The Adam Theory of Markets by J. Welles Wilder Jnr

you may be bold…no problem with that :wink:

Here is a screen shot literally as we speak (well from a couple of minutes ago) showing all my Adam positions:

http://www.upl.co/uploads/trades.png

Very nice. Cannot fault you on that lot!!! That’s for sure.

Actually DAMN nice.

I’m REALLY of the opinon though (alright it’s more than just an opinion i.e. it’s backed up a bit by technicals): the stock market is going correct and very soon and maybe even today. From a technical aspect: the S&P is having ‘issues’ with 1350.00 The Dow has made THE PERFECT double top ON THE WEEKLY CHARTS (you know how strong a signal THAT is). RSI(14) is in W-A-Y overbought territory and has been for some time (a few days) on the S&P. That’s where I’m coming from. And it’s interesting to me to note that even although Greece has got a great deal of its sh*t over with: that, along with the unemployment claims (I think it was i.e. I wasn’t watching and only saw after the fact), and the ECB’s ‘stories’, caused nothing than a major spike up and the Dow is now well on its way down again.

And alright (screw ALL of the above): I’m short the Dow and the S&P 500!!! LOL!!!

Regards,

Dale.

There is a lot of fluctuating. In the last few days I’ve gone from net +460 to net -120. So, lots going on…

It really is great having directly opposite views of exactly the same picture. The dow is at big resistance, agreed. But, it is trying to get through. If there is some big economic news today or tomorrow, that could be sufficient to drive it through. Equally, a correction (albeit a small one) might be what is required so that it can continue with the rise.

With my Adam hat on, I don’t know what you are talking about with that double top thing… My 4H chart just shows a constant march onwards and upwards. Same for the SP500… :wink:

It is also worth thinking that Adam says, you WILL get it wrong at the top and bottom. That is just going to happen. As long as you get the middle bit, that should be sufficient. I don’t think the dow is going to keep rising, it is going to fall at some point. When that happens, I’ll go short.

Hi Jedster,

You’ve used Adam very well. You have provided a clear explanation about your trade which is a great help to me to understand Adam better. Thanks for sharing!

I dunno … I think sometime around 1992 or so. :smiley:

O.

lol, I know that song.

Oh well, if you’ve re-entered right away, nothing’s lost.
Even on a live account you’d have lost the spread only … few bucks won’t kill you.

O.

Yeah, concur.

That’s a bit odd…just received an email notification about a new post, but there is nothing here.

Any ideas?

Happens all the time … delayed delivery of the notification mail.
I sometimes get mails notifying me of my own three-hours-old posts. :slight_smile:

I’ve taken to actually reading the notification mails, to pre-check the post they refer to.

O.

Yeh. It was me.

I tried to upload one of my charts from Delta Trading but it doesn’t matter whether I upload the actual file here or reference it from an external url: for some reason or the other BabyPips just doesn’t ‘like’ my charts and it’s really odd. I mean: on my forums they display clearly and cleanly and appear exactly as they do on my PCs locally. I’ve always had this issue here. This morning I even thought to FIRST use Adobe PhotoShop, create the highest quality .JPEG I could from an uncompressed bitmap (chart) but same thing. The image is just not ‘sharp’ and looks ‘dirty and washed out’.

But basically it was just a chart of the Dow with an ‘Ahem…’ and an inane comment that Adam (as you noted) obviously doesn’t recognise double tops etc. because the Dow is falling real nice now. I guess I just wanted to ‘take the pi*s’ really (sort of ‘tongue in cheek’). You know. Just for fun. That’s what the post was about anyway.

Regards,

Dale.

Edit:

Sorry: I meant to say ‘it was me’ and I’d deleted the post out of sheer frustration. That’s why you received a notification but no post when you looked.

The above being said though: YESTERDAY I received SIX INSTANT EMAIL NOTIFICATIONS AT ONCE for ONE post that Oliver1968 had posted here!!!

