I would to take this aswell but res is concern
I donât really think any are needed.
Itâs ticked your boxes, the criteria certainly stacks up & youâre facing the right way on that pair.
Good luck with it!
To be honest price is just as likely to blow straight through & continue as it is to stall & reverse at these common levels. One trick is to use a strong directional bias such as the one on usd/cad & try to identify a value entry [B][U]ahead[/U][/B] of these potentially sticky levels so youâre seated as much in advance as possible.
The advantage being youâre already positioned as the orders get worked & youâre not battling it out with all the top/bottom pickers, late trend arrivals & stop hunters.
If price hits strong bids or offers & does reject you have a bit more time to collect your thoughts & assess the playing field.
At this time of the year markets will be adjusting to & absorbing book squaring into years end & this will undoubtedly impact volumes on one or two of the more liquid instruments, especially as & when big levels (containing option contracts) come into view.
Just take a bit more care around the Xmas period & be prepared to more actively manage your targets & risk.
One trick is to use a strong directional bias such as the one on usd/cad & try to identify a value entry ahead of these potentially sticky levels so youâre seated as much in advance as possible.
Hello dancat,
Could you explain a value area entry or how you could identify one in your own personal experience or in the usd/cad example what could you do?
Cheers John
I took the USDCAD trade also, entered at 1.14588, SL of 1.14284 and no TP. Positive so far. Im gonna get them ducksâŚ
I will gladly answer your question John, but please bear in mind that if youâre sticking rigidly to the 3 Ducks parameters (price above/below all 3 timeframes) you wonât always be able to take advantage of the types of value areas Iâm referring to.
The thing I love about Andyâs model is it encourages folk to employ a disciplined structure. But as with all things good, thereâs often a degree of compromise that comes with it.
Once thread participants gain a little experience & become more comfortable & familiar with the [U]concept[/U] of what this model is imparting, they tend to develop & individualise certain elements of 3 Ducks to suit their risk profile and/or trading objectives.
One such area of development revolves around entries.
Back through the thread a couple guys (carll & I believe DoubleEcho) discuss early bird/pullback type entries where value can be identified by getting seated ahead of the usual 2nd or 3rd (60/5min) trigger entry rule.
Using your requested usd/cad enquiry as a specific example:
The current trend rotated back above the 4 hour/60sma on November 27 confirming the resumption of the bullish bias.
In order for 3 Ducks to register a set up price would need to be north of the 1 hour/60sma & also the 5 min/60sma, but during the 2 pullbacks of week commencing December 1 (at c1.1325 & 1.1360 respectively), although the 5 minute slotted into place around those levels, the 1 hour lagged.
Thatâs the compromise & type of value Iâm referring to where although the trending cycle is vsible & in motion, the specific 3 Ducks rules wonât signal an entry.
Occasionally discretion (& experience) will need to be deployed in order to take advantage of cyclical momentum thrusts keying off a clear directional move.
If that type of potential set up/entry criteria interests you I suggest you conduct a member search for carll who describes this entry option on the Technical Templates Continued thread.
It dovetails very nicely with Andyâs basic trend structure.
Thanks Dancat for putting together your response and pointing out the continuation of the trend with a great example where I can see what you mean on Nov 27th H4 shooting up breaking the Lhs and LLs and then retracing while still above the sma while the sma was also pointing up
Closed yesterdayâs USDCAD long trade for a measly +2pips this morning, since no follow-through. Enough to buy the Captain a pint or two, methinks.
Not much on the radar this morning. GBP and EUR have crossed above their 4hr SMAs, but I think they are in a pullback for now.
AUDUSD looks like a good setup on a close below 0.8280, as a continuation of the recent weakness. A bit weary that the Asian session has already completed a round trip of 60-80 pips though.
Iâll practice my discipline of sitting on my hands.
Have a good day all.
It seems that with the weakness in the CAD and strength in EUR, the EURCAD is staging a potentially nice bullish trade.
4hr and 1hr is above the SMA with a confirming sloping uptrend, with the 5min taking a breather overnight.
A close above 1.4290 would confirm continuation of the uptrend, I think. Usual 30pips SL and 50pips TP apply.
That tactic certainly paid off nicely on USDCAD again this week as it did indeed catch a strong bid today through that round number after faffing around the previous couple of days.
Interestingly it formed an hourly higher low going into todayâs trading with that 60min hook turning up at the start of the European session. I imagine that positional tactic can prevent a lot of premature shake-outs in situations such as these & itâs interesting to see similar outcomes when scrolling back through a few pairs displaying likeminded background behaviour.
