I got into that GBPUSD on Friday at 12:00 and still in it now at just over 100 pips. It looked like a good 3 Duck trade, as price was above all three 60 SMA and a new high was being made. Looking a bit flat at the moment, but my best trade at the moment as every other trade is going nowhere.
My favourite pairs USDJPY and EURJPY have let me down of late and the market generally seems to be directionless with violent swings destroying trades.
Oh for a good long, non violent trend. Regards, Trader009.
Iāve been trading using the three ducks indicator since the beginning of July. Iām a complete noob. Been learning for the last 8 months and trading a live mini account (and I do mean mini) after trading demo for 6 months before hand.
Iāve found the 3 ducks a great system for getting me on the right side of trades. I also use price action signals and volume as my discretionary extras to the system. Iām currently down by 5.6% but I donāt see that as a negative, because Iām still learning with every trade. Iāve just got a few questions/queries about the system:
When letting winners run, is there any indicator on the 5 minute candles that can tell you the current break is exhausted? Many times Iāve taken profit only to see the trade move another 30 pips (on average) in what would have been my favour. For example this screen shot shows where I added to my trade and then closed out before the market dipped further:
My next question is has anyone used this method to trade commodities? Does it only work on currencies?
The 3 ducks approach is meant to be used with your own discretionary trading methods. Iām not asking anyone to tell me their methods but what other areas of trade confirmation do people use to push the odds in their favour? Be it additional indicators, price action etc?
Finally, a few times Iāve gone against the system by opening a position before a break above the 5 minute high/low. As Iām day trading and going for a 1/1 ratio I find that getting in a little earlier means Iām more likely to hit my TP. Is it necessary to implement this part of the system to be successful?
Maybe Iām just making it my own, but whatever the case I really like this method. I WILL make it profitable. Iāve still got a lot of learning to do. Thanks in advance to anyone who is kind enough to reply,
You could try using the natural swings on the 5 minute chart to keep you in and/or take you out of day trades once youāve covered your desired minimum profit levels from entry.
For instance, on that chart example you appeared to exit on a random bearish candle without any confirmation of potential exhaustion. Had you used a combination of the pairs average daily range with the natural swing behavior you wouldnāt have considered a possible exit or partial closure option until at least 149.90 (on the 5 min timeframe) approximately 3 hours later when prices began showing signs of possible consolidation.
Youāre never going to squeeze out the maximum potential on every move it simply doesnāt work that way, but by adopting a logical, tried & tested approach to entry & exits youāll be in a position to better quantify whether it offers you a relaible or effective option.
No.
In fact experimenting & adopting alternative entry & exit options is encouraged & if you dial back through the thread one or two of the experienced contributors (DoubleEcho, odds on, laine etc) actually discuss an early entry option used by Carll, one of the traders on the Technical Templates threads, which might be something you could explore.
I use it all the time now & am very happy with the results.
thanks for the reply. I do have time to watch the trade so I will keep an eye out for the natural swings. I think what it all boils down to is my trading plan. I know (at least for the time being) how to pick my entry, set my SL and my 1/1 ratio TP, but I donāt have a plan for letting my winners run. Iām going to test the ATR method. Do you use a percentage of the ATR?
I understand this. Iām not trying to pick tops or bottoms. Iām gonna get to work on sorting the last stage of my plan.
Thatās good to know and thank you for the confirmation. With regards to the entry options discussed by DoubleEcho etcā¦ was that on page 22? They refer to using the ATR and stochastic and point you in the direction of technical templates thread?
Thanks again and Iāll let you know how I get on with finding a method for letting my winners run.
Another example of not letting my winners run happened this morning. With this trade I lowered my SL to break even once I was 20 pips in profit. I went against my plan by not setting an automatic TP 1/1 ratio. I tried to take Volanās advice and ride out the 5 minute swings. Once the price got to the previous 5 minute low I watched a few indecisive candles go by, ran out of patience and then took profit. I made just over my 1/1 goal, but the price then proceeded to drop further.
I think what I lacked in this trade was patience and a clear plan as to how to make the most out of this price move. Iāve heard it said by experienced traders time and time again but discipline and patience are the cornerstone to success in trading. Iām really starting to understand that now. I find it easier to have discipline when thereās a concrete plan to follow.