I can see that :wink:

When I upload pictures to Upl.co | Your 1-click Upload and Sharing Platform for Images, Videos, Music, and More, it gives me a “tagged” link for the image to be posted into a forum. The babypips forum is obviously getting that image and doing the conversion with a set amount of compression. It doesn’t appear to matter what format of the original image is, including a jpg, it just applies the compression regardless.

I need to post about my trades. I have some interesting (relatively) observations about them…

That’s because it was an extra-important post … lmao.

Haha, lol, I just cracked up myself. I love when that happens. :smiley:

O.

Yeah, the forum engine is quite old, as you can see from many missing features … but it does its job, so all is good.
(The best is the attachment manager: it allows only 2MB for a graphic, but 20MB for a PDF. :smiley:
And images are limited to 700x700 … which accounts for the ‘fuzziness’ of larger graphics, Dale. Upload your charts to imgur or a similar service and link them up; that will solve your issue.)

I already tried that (uploading to another site i.e. one of mine which should make no difference).

MAYBE it’s the size??? My charts are just SLIGHTLY bigger than 700x700. Maybe I’ll give it a bash just for fun.


Yeh. Alright. It’s the size that’s causing the problem.

Thanks.

Regards,

Dale.

Anyway, so the status of my Adam trades…not good.

Last night it was looking great. I moved stops up on a couple and even added to two positions because new highs in the trend were being made.

The AJ is a good example (of where it has gone wrong).

Here is the chart:

http://www.upl.co/uploads/AJ-trade.png

Original entry I thought looked good, trading off the 4H chart I entered at 19:28 on 7th Feb(european time). There was a previous high marked as resistance that I needed the price to get through. It did, so I entered the first trade. SL was positioned under the most recent swing low giving it about 130 pips of breathing space.

Price hung around for a few hours, a new peak was made and then it came back down and it looked like the previous resistance was now classically providing support. Price then went higher over the course of the next day (yesterday) and eventually formed a new high. I figured a breakout was occuring (clue 1), so I redid the projection and it looked great.

As a result, I then took the second trade. I set the SL to the point of the resistance, and also brought up the SL from the original trade to break even.

Perfect I thought, and then went to bed…

…this morning, not good. A fall overnight took out the stops this morning.

So, what went wrong. Well, firstly, a bit of a novice mistake but, I put my stops ON the point of support, rather than below it. Had I been 20 pips below the support, both trades would still be ok.

Secondly, I think I was too impatient and moved too quickly. It was only a very small high that had been made. As I look at the examples in the book, (and I know that is the daily chart), but price moved substantially. He didn’t adjust after every small little retracement. He didn’t add to the position until it was already well into profit and the price had moved substantially.

Finally, when I look at my set of trades, they are all very highly correlated.
I have AUDJPY, GBPJPY, EURJPY. So triple exposure to the yen.
I have the AUDUSD, NZDUSD, EURUSD, USDCAD. So, any change in oil, gold or USD is going to affect all those trades.
And then I have both the dow and the S&P, which is like having double the risk to the same thing!

I think I should have limited myself to ONE trade from each of those three groups, thus limiting my exposure.

So, with the rest of the trades that I still have open, I will be more patient to wait for them to move…

Hello.

Thanks for posting and especially with all of that detail.

ONE of us is not ‘getting’ Adam. And I’m not sure if it’s you or me!!! LOL!!!

Alright: I cannot see what the Second Reflection chart was showing at the time of your opening those trades but I’m almost sure I would have traded it (Adam) differently and still be in the (a) long trade. I’m afraid we’re going to have to wait until I get a signal that I’m happy with so that I too can post an actual trade then we can compare notes as it were.

I think you’ve proved one thing though for sure: the placement of HOW FAR the stops are from the swing lows (or highs) are PARAMOUNT with Adam. That’s why I was suggesting volatility based stops as opposed to fixed stops (so my using the same stop loss methodology as I use on the Swing Index System may also not work BUT then I ALSO have to wonder ‘why not’ because it’s still a swing low or swing high)??? Anyway: you could even use stops as wide as 3 x ATR(14)!!! That might SOUND ridiculous but I know of more than one trading system that uses stops that wide (on the daily time frames). And then there’s also my ‘usual argument’ i.e. the daily time frames as opposed to any other time frames???

