hello,
I am going to try this system. where can I get pdf or additional help and where can i see a few examples of winning/losing trades?
thanks
Great - welcome and good luck. May I suggest you create your own âpdfâ or âadditional helpâ for example look at any possible trade that could have been had today? Are there any? Did they win? etc. ⌠And, a piece of advice⌠it doesnât matter if I see a winning or losing trade, it only matters what you see.
was there a possible trade on NZD/USD today? does this pair look like a good pair to go long or short on today?
Also, this isnât a âstrictâ system to follow, use it more to train what to look for, it is a way to view the market.
Thatâs good advice.
One or two half decent set ups this week across the board using this as your compass.
Looks like youâve finally assembled what appears to be a comfortable framework in which to operate, from the common themes youâve invested in.
Good to see.
Hi. Thanks for responding. Iâm still trying to succeed at this. I never really looked at it like that. If i saw 2 highly correlated trades, iâd get into one, then when the first gets to BE, get into the other if itâs a nice looking trend. I just thought that since the first would end in zero at least, itâs as though i never took it in the first place and swapped it for another opportunity (assuming things reverse as u say) . the thing is, if you never take other positions that are correlated (after getting to BE), then you wonât have as many opportunities will you?? doesnât that phase you? (thinking of 4h frame here)
email the captain for a pdf of the basic system, then just work your way through this thread.There are loads of good examples. If you just read 10 pages a day youâll be done within a month and all it will cost you is your time,what a bargain
i see correlation differently now. Clintâs advice makes sense. rather than launching a new highly correlated trade after achieving BE, one is probably better off pyramiding, or increasing the risk percentage if they want more money (also can split risk up between correlated tradesâŚ). thanks Clint and Captain. hopefully my system will work out. still testing.
Hi Andy and/or other expert duck hunters:
I decided to join this thread because I like to be with the winners.
After analyzing some charts with 3 Ducks guidelines, I have one question:
Sometime the price is above 1H and 4H SMA.
In 5 min chart it is under the SMA, then it goes above and also breaks a previous high (we should go long here).
But it quikly comes back below the SMA (it is like a false breakout of the SMA) and keeps falling.
It would be a losing trade had we bought the break of the SMA and previous high.
Here is an example (the two red circles shows âfalse breakâ):
I think this happens because in 5min it is actually a down trend: the SMA is sloping downward, price is making lower lows and lower highs, and we can draw a down trend line.
So, I think perhaps we should go long only if the 5 min SMA is sloping upward showing a good up trend (then we will buy when the price is above the SMA and breaks a previous high)?
Thanks!
In my previous post I inserted an image only one time (under the paragraph âHere is an exampleâ.
But the same image also appears at the end of the post as an âattached imageâ.
How should I do to show the image only once?
Hi Beijin,
One option for increasing the odds in favor of your trade, is to wait until the price, on the 5 min chart, not just crosses the MA, but also makes a higher high and a higher low, and then when price breaks the higher high - thatâs when you enter. In other words, you enter after price shows signs of trend behaviour on the 5 min chart that coincides with the higher TF charts.
In the image below, imagine that price is above the MA on the higher timeframes and youâre looking to enter long. I wouldnât enter straight at the spot I marked with a red cross, when price just crosses.
I would enter at the green arrow where price has made a higher low and now breaks the previous high. Thatâs where the higher odds trade entry is.
I hope it makes some sense. Iâm not an expert at 3 ducks, so maybe the Captain will have better advice for you.
Thank you MH!
Yes, I think it makes sense: wait for the 5min showing uptrend by making higher highs and higher lows, so we can draw a mini uptrend line connecting 2 lows.
Just an observation: in your chart, we shouldnât go long at the red cross, according to the 3 Ducks guidelines, because it has not broken a previous high.
We should enter at the high after the green arrow, because here it breaks a previous high.
So, in this case your idea and the original 3 Ducks guideline show the same entry point.
Fwiw the pairs I am looking at this week GB NZd EU AU
The Aussie looks good but has a fair bit of resistance around the .7690 area but if that fails could get a decent run
Hello everyone!
I was wonderingâŚ
Letâs suppose we are in Zone 1 where, of course, we are under SMA, but isnât too risky to look for a sell in this zone? We are in a very over-sold area and a Pullback is very likely.
Isnât wiser to wait until price reach the Zone 2 and there we can look for sell signal?(Like it happened here, but the question is purely theoretical)
Thanks for your opinions!
Only very best wishes from me!
Hi Duckhunters,
Just curious. How is duck hunting during the summer, which is supposed to be the slowest forex time of the year?
Thanks,
Norm
Unfortunately your zone 2 the pressure seems to be up, it is a little scary for me to simply state it is time to sell. however, notwithstanding other factors. . . if price were to reach that zone, then demonstrate a downward pressure. It might then be a go for a short.
Where, is the sma, on the 1hr chart in this example? Duck 2?
Looking back through a couple of my diaries june july seem a couple of my worst months ,thats only over a couple of years though so not a great sample. And record keeping wasnt great as i didnt always not whether it was 3 ducks trade or not so make of it what you will.
Fwiw the most consistent months seemed to be sept oct nov
For what itâs worth (if anything) I suspect - but canât prove - that in general, the Northern-hemisphere summer months of July and August tend overall to be slightly less reliable for [U]all[/U] systems traded from time-based charts, and that the period from early September until mid-December tends to be significantly better (but that that observation [I]doesnât[/I] remain valid if one trades from volume-based charts instead, and I think there are probably-fairly-understandable reasons for that).
Thanks, Perch for your entry.
Of course, at that time SMA on H1 it was under the price action, but I wasnât talk about an entry on Zone 2 only if the SMA form both H4 and H1 were above the price.
In the meantime the price reached SMA 60 on H4 and start to react, such that SMA H1 went also above the price action, so we have 2 of 3 ducks.
What I meant with my question was: isnât to dangerous to sell from such an oversold area, like Zone 1?
Thanks a lot!
Then the answer is no. It is no more dangerous to get in short here than it would have been for zone 2.
BUT there is a caveot. . . . . if zone 1 presented itself, say later on on Friday. (ie, no trading on Friday. . .but if you were going to and it was later on Friday. ⌠then this would be to risky.) so there are other factors to consider rather than just the zone.
Howdy Norm, I think we might be in very different parts of the world (Ireland here).
I tend not to get too bogged-down in seasonality. My approach has always been; firstly scan a basket of Fx pairs and if a pair is trending, we have our green light OR if everything is going sideways (flat as a pancake) its golf time!
January was a good month for me, to be honest I was half expecting January to be a âslow monthâ, just goes to prove why I shouldnât pre-empt what the market conditions might be like.
Stats for: Nov '16 - Feb '17
Number of trades: 59
Win rate: 64.41%
Avg trade duration: 1.1 day
Avg win: 34.80 pips (1.05%)
Avg loss: -45.46 pips (-0.92%)
Return: 26.16%
Max. Drawdown: -11.84%
Iâd be very interested to read what the other active forum members think about seasonality, have you observed certain market condition during some months/periods (or not)? Do let us know.
Take care,
Andy
Captain Currency
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What are you risking per trade and how many positions can you have at any one time? Those results are impressive!.