The 3 Duck's Trading System

[speed_bump]

Price levels that show recent evidence of rejection signify hesitancy or indecision. Once price action fails to penetrate such a level or zone it illuminates it from both sides.

Depending on the prior strength of the zone, significant amounts of offers & buy stops begin building to take advantage of the possible 2 way action anticipated to play out there next time around. EUR/USD at current levels is a classic example of this battle.

That’s a great post. I’ve never really looked at the way price action moves around a level like this before, but it has encouraged me to pay more attention when I witness it happening like this again, so for that I thank you.

Pullback traders are positioned long into 1.3275 & 1.3325 (the high of the previous 2 weeks) from last weeks lows looking for a chance to check out the follow through buy stop activity above that dual resistance.

Offers are obviously in evidence up there too judging by the rejection of last week & the repeat performance on the approach from Monday & Tuesday.

[B]When tackling levels such as this from the long side it pays to get in ahead of the resistance zone to reduce the risk of being whipsawed out as the battle ensues between orders offering the level & bids attempting to push through seeking the stops laying beyond the upper resistance zone.[/B]

Again, an interesting & logical slant & the more I think about it, the more sense it makes.
So the 4 & 1 hour trend which still remains bullish & confirmed by the upward sloping moving averages, would continue to attract a long view. And what you’re suggesting is to use the entry trigger in a more flexible way?

I came across this post by DoubleEcho further back in the thread where he was dicussing alternative entry options. I assume something like this would fit in with the comments you’re referring to?

Thanks again for a post that has encouraged me to look at the entry part of this great little strategy from another angle.

One option would be to view potential entries as pullbacks & trade them accordingly.
By playing the entry as an early bird pullback as opposed to a break up/down through a natural swing high/low on that 5minute chart.

Regards the trigger, I’ll simply refer you to the Technical Templatesd Continued thread & recommend you look up Carll’s posts in direct reference to the stochastic hook entry.
He uses it in on one of his models in very strict harmony with the average days range, which is a key ingredient of the material on that collection of work over there.

ps: apparently there was a link to the Technical Templates thread in my reply & as I don’t have 5 posts I can’t include links in any posts I submit, so I’ve simply typed it in so as not to cause confusion.

[jjbev]

Cheers guys. That was a very helpful, fair and balanced pair of responses.

[Ray_1]

So the 4 & 1 hour trend which still remains bullish & confirmed by the upward sloping moving averages, would continue to attract a long view. And what you’re suggesting is to use the entry trigger in a more flexible way?

I came across this post by DoubleEcho further back in the thread where he was dicussing alternative entry options. I assume something like this would fit in with the comments you’re referring to?

ps: apparently there was a link to the Technical Templates thread in my reply & as I don’t have 5 posts I can’t include links in any posts I submit, so I’ve simply typed it in so as not to cause confusion.

This is the link:
http://forums.babypips.com/free-forex-trading-systems/29902-technical-templates-continued.html

[odds_on]

So the 4 & 1 hour trend which still remains bullish & confirmed by the upward sloping moving averages, would continue to attract a long view.

And what you’re suggesting is to use the entry trigger in a more flexible way?

Yes, as long as it doesn’t unbalance or compromize the key elements of the strategy.
You’ve already got a logical top down sequence to guide you. The major plus being it’ll keep you facing the right way for the majority of the time that prices are moving in one direction & reduce the temptation to try catch every little wiggle the market makes.

The op has recommended folks experiment with entries & exits. Don’t be afraid to work slightly outside the box. Use the generics of the strategy as your foundations & tune the entry & exit specifics to suit your personal trading style. It doesn’t hurt to have a small tried & tested selection of entry triggers up your sleeve.

I came across this post by DoubleEcho further back in the thread where he was dicussing alternative entry options. I assume something like this would fit in with the comments you’re referring to?

If that technique pushes your buttons & works in tandem with the 4 & 1 hour directional view then why not do as the guy suggests by testing it out & monitoring the results. You’ll soon discover if it fits your style or not.

[speed_bump]

Pullback traders are positioned long into 1.3275 & 1.3325 (the high of the previous 2 weeks) from last weeks lows looking for a chance to check out the follow through buy stop activity above that dual resistance.

When tackling levels such as this from the long side it pays to get in ahead of the resistance zone to reduce the risk of being whipsawed out as the battle ensues between orders offering the level & bids attempting to push through seeking the stops laying beyond the upper resistance zone.

