you could do this on one chart with 3 sma.
So using a 60SMA on the 4 hour chart we check which side of the line the price action is, we’ll assume that it’s below for the rest of this.
Now check the 1 hour chart, to make sure the price is also below.
Now finally, we move to the 5min chart, and look for the price to move below the 60sma and as confirmation also dip below the last dip. That is now our entry signal for the sell position.
Next our exit strategy. My thoughts are look for the last area of support\resistance and place a stop loss and place it just beyond it. Set a take profit at about half the daily movement on your chosen pair. And because I like safety blankets, once in profit by 20 pips or so, set a trailing stop loss to breakeven.
So what do people think, have I understood the entrance strategy correctly? does my exist strategy sound good?
Really appreciate the effort to educate us fxsnowball.
Thanks.
Just helpful to see someone who has gained some confidence in his approach…and fit it to his personality.
Great stuff!
You are welcome.
Half the battle is finding the right strategy to fit your personality and temperament.
The other half is trusting that it works and implementing it, rather than always trying to change or optimize it.
There are times, like this period, that a trend-following strategy like the 3-ducks works wonders. I am showing its potential in my trades.
There are other times when it’ll whipsaw you to death. I’ve been through those as well, earned my battle scars and learned my lessons. The biggest one is to “sit on yer hands” when you don’t have a valid signal and wait for trending markets to return.
By keeping at it, you learn to better identify which mode the market is. I now know when to push for profits (like GBPUSD today) and when to play defence. It comes with experience and I’m sharing my lessons.
This system has worked and will work for as long as there are sustained trends in the market.
However, there are no magic pills. This system works when the markets are trending and will whipsaw you when the markets are consolidating. Through time and observation you learn to understand when you are in one type of market or the other.