Well a BIG hello there.
I, like you (from what I gather anyway), are sceptical when it comes to stuff like this. And to be honest: I did exactly the same thing with The Delta Phenomenon. I honestly thought that ‘the old man’ had FINALLY ‘lost it’ (and believe me: I believe that this business can quite easily cause somebody to ‘lose it’ i.e. I think I myself have been ‘on the brink’ on more than one occasion)!!! LOL!!! My first thought was that this could not be the writings of the same person who wrote ‘New Concepts In Technical Trading Systems’ to be honest. Now and then I’ve sort of ‘dusted it off’ (The Delta Phenomenon) and had a quick ‘squiz’ through it but honestly: it’s ‘over my head’. Either that or I just have not given it a chance because of my preconceived ideas about this type of stuff. And then, for no explicable reason, possible other than the fact that I’d just ‘screwed up badly’ on a trade the day before (on a Friday), I thought ‘let me see what’s in his other books’. Enter ‘The Adam Theory of Markets’. At first: I skipped all of the ‘Adam stuff’ (the charts etc.) but, as I say, maybe because of the situation I’d landed myself up in the day before, the words of the book almost LITERALLY ‘jumped out at me’. One would think that after almost six years at this ‘lark’: you’d know all of these things. And the sad part is: YOU DO. But as he (and even I MYSELF have noted): if you don’t follow your trading system, and you don’t use stops, and basically if you break any single one of those ten rules outlined in the book, there WILL come that ONE (MAYBE a second) trade that will ‘finish you off’. Alright, and thank GOODNESS for this book, I managed to avert disaster on the Monday. But it was ‘close’. Basically: I was sitting on a MANAGEABLE loss on a trade (although it was way more than 2% or even 5%) and ‘toying’ with the idea of just ‘letting it ride’ (not to mention the fact that I SHOULD have already stopped and reversed WAY before I was in the situation at an even smaller loss). And that Saturday, on page 65, these words ‘spoke’ to me: “There is only one unforgivable sin in trading … letting a small loss turn into a large loss”. The fate of that trade was ‘sealed’ then and there before the open on Monday. The market opened on Monday, gapped more against me, and I closed out the position. I can tell you that had I not done that: I’d have NOTHING today AGAIN. It was the Spanish IBEX. Not ONLY is it an index that I shouldn’t have been trading ANYWAY given my capital but I broke just about every one of those then rules. And the worst part: to this day I cannot tell why. Everything has been ‘smooth’ for MONTHS on end. And one day, as I say for NO GOOD REASON AT ALL, I went and did just about everything wrong and totally opposite to what I myself have ‘preached’ on these forums for at least the past two or three years. And THAT is a ‘harder pill to swallow’ than actually losing money. You feel like you’ve let yourself down as well as those that you’ve tried to help with trading!!! What I’m saying is that even if you EXCLUDE ‘Adam Theory’: this book is PRICELESS. Yes I know: we’ve ALL read ‘the golden rules’ in every different way, shape, or form. But I don’t know: the ‘timing’ of me finding this book, the fact that I’m definitely ‘Wilder biased’, or maybe just the ‘no nonsense and no fluff’ approach that he has when explaining things, is what ‘did it for me’. Put another way: ‘New Concepts In Technical Trading Systems’ is what my entire trading career has been based on for the most part. ‘The Adam Theory of Markets’ is now my ‘insurance’. And I’ve not even GOTTEN to ‘Adam’ yet!!! LOL!!!
Then I started thinking: I’ve based (as I noted) my entire trading career on ‘New Concepts in Technical Trading System’ (mostly Wilder’s Swing Index System) so WHY should I doubt ‘the old man’ NOW??? So this past weekend I started looking at ‘Adam’. This is not a stupid man especially when is comes to money??? As a matter of fact: I think that the man is total genius (just take a look at his Swing Index System and his thought processes and you’ll see what I mean if you haven’t done so already). What’s more: he’s not going to simply ‘cough up’ a million dollars to patent or copyright something on a ‘whim’. So I started taking a look at it seriously. I have to be honest: it’s a lot ‘simpler’ than The Delta Phenomenon so maybe THAT’S why I got interested I guess. At least I can ‘get my mind around Adam’. So I ‘solved Adam’ (the word ‘solved’ comes from ‘solving’ Delta I guess) for this coming week on Sunday afternoon (11/12/2011) before the market opened (for EUR/USD would you believe and THAT only because I found a ‘no deposit $20 bonus’ account on offer at some or the other broker and it was useless to me for anything else i.e. no indices and a minimum stop distance of 20 pips from the current market price and really it was just free money so ‘what the hell’ right). Well I’ve attached the chart that I solved ON LAST SUNDAY. Please DO note: the DATE that I indicated on this chart is WRONG i.e. it SHOULD have been 09/12/2011 but I typed in 09/11/2011 but I don’t want to tamper with it lest I get accused of ‘curve fitting’ or ‘bullshi*ting’ about this stuff. What’s more: I ensured that I sent a copy of this same chart to a very trusted and respected member of these forums via email just as a ‘backup’. Now remember that I ‘solved Adam’ on this past Sunday morning BEFORE the market open. When I awoke on Monday morning I just went short at market at whatever the price was at the time (I didn’t even bother to look). It wasn’t my money lets face it. Placed my stop as per ‘Adam’ and have let it run. Well: I don’t know what to say. You tell me. ‘Beginners Adam Luck’??? I cannot say. All I know is that EUR/USD has been falling every since almost in a straight line. What’s more: it’s dropped faster than ‘Adam’ predicted. THIS morning (15/12/2011) I ‘solved Adam’ based on yesterdays close. So far as I can tell: EUR/USD, if there is even the SLIGHTEST merit to ‘Adam Theory’, has a LONG way to go down still. So: I’m just leaving the position until I get the ‘market reaction’ which, according to ‘Adam Theory’, is when I’ll move my stop.