If you can’t obtain a low risk entry leading into a strong support or resistance zone, then wait for the zone to break & get re-tested first before committing your order.

Today’s events shaped up exactly as presented.

3 Ducks still pointing to the upside this week, supporting your comments about traders preferring the long side into the resistance zones. Even the pullback aspect to those previous resistance levels played out this afternoon as described.

Very impressive analysis, thanks again for an insightful post. I’m definitely going to steer my work down this route going forward & will certainly keep a sharp eye out for more of your contributions.

[shadowline]

Very impressive analysis, thanks again for an insightful post. I’m definitely going to steer my work down this route going forward

I agree, its good quality information. It looks like odds on possesses a similar style of analysis to the folks who headed up the Technical Templates threads that Ray_1 & DoubleEcho linked to.

If you’re seeking to soak up more knowledge & info on how support & resistance concepts will compliment your 3 Ducks structure I would very strongly recommend you visit the last 2 of those superb threads. They are packed with the types of stuff odds on & cator have been touching on here.

They’ve been around on here as long as Andy. Unfortunately most of them no longer frequent Babypips, but there are some seriously smart traders hanging out in there.

[Ray_1]

I agree, its good quality information. It looks like odds on possesses a similar style of analysis to the folks who headed up the Technical Templates threads that Ray_1 & DoubleEcho linked to.

If you’re seeking to soak up more knowledge & info on how support & resistance concepts will compliment your 3 Ducks structure I would very strongly recommend you visit the last 2 of those superb threads.

Just by reading this thread and the Technical Template thread, you will be good to go. The most impt thing these 2 threads preach are keeping trading as simple as possible.

1. Identify a directional bias
2. use your trading trigger in synch with your directional bias.
3. have a proper money management

[aidysproule]

Just coded an EA based on this strategy, for a long entry it checks that the bid price is higher than the 60sma on H4, H1 & M5 charts, then it checks to make sure that the PSAR is below the bid price on the M5 chart, if so then it goes long, and uses the H1 60SMA as a trailing SL. Not using a TP as I want to let any profits run.

Does the opposite for a sell and uses the ask price instead of the bid.

Just added to my live account so we’ll see whats happens!

[Captain_Currency]

Hello Guys n Gals,

[B]Thought for Today:[/B]
Tomorrow is the first day of a new trading month and 2 simple things you could think about doing are:

[B]1.[/B] Put last month behind you, if February was a bad trading month, March gives you a new start.

[B]2.[/B] One month at a time, just focus on the month ahead. If your goal is to make 3-5% per month and you reach you goal a week before the month ends – stop trading, take a few days off from your charts and go into the next month feeling good and with the wisdom that you can make a few percent in a month.

If you take it one month at a time it allows you to measure your progress and performance.

[B]Simple Market Scan[/B]
Below is my mid-week “Simple Market Scan” using The 3 Ducks Trading System and my preference for the next few days.

[B]February 29th 2012[/B]

[B]Eur.Usd[/B] – current spot price is 1.3437, I would be looking for buying opportunities when my 3 ducks line up.

[B]Gbp.Usd[/B] – current spot price is 1.5958, I would be looking for buying opportunities when my 3 ducks line up.

[B]Eur.Gbp[/B] – current spot price is 0.8420, the Eur and the Gbp are currently about the same strength so neither currency has a real advantage over the other at the moment.

[B]Usd.Chf[/B] – current spot price is 0.8991, I would be looking for selling opportunities when my 3 ducks line up. A break below the 0.8930 area is needed for the bears to be in control.

[B]Aud.Usd[/B] – current spot price is 1.0809, it looks like it wants to go up but can it? I would prefer to be looking for buying opportunities when my 3 ducks line up.

[B]Usd.Cad[/B] – current spot price is 0.9892, I would be looking for selling opportunities when my 3 ducks line up.

[B]Usd.Jpy[/B] – current spot price is 80.63, this pair has been trending up nicely over the last few weeks and I would be looking for buying opportunities when my 3 ducks line up.

[B]Eur.Jpy[/B] – current spot price is 108.02, I would be looking for buying opportunities when my 3 ducks line up. A break above the 108.76 would be good for buyers.

Hope that helps you.

Keep it Simple
[I][B]Andy[/B][/I]

These are not trade recommendations. The 3 Ducks Trading System is best used as a set of guidelines with discretion in addition with your own market analysis and trading ideas. I do not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

[Captain_Currency]

It’s [B]World Book Day[/B] today and if anybody would like a free copy of The 3 Duck’s Trading System e-book, a simple system that will improve your trading, details are on The Captain Currency blog.

