A classic 3 Ducks entry imminent on the NZD/USD.
Fingers crossed…
4h:
1h:
5m:
Well that trade went well!
Could any bright spark care to offer their opinion on why that was a bad entry please??
It looked like a good entry according to the Captain’s rules.
Hi, is this system still working well and is anyone here still using it’s base method?
Are there any tweaks to it that can make it a better system?
It works well when there is an established trend in place on a pair of currencies. Unfortunately currencies only trend about 20% of the time, so you need to remain disciplined and not take every signal at face value.
IMHO you need to apply much more knowledge than the basic system to make money consistently. I’ve been trading the method for a while now and would be happy to share my top tips for it if that would be of interest?
Here are three examples:
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Do not trade if there is an extended trend on the 4hr chart, as a consolidation period or reversal is likely. The MA might be pointing in your direction but price will be erratic. Many times you’ll see the MA pointing up or down but price is flattening out or moving towards it. You’ll burn your account if you constantly trade in this situation.
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Entering a few pips above or below a previous high/low means you will have missed a good part of the move already. Better to get in earlier.
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Define risk on the 5 min chart and reward on the 1 hr chart, that way your r/r ratio will be HUGE. My account grew phenomenally when I started to apply this approach.
Let me know if you want more tips earned through direct experience of using this system.
Quack, quack, quack.
AD
Hy AD,
Thank you very much for the advice. Appreciate it alot!
A few questions are in my mind right now:
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How do you define an extended trend as it is quite subjective yeah? What goes low can go lower and vice versa. Do you count the candlesticks and if it goes past a certain number, you stop trading?
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How long have you been trading this system and are you consistently profitable?
Once again, thank you for your helpfulness!
Kelvin
Hello Kelvin
No problem.
I have some objective measures to define a short, average and extended trend. Then I’ve applied them to the markets and tweaked over time based on ongoing performance. It’s not an exact science but it does keep me out of the market during choppy periods which really does stop major drawdown on my account. For example when the market has just made a big and quick move on the 4hr chart you’ll notice that while the 60ma shows a trend, there really isn’t one in place so I stay out of the market. This is the sort of thing I’ve picked up over time.
I’ve been trading the system for about 10 months now. Do very well from it. Nicely profitable for the last 6 months. 
Quack, quack, quack.
Abe
Hi Abe Dunker
I also would like to say thanks for your advice
When you say " I have some objective measures to define a short, average and extended trend."
Would you mind giving us an example of this with a chart.
Thanks
Thanks for sharing such details about 3 Duck’s trading system. Now I think need to try it.
Sure. Here’s a chart showing wave counts on the AUDUSD 4Hr for the last few weeks. It’s not Gann, it’s something else. It’s a bespoke indicator that uses a combination of trend and stochastic to identify important highs and lows. MT4 plots the numbers automatically for me. I generally trade in the direction of the trend during the first 5 waves on the 4hr chart and wait for reversals after that. It’s served me very well. Gets me in early in the trend and stops me getting killed when the trend becomes extended. That’s it in a nutshell.
It’s how I’ve made the 3 ducks system my own. As Captain Currency recommends ;).
Hope that’s helpful.
Quack, quack, quack.
Abe
Abe
thanks for your time
Ahoy there Duck Hunters!
A quick Monday market scan and it looks like our First Duck (H4) would favor:
Buying set-ups on:
Aud.Usd
Gbp.Usd
Selling set-ups on:
Eur.Gbp
Eur.Usd
Good trading for the rest of this week Trend Traders,
Andy
Captain Currency
Hello Captain!
On your EURUSD chart above you say to look for selling opportunities. However following the principles set out in the advanced 3D course you’d probably be looking to buy. How do you decide which way to go?
Thanks
Abe
On my screen its a sell on h4, sell in h1, and sell on m5
You’ll earn your sea legs in no time Adam, welcome on board!
For all Trend Traders, a wee bit of care and caution will be needed in advance of this Friday’s Non Farm Payroll numbers.
If you’ve got an open position (in profit) you might want to consider moving your stop-loss to break-even as a minimum ahead of this fundamental announcement on Fri the 2nd of Oct.
NFP, I’d really love to see some positive employment numbers coming out of the US, this could help drive pairs like Gbp.Usd and Eur.Usd lower, bears would be back in control.
Safe and profitable trading to you all,
Andy
Captain Currency
Abe, where can we get this indicator? Looks interesting.
Greeting Duck Hunters,
Ahhh shucks … the poor employment figures out of the US last Friday didn’t help the down-trend on pairs like Gbp.Usd or even Eur.Usd.
My thinking for this week ahead (5 - 9 Oct), near-term there is of course potential for strength on Gbp.Usd but in the back of my mind I’d reckon sellers will be ready to come back in.
Now despite the likeliness of some form of rally up in the near-term, I’d much prefer to be bearish and looking for the selling set-ups on the Gbp.Usd when all our Ducks line up.
I’d be hoping to see a move back down towards those lows at $1.5100 (or lower) by the end of this week, let’s see how it pans out!
Andy
Captain Currency
Momentum is sure with the Bulls on Aud.Usd!
A quick Monday market scan and it looks like our First Duck (H4) would favor:
Buying set-ups on:
Aud.Usd
Gbp.Usd
Eur.Usd
Eur.Jpy
Selling set-ups on:
Usd.Cad
Good trading for this week Duck Hunters,
Andy
Captain Currency
I Agree captain currency!
This is my outlook for this week
I’d like to see a strong break and close below 1.2900 on USDCAD on the daily chart. Then I will look to short that pair.
The AUDUSD is looking good for a long, the AUD bank rate statement last week gave influence that the AUD should receive some strength while the USD is suffering from weak minutes release and unlikely rate hike this year.
GBPNZD and GBPAUD i’m also looking at, they both are looking good for shorts, especially sense the GBP has been under pressure that their inflation is a little weak, and a rate hike isn’t likely until spring of next year.
If I take any of these trades, Ill let y’all know!
Happy trading
Jason :43:
Jason, like you I am waiting for USDCAD to break 1.29.
I filled a long order on AUDUSD overnight (US) at .735, with s/l now near breakeven and target at .7395.
EDIT: Closed the trade at +10 pips, as I don’t tend to like holding trades through the New York close.