One thing I’m not happy with is the method detailed to add to positions i.e. where each new position has its OWN stop. I cannot agree with that. That’s ONE method FOR SURE I’m not going to follow (and don’t with any other trading system). My adding to positions would entail adding to an ALREADY profitable position with ONE LESS the number of contracts (or lots or units or whatever you want to call them or depending on what you’re trading) as the original position and the stop in place would be for ALL of those now open contracts. It makes no sense to me to have stops linked to newly opened positions. Think of the logic. Fine if things go your way. But if they DO NOT go your way: what WAS a profitable (initial) trade could very well become a LESS profitable trade than it was originally and essentially would WORSEN your initial entry price (in other words your initial entry price on the first trade would be averaged up or averaged down NOT in your favour but against you). I hope I’m making sense here.

On a personal note: you seem to ‘suffer’ the same ‘I need a million positions open at a time’ syndrome as I did!!! LOL!!! There were times where I was either short or long every single stock index as was possible ALL of which are HIGHLY correlated. I’ve discovered though: far better to have only one or two HUGE trades open on only one or two instruments than a whole bunch of smaller trades. It’s easier to manage, less stressful, and frankly pays off better. Just yesterday I closed out my S&P 500 short at a little better than break even. Why??? All it was doing was ‘hogging’ margin. In other words: that same amount of margin could have been WAY better used to add another position to my Dow trade. In other words: the Dow is the ‘better bang for buck’.

Do yourself a favour and take a look at Wilder’s ‘Commodity Selection Index’ in ‘New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems’. THAT is ‘food for thought’ and something that really is missing from most trading plans.

Regards,

Dale.

The chart you’ve attached to post #374 looks perfect, not fuzzy at all.

O.

Yeh I know. Beautiful isn’t it!!! LOL!!

You were right: it’s the resizing that BabyPips does that causes the ‘clouding’ (for want of a better word). My forums work differently i.e. nothing is ‘constrained’ within the forum software itself so if a graphic is bigger than your display it will show the entire picture but then you have use your browser’s scrollbars to move around the graphic if it’s too big. I’m not sure which is worse to be honest. There used to be some idiot here some years ago that posted charts that were HUGE so the end result was that when you were scrolling through the thread the whole of BabyPips would ‘expand’ for that particular post (and we even had a few DAYS worth of altercations about it when I asked the guy to PLEASE post smaller charts)!!! So I guess THIS method here, for BabyPips, is better. My forums only display the thumbnail so even if the graphic is bigger than your display size it doesn’t affect the appearance of the post but opens the (full size) graphic in a separate window. Both methods work fine I guess. I just don’t like the fact that if my charts happen to be 701 x 701 they get re-compressed to a .JPG file which results in a loss of colour information (here that is).

Anyway: pleased we got THAT issue sorted out!!! LOL!!!

Regards,

Dale.

I swear: if I could ‘Like’ that post SIX TIMES I would!!! LOL!!!

Regards,

Dale.

Yes, that is definitely possible. I am completely open to admitting that it could be either one of us… Not sure we’ll know for a little while yet until some trades come through (or consistently don’t)…

It is fair to say that I didn’t calculate a precise amount to risk for that 2nd trade. I was a bit blasé and just went for the same lot size. At that point I was thinking “hey, this is great, I can’t lose”. So, emotions taking over, and this is on a demo account! (I did say I try to trade demo just like a live account).

However, the stops for the two trades were identical. When I opened the 2nd, I moved up the stop from the first. So, in my head, by having the stop at the same place, I am effectively just adding to the existing trade.

I looked at the 5M chart of the AUDUSD since midnight and it would have been absolutely perfect to trade with exactly the same rules from Adam. I even did the projections and they looked good. Adding to the positions, etc.

I’ll keep working on you to look at other timeframes, I might eventually get somewhere… :wink:

Yes, I do seem to suffer from that. I need to deviate onto some other currencies, but then the spreads really widen…

Now that is very good timing. I literally just received a phone call saying the book was ready to pickup. I will go and get it this afternoon…