Could anyone give me a common example of how to use the ATR to come up with a TP strategy?
As Iāve finish writing this the eur/jpy has dropped another 10 pips. Itās all a huge learning curve. Thanks again to fartist and Volan for their advice so far.
No I donāt Drue, Iām just aware of each pairs average range, how much of it has been utilized prior to entry & what potential is remaining. Obviously itās only a gauge, but itās worth has been proven to me consistently enough to include as a crucial element of my pre-trade decision making.
Yes thatās the one. Itās mentioned a couple times on here & if you search for posts by Carll youāll discover the relevant discussions within the appropriate Templates thread.
As I said, it works fine for me given my particular risk appetite & trade outlook but it remains to be seen if it fits your style & requirements. Itās just an alternative option to consider.
At least youāre identifying & recognizing the elements you need to work on, thatās a big accomplishment especially so early into discovering a new approach. If youāre anything like me, then the rest will hopefully come with time, practice, familiarity & confidence.
The thing I love about this approach & the set ups is there isnāt a lot to think about or get confused over. The hardest part is waiting for a clear directional move to open up. Once that bit slots into place itās a case of waiting for the appropriate entry set up to appear & match it up with any available range & ensure adequate risk is available to make the trade worthwhile.
They discuss & advise on those important aspects of trade preparation throughout the Technical Template threads, which is why theyāre highly recommended as a parallel read to this thread.
However you choose to operate, I wish you good fortune.
thank you for your advice. I now have the ATR indicator as a preset on my charts. Iāll start learning how to use it. I also thought I could try changing my position sizing. The first trade could be 1.5% and if it goes in my favour I could add another trade with a further 1.5%. Close out my first trade at my 1/1 ratio and let the other trade run. That way if my second trade hits my SL then Iām even for the day and if it keeps running I could be up over 3%. Just an idea I was playing with. Thanks again for all your help so far. It doesnāt go unappreciated.
Boyās o boys Iām always glad to see the back of Non Farm Payrolls
The good news is ā¦ the up trend on Eur.Usd still looks decent after NFP which gets me thinking that our Ducks will be looking for the long (buying) trade set ups next week (see the chart below)
Hereās the build up ā¦ Eur.Usd trend is UP and your Ducks only favor longs (buys) on this pair at the moment when they all line up in the same direction.
Profit Targets
3 Duck Trend Traders could be targeting the 1.3350 area and above next week.
Stop-Loss for Intraday 3 Ducks Traders
Intraday stop-losses could be fixed or placed below hourly support.
Stop-Losses for Swing & Positional 3 Ducks Traders
Swing and positional traders trading Eur.Usd may prefer to have their stop-loss below the 1.3180 area on the 4 hour chart.
But ā¦ā¦
All Bullish interest is gone for me if we get a break and hold below the 1.3180 area next week.
Hopefully youāll catch a few winning trades.
Andy,
Captain Currency.
These are not trade recommendations. The 3 Ducks Trading System is best used as a set of guidelines with discretion in addition with your own market analysis and trading ideas. I do not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use or reliance on such information.
They say good trading wonāt happen by accident Duck Hunters, we gotta try and plan it.
A pair Iād be planning to put on my shortlist for next week would be Usd.Jpy (see chart below). Decent looking 4hr down trend, just what our Ducks like and an average daily pip variation in around 115 pips over the past few weeks. That 95.80 area of support is just asking to be broken; maybe it will happen next week.
These are not trade recommendations. The 3 Ducks Trading System is best used as a set of guidelines with discretion in addition with your own market analysis and trading ideas. I do not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use or reliance on such information.
Would have liked to see Usd.Jpy break below the 95.75 area earlier this week but it wasnāt to be. Big pullback on Mon & Tue put our [U]2nd Duck (1 hr) on the wrong side of the sma[/U] ā¦ Currently Iām a bit neutral on Usd.Jpy, would need to see our 2nd Duck confirming (back below the 1hr sma) and I think it really needs to get back below 97.00 before Iād get bearish on it again.
