One to pay attention to Duck Hunters: Usd.Cad and the probability of it selling down to 1.1188 in the coming days – Currently its at 1.1260.
90 pips is the average daily pip variation for this pair and on H4, our first duck only favors the selling set-ups.
A good plan might be to Sell when all your 3 Ducks line up or follow the down-swing and sell into rallies.
Target – that 1.1188 area of recent support seems realistic for hungry bears!
Safe trading Duck Hunters,
Andy
Captain Currency
If you celebrate it … Happy Thanksgiving Duck Hunters.
Just a quick Thank You to all the great traders who post on this thread, answer questions and offer guidance. Thanks a bunch guys, I’m not always around to answer questions so CHEERS for doing what you do, I’m humbled.
[B]Andy
Captain Currency[/B]
This sounds like a very interesting idea are you planning on turning this into an ea by any chance? The reason I asked because it seems like it to me that you would get quicker testing results if you automated and just measured it that way instead of flipping back and forward through time frames.
it ll not break the down line check out the H1 chart
Please take the time to properly read the thread, e-book and/or view the examples videos posted by the Captain, because it has been stated over an over again that this is a DISCRECIONARY method and it is NOT TO BE AUTOMATED!!!
Plus, there is a VERY IMPORTANT REASON for why one should view the 3 time-frames and not just one with multiple MA’s. This has also been repeatedly addressed here on this thread as well as the Captain’s e-book and videos!
Hi MT,
as stated previously, this is a discretionary trend following system. Discretionary means you can’t automate it. It still takes a lot of work and experience to get right.
I personally only trade 4 pairs and if I don’t have a set up, I don’t have a set up. Over the last 6 months my account has gone up, come back down, gone up, come back down etc… Currently, I can say that I am on a very nice up streak, but only because of the heartache and pain I went through at the beginning.
Here’s my 2 pennies worth:
I have found keeping a diary more important than the system itself and attribute my latest successes to doing a good job of this. I simply draw a (blue for long and red for short) line on my chart between the entry and the exit points of the trade (on the 4 hour and 5 min chart), take a screenshot (I have many now) and then assess whether it was a good trade; looking back, I have been surprised at how often I used poor judgement in the early days and, having learned from my mistakes, I am now starting to see my account grow (until the next downdraft).
Some of the info on here about Heikin Ashi and Fibonacci is super useful, but if you haven’t understood the concept of the 3 ducks thoroughly, and you are not yet profitable, leave them out of your decision making process for the time being. While it is true that they can help to improve your abiilty to spot a trend and identify your entries and exits, they can also cloud your judgement if you are not yet totally at ease with the 3 ducks concept.
Warning - the discretionary part of this system can get lost if you think digitally - an on/off mentality to opening trades just because the 3 ducks are lining up is going to hurt. For example, if the price dips below an upward sloping 60MA on the 4 hour chart, and it has been below the 60MA on the 1 hr and 5 min (as you would expect) for a while, you may think that, because your ducks are lined up, you should enter short. In this case, it [U]is [/U]true that the ducks line up, but their end destinations are not necessarily going to be the same. That’s one of the many reasons the system can’t be automated.
A final word - No system is perfect; no system can guarantee 100% success rate; and no system works without careful management, effort and a total understanding of how it works. Systems, once they work, look super easy, but so is riding a bike once you get the hang of it - but tell that to the 4 year old who you’re trying to teach…
I hope I have helped a little; It’s helped me get some stuff off my chest…
Steve L
PS - take note of the fact that the Captain has been on this forum since 2007 and he hasn’t been tempted yet to automate…
That’s a weak support level. A much stronger level is at 1.12333
At the risk of educating too much, target the inside of the previous swing, in general.
–just a random driveby…
Andy was focusing a legitimate & very common technical level (a prior weekly low) matched with another commonly repetitive event (a pair’s average daily range coverage).
One of the key components of this model is to constantly identify & marry up value with odds, a practice that judging by the longevity of the thread, appears to have stood not only the test of time but the rigours of the market.
Hindsight analysis/education always looks much more impressive after the event.
Perhaps from now on you could drive by & analyse the chart presentations whilst they’re still relevant.
All fantastic advice!
However, I’ll not apologize for not being a purest, as I often get the big picture by dropping into the D1 to confirm the larger trend, just before I pull the trigger. On top of that, I usually enter and exit trades in the M1 timeframe, just to wring every little pip out of the trade that I can.