The e-book is a quick read (1 hour) and you’ll want to go back to it time and time again.

The 3 Duck’s Trading System e-book was published in 2007 and has been helpful to traders.

[B]The Foundation for Successful Trading[/B]
What the 3 ducks are trying to get you to do are LOGICALLY scan your charts and LOGICALLY trade your charts as well as keeping it SIMPLE!

Happy Reading,
Andy

[Captain_Currency]

Good morning Duck Hunters,

[B]Stay Safe - Get Out of DODGE![/B]
Mind yourself with the EUR, GBP, CAD and NZD pairs because there will be a rate statement out for these pairs tomorrow (Thur).

And also mind yourself this Friday on all currency pairs as The Non-Farm Payrolls are due to be released.

[B]Simple Market Scan[/B]
Below is my mid-week “Simple Market Scan” using The 3 Ducks Trading System and my preference for the next few days.

[B]Wednesday March 7th 2012[/B]

[B]Eur.Usd[/B] – current spot price is 1.3135, I would be looking for selling opportunities when my 3 ducks line up.

[B]Gbp.Usd[/B] – current spot price is 1.5726, I would be looking for selling opportunities when my 3 ducks line up.

[B]Eur.Gbp[/B] – current spot price is 0.8351, GBP is currently a bit stronger than the EUR and I would be looking for selling opportunities when my 3 ducks line up. A break below the 0.8300 area is needed for the bears to be back in control.

[B]Usd.Chf[/B] – current spot price is 0.9175, I would be looking for buying opportunities when my 3 ducks line up.

[B]Aud.Usd[/B] – current spot price is 1.0558, its been down for the last few days and I would be looking for selling opportunities when my 3 ducks line up.

[B]Usd.Cad[/B] – current spot price is 0.9998, I would be neutral on this pair at the moment so sitting on my hands.

[B]Usd.Jpy[/B] – current spot price is 80.77, I would be looking for buying opportunities when my 3 ducks line up. A break above the 0.8160 area is needed for the bulls to be back in control.

[B]Eur.Jpy[/B] – current spot price is 106.11, neutral on this pair at the moment but a break and hold below the 105.60 area could get me bearish and looking for selling opportunities when my 3 ducks line up.

Hope that helps you.

Until next time, Stay Safe,
[I][B]Andy[/B][/I]

These are not trade recommendations. The 3 Ducks Trading System is best used as a set of guidelines with discretion in addition with your own market analysis and trading ideas. I do not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

[Captain_Currency]

Hello Duck Hunters,

[B]Stay Safe [/B]
Mind yourself with the CHF pairs because there will be a rate statement out for this currency tomorrow (Thur).

[B]Simple Market Scan[/B]
Below is my mid-week “Simple Market Scan” using The 3 Ducks Trading System and my preference for the next few days.

[B]Wednesday March 14th 2012 [/B]

[B]Eur.Usd[/B] – current spot price is 1.3057, I would be looking for selling opportunities when my 3 ducks line up.

[B]Gbp.Usd[/B] – current spot price is 1.5703, I would be looking for selling opportunities when my 3 ducks line up. A break below the 1.5650 area is needed for the bears to be back in control.

[B]Eur.Gbp[/B] – current spot price is 0.8315, GBP is currently stronger than the EUR and I would be looking for selling opportunities when my 3 ducks line up.

[B]Usd.Chf[/B] – current spot price is 0.9268, I would be looking for buying opportunities when my 3 ducks line up.

[B]Aud.Usd[/B] – current spot price is 1.0477, I would be looking for selling opportunities when my 3 ducks line up.

[B]Usd.Cad[/B] – current spot price is 0.9933, I would be looking for buying opportunities when my 3 ducks line up.

[B]Usd.Jpy[/B] – current spot price is 83.36, Same as last week, I would be looking for buying opportunities when my 3 ducks line up.

[B]Eur.Jpy[/B] – current spot price is 108.90, still a bit neutral on this pair at the moment so no trade.

Hope that helps you.
[I][B]Andy[/B][/I]

These are not trade recommendations. The 3 Ducks Trading System is best used as a set of guidelines with discretion in addition with your own market analysis and trading ideas. I do not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

[Captain_Currency]

Happy St. Patricks Day Duck Hunters.

[I][B]Andy[/B][/I]

[Captain_Currency]

Hello Guys,

[B]Simple Market Scan[/B]
Below is my mid-week “Simple Market Scan” using The 3 Ducks Trading System and my preference for the next few days.