I note from another thread you used to broker business for the guys who carll eventually went to work for/with. Do you know if he employed that model a lot on his account?
or werenât you not privy to that sort of information.
Reason i ask is he started from a purely retail angle before stepping up & the only model presented both here & on another forum seems to be that one.
USDCAD continued its upward march yesterday and gave a good opportunity for re-entry above 1.1475
A couple of charts that caught my interest this morning:
A last one to complete the top 3 for today.
Looks like EURUSD is continuing within its downsloping channel, after the 250pip pullback this week.
4hr is pointing down, but price is above the SMA
1hr and 5min are below the SMA.
How would Captain Currency trade this? :33:
I imagine heâd like to see 1.2350 in the rear-view mirror as a minimum.
Like I said in #1794, itâs all about identifying value ahead of potentially sticky levels.
The higher success probability will stack up when placing bets within the context of a clear cyclical move, which is why it slots in efficiently alongside something like Andyâs 3 Ducks framework.
On that âother threadâ we briefly discussed doing things that the herd donât.
You only have to witness all the traffic & bustle that plays out as orders get shuffled & dealt around big figures & common round numbers to know a lot of nervous players get unseated or fold their hands way too early.
One way of avoiding all that traffic, reducing stress & affording oneself a little elbow room is to place your bets ahead of the crowd.
Using Andyâs logical structural play & tweaking it slightly to suit your risk tolerance & objectives makes perfect sense - well it does to me anyway.
Most retailers are obsessed with lining up multiple layers of confluence/confirmation. Thatâs all very well, but it tends to cause the types of issues mentioned above.
Thatâs a pretty big opportunity you can exploit if youâre smart with your tactics!
In a market awash with scared money a (consistently successful) small edge is usually all thatâs required.
Well considering they hired him for a very specific purpose based on his live account results that would be a very resounding yes. Apparently he still operates it exclusively on his private a/c, & why wouldnât he given the consistent success heâs experienced over recent years.
He was quite aggressive with it though. Not reckless by any means, just aggressive in his positioning, pyramiding & bet management. To be honest an occasional poster on here (AltTab) knows a bit more about him/them than I do. He was their main go-to-man at Fimat (now NewEdge).
Was that post suppose to make sense on some level?
To me it seemed like you are talking gibberish that has nothing to do with trading the 3 duck system.
Well itâs perhaps thankful not everyone shares your view then.
If youâre not partial to his or anyone elseâs contribution then you have the option of sticking them on your ignore list.
I suggest you click on your user control panel & make use of that option.
Umm this isnât a casino⌠Therefore there are no bets or games. This isnât a card game either. Are you sure your in the right place?
Oh the innocent naivety of the newbie, lol.
Anyway, moving onâŚ
As far as the majors are concerned, the standout pairs are still USD/CAD & AUD/USD, both of which continue to be primed for breakout and/or pullback plays depending on your risk appetite.
Of the crosses, CAD & AUD look vulnerable v/s EURO & STERLING.
AUD is still suspect to further declines v/s CHF, KIWI remains In dominant mode v/s AUD & recent profit taking on a few of the YEN pairs will put them back on the 4 hour 60sma radar if that currency slips back v/s the USD, EURO & STERLING.
Plenty of opportunity next week to leg into one or two likely trend continuation candidates!
Here ill help you out.
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Iâm sure youâll find various card games as well as things to bet on here.
Iâd stick like glue to the main theme of the content & leave the rest of the stuff to those who actually understand whatâs being discussed if I were you cyris because youâre already beginning to embarrass yourself my lovely.
Ever since those 2 successfully edged through 1.4650 & 1.8270 respectively theyâve honored their prior dayâs low levels virtually to the pip on pullbacks, not to mention cover their ADRâs almost every session.
Letâs hope those happy little ducks continue to quack loudly in that pond up to Xmas!
As long as Stevens, Lowe & their cronies continue to talk down the currency at every opportunity itâll keep slipping & sliding!
Give those central bankers all your love for a nice Xmas bonus!!
Thereâs another opportunity to stomp all over it the next couple days with the treasury depât stepping up later today presenting its mid-year economic & fiscal outlook + the central bank rates meeting on Monday.
Letâs hope they get with the Xmas spirit & continue to talk Aussie down another notch or two. If so that 1.92 on gbp/aud will be a hot potato & 1.55 eur/aud will be well in their sights too.
It goes without saying due care needs to be afforded as profit taking & deflating volumes combine to impact daily range output, but there could well be more juice in those two before they begin to take hold if the bank send out anymore distress signals.