Also, I am not embarrassed to admit to using more than one indicator to help me find my way through the vast FX forest.
Hi Terry,
What a great comment - I’ll bet the Captain himself has a couple of extra tricks up his sleeve that taints the purity of the way he uses the system as well. And I know how decadent I am - I don’t just use the 60 MAs (dare I say it, I use Ichimoku as well (15, 60, 60)).
It is very interesting to see your chart; I think it’s great to see how somebody else uses their discretion to enter trades based on the system - it illustrates the point of the last couple of comments perfectly:
it’s not for automation, it’s discretionary.
Cheers
Steve L
We are in agreement that s/r levels and daily range are important to consider. The level he pointed out, on my chart looks like a realtively weak daily level not a weekly level although it may have been the close of a weekly bar. Also that was only a spike down to it which I give less weight to as compared to opens and closes. So that level was not as significant in my model as the level I pointed out which on my chart is a stronger weekly level. We have different methods of picking out levels and determining their strenght or weakness. The comment that price often retraces to the inside of previous swings or to closer s/r is based on observing that happen frequently. Someone in another thread referred to percent retraces but kinda smacks of fibs which I’m not into. This pair has been trending up on the M1 for some time so I wouldn’t be looking to short it much anyway.
Drivebys happen when they happen and this is my limit of them for a while. Adios
It appears your sat nav requires re-calibrating because you seem to be driving-by the wrong thread.
The framework of Andy’s set up pivots around a [B]240/60/5minute[/B] multi-timeframe top down approach, not a 1 minute or a 1 week or even a daily view.
At the time he posted that usd/cad chart, price was printing another lower top underneath its 4 hour 60sma. He was simply alerting interested parties to begin focusing a possible (& typical) opportunity when/if the 2nd & 3rd triggers of the cycle offered a likely entry.
At the same time he suggested a very common & typical destination point to begin focusing attention on whatever trade management profile the individual prefers in the likelihood price arrived there.
Like a lot of other “casual” visitors to the thread you would do well to familiarise yourself with the very basic structure of the approach first before side tracking it with irrelevant & off topic details.
Totally agree.
And if 5 min did not line up (which it probably didn’t when the drive-by was occurring and people were getting shot at) you are highly unlikely to have opened the trade.
And if you did because the ducks did line up for a bit, it is highly likely that you would have been stopped out at the level of the 1 hr 60MA - a nicely controlled loss and a wait for the next opportunity to come along.
All of which proves the system works at its most basic level.
QED…
Gonna go long usdjpy on a break of 120.83 with a 25 pip stop and short aud.cad at a break of 0.9513 with a 20 pip stop.
What about USDJPY’s twin – EURJPY at about 148.7?
If you take a look at the EUR/USD, you will see that the USD is stronger than the EUR (currently price is below 60MA on the H4).
So with that in mind, since you are looking to go long, the USDJPY is a better choice than the EURJPY.
As The Captain has stated before, [B]trade the Strongest against the Weakest[/B]!!!
Commodity Currencies: Looking for either the selling set-ups on Aud.Usd or the buying set-ups on Usd.Cad, seems a straight forward plan for the coming day(s) Duck Hunters.
First Duck (H4) continues to favour the buying set-ups on Usd.Cad.
My thoughts … I’d love to see this pair break and hold above the 1.1500 area (yellow dotted line) in the coming session(s) and with an average daily pip variation figure of about 90 pips it would be rude if bulls didn’t go for it, c’mon the Bulls!
Andy
Captain Currency
CAD has been whipsawy on the way up and today’s price action is yet another repetition of this behavior. For now it remains above the 4hr SMA and therefore still room for your scenario to work out.
Would you be looking for trades only after the break of the resistance at c.1.1500 or even earlier, once the 1hr criss-crosses above the 60SMA and has the first two ducks aligned?
Thanks
The best laid schemes o’ mice an’ men gang aft a-gley.
So it seems that USDCAD is triggering an entry long.
240min - Price above SMA and SMA is pointing upward in a nice slope
60min - Price breaking above SMA and recent resistance
5min - A buy signal was triggered on a break above 1.1460, with close above the SMA and recent resistance
SL of 30 pips right below the recent low and a TP of 50 pips, on a test of near resistance.
Your comments pls