[B]Wednesday March 21st 2012[/B]

[B]Eur.Usd[/B] – current spot price is 1.3274, a bit of recent strength on the Euro lately and I would be looking for buying opportunities when my 3 ducks line up. Above 1.3300 keeps the bulls happy.

[B]Gbp.Usd[/B] – current spot price is 1.5913, I would be looking for buying opportunities when my 3 ducks line up.

[B]Eur.Gbp[/B] – current spot price is 0.8341, Euro and GBP are currently both strong at the moment so neither pair has any real advantage over the other so no trade on this pair at the moment.

[B]Usd.Chf[/B] – current spot price is 0.9085, I would be looking for selling opportunities when my 3 ducks line up. A break back above the 0.9180 area would get me neutral/bullish on this pair.

[B]Aud.Usd[/B] – current spot price is 1.0513, Aussie Dollar is still under pressure to the downside and I would be looking for selling opportunities when my 3 ducks line up.

[B]Usd.Cad[/B] – current spot price is 0.9883, I would be neutral on this pair at the moment so sitting on my hands.

[B]Usd.Jpy[/B] – current spot price is 83.75, same as the last few weeks - bullish and I would be looking for buying opportunities when my 3 ducks line up.

[B]Eur.Jpy[/B] – current spot price is 111.16, Euro is sticking the boot in against the JPY at the moment and I would be looking for buying opportunities when my 3 ducks line up.

Hope that helps you.

[I][B]Andy[/B][/I]

These are not trade recommendations. The 3 Ducks Trading System is best used as a set of guidelines with discretion in addition with your own market analysis and trading ideas. I do not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

[vessel18]

The ducks lined up for me on AUDUSD earlier this morning so I got on it and took some pips.

[d-pip]

The ducks lined up for me on AUDUSD earlier this morning so I got on it and took some pips.

This morning I also took a short on AUD/USD. I jumped the gun and took the short a little before the price broke below the 5 min 60 ma. Sold at 1.0514 with a 15 pip sl and closed at 1.0469 with 45 pips. A nice quick 1:3 risk reward trade. I see the price has broken yesterdays low and I could have let the trade run, but as they say, a duck in hand is good!

[TomJoad]

hello all … a question please
I started looking at this system and find it very interesting and simple … why 60 sma and not 50?
Thanks to all …
Sorry for my english…

[Thalia]

On the 1 & 4 hour charts it doesn’t really matter which of the two medium range averages are used to be honest such is the close proximity to the price waves, but test it out on the 5 min entry chart & you receive very different variances.

I’m not sure if his use of it on that timeframe is directly or indirectly connected in any way, but two ex-bank traders (Jimmy Young being one) performed a lengthy performance test of the 60 as part of a specific entry & management strategy involving momentum bands working in step with a dual directional bias type market outlook back in the early 00’s.

There are a few crude copies doing the rounds piggybacking a similar style, but most of them tend to overcomplicate the basics by loading unnecessary filters & multiple confirmers onto the chart. At least this one doesn’t go into overkill.

Once you start to realize what the moving averages are actually encouraging you to observe & identify across the multi timeframe template you’ll begin to see why Andy keeps the charts so empty.

[TomJoad]

On the 1 & 4 hour charts it doesn’t really matter which of the two medium range averages are used to be honest such is the close proximity to the price waves, but test it out on the 5 min entry chart & you receive very different variances.

I’m not sure if his use of it on that timeframe is directly or indirectly connected in any way, but two ex-bank traders (Jimmy Young being one) performed a lengthy performance test of the 60 as part of a specific entry & management strategy involving momentum bands working in step with a dual directional bias type market outlook back in the early 00’s.

There are a few crude copies doing the rounds piggybacking a similar style, but most of them tend to overcomplicate the basics by loading unnecessary filters & multiple confirmers onto the chart. At least this one doesn’t go into overkill.

Once you start to realize what the moving averages are actually encouraging you to observe & identify across the multi timeframe template you’ll begin to see why Andy keeps the charts so empty.

Perfect! I was curious to know …
Many thanks Thalia

[d-pip]

Another nice 3-ducks set-up on AU this morning. Well more like a 2.5 ducks, I jumped the gun on the 5m and entered a bit early before the 60ma cross. A quack look at the 5m and you’ll see how I used a 123 pattern as a simple trigger. I’ve pulled my SL in to 1.0440, set a TP for ½ the order at 1.0404 the other ½ I’ll let run.