Today I also ‘solved Adam’ for Gold and the Dow. According to those charts: Gold is going down a lot further from its current price (in spite of a bit of bounce today). The Dow has a few days to go down and then, it would appear, will, in the coming weeks, and months, quite possibly ‘make it’ to 14 000???
As I said: ‘Beginners Adam Theory Luck’??? Co-incidence??? I don’t have that answer. It’s WAY too soon to tell and I’m certainly not basing any REAL trading decisions (or REAL money) on it at this time. But I’m going to stick with it and keep ‘solving Adam’ for a while. If it keeps ‘panning out’: it’s not so much that I want to actually ‘trade’ ‘Adam’ as such. I’m just trying to see if it will give me an ‘extra edge’ is all. In other words: if, according to ‘Adam’, the most PROBABLE direction of any instrument is up, then I’m only going to take long trades with his Swing Index System (as opposed to stopping and reversing and getting my ‘ar*e’ whipsawed off before the trend resumes or reverses).
Alright: the attached charts are not too ‘neat and tidy’. For one thing: I’ve not managed to figure out how to put the Y-Axis on the charts so I don’t have the prices showing. The red lines are simple lines that I’ve drawn on the charts so that once I’ve create the ‘Second Reflection’ chart I can use those lines to ‘align’ the ‘Second Reflection’ chart correctly. On the charts: the GREEN bars represent the REAL market and the YELLOW bars represent the ‘Second Reflection’.
I’m just going to attach here the charts for EUR/USD (daily). The one ‘solved’ on Sunday (11/12/2011) and the one ‘solved’ this morning (15/12/2011). Make of them what you will. ‘Mumbo Jumbo’ or ‘flaky’??? Time will tell.
All I’m doing (by the way) is saving the charts (after drawing my reference lines), calling them up in Paintbrush, ‘cropping them’, and then ‘flipping’ the ‘Second Reflection’ both horizontally and then vertically, and then aligning them together into a new complete image. To be honest: I personally think that doing it manually (Wilder’s way) would be simpler (believe it or not). Problem: I’ve not even SEEN graph PAPER on sale here for YEARS!!! LOL!!!
All I can say is this: ‘Adam’ or not. I stand by the title of my thread: this book WILL, if you keep it beside you and treat it as ‘gospel’, it WILL ensure that you don’t EVER ‘take that ONE chance’, that will ‘finish you off’.
Any thoughts or input would be appreciated. ACTUALLY: I should be posting about this on my OWN forums i.e. it’s no wonder it’s so ‘lonely’ over there because I’m STILL always posting HERE!!! LOL!!!
If there is ANYTHING to ‘Adam theory’ though: I pity anybody that’s ‘holding and hoping’ long positions on Gold!!! LOL!!!
Regards,
Dale.
Edit:
Alright: I included the daily chart of Gold ‘just for fun’ (‘solved’ today i.e. 15/12/2011).
Also: I’ve ‘WinZipped’ them i.e. for some reason they just ‘appeared’ right in the middle of my post even although I’d only ‘attached’ them and not used the ‘Image’ option and they were not showing up nice and clearly or easy to read.
Also take a look at this thread:
http://forums.babypips.com/free-forex-trading-systems/41887-parabolic-sar-strategy-potential-100-pips-per-month-5.html#post301962
I know it’s a bit of a ‘cross post’ and quite a lot of my posts are off the topic of ‘Adam Theory’ but read them anyway (especially the last paragraph of my last LONG post on that thread). Just for some extra information.
Adam Charts.zip (63.6 KB)
Wilder may be a smart guy but when he gets into astrology then that’s just too flaky for me.