Is the time of the dollar rout finally over??? Why is the dollar rallying when it should be tanking, and why is it doing so fairly across the board??
The elections maybe??
When the current administration took office seven years ago we had a nice surplus. Page forward and we have huge deficits, this was planned from the very beginning to drive down the value of the dollar in line with the same
�Reaganomics� (trickledown) of the 80�s and early 90�s. I had very wealthy clients who immediately upon Bush�s election confirmation began shifting all [U]ALL[/U] of their assets out of the dollar and into the Euro and Gold. They cited what?? That the new administration was going to drive down the strong dollar�even then it was common knowledge!
So�
Is the dollar poised to rally long and hard because the current Republican front-runner is a firm believer of a balanced budget and of course the Democrats are as well?? Remember, when Clinton took office we had a balanced within a very short time. Could this be part of /most of, the reason that the Far right is so scared of McCain??
(he’s old school, fiscal responsibility conservative)
Bottom line IMO if McCain gets the nod look to go long on the Dollar as we may have a long rally ahead of us�
I say this [U]not as a political statement [/U]but only as a key reason for a potential major trend reversal…
J.
and then there were two…well one…
I am going to begin trading with a long term Dollar Long bias based on this news…
J.
:eek:
Interesting commentary Jimbo - I wanted to point out though that with the fed expected to lower rates by another 50bp in the coming months the gap will be widening between US and Eurozone rates - this can’t be good for the USD.
If rates get down to 1% the USD will become a de facto currency to fund carry trades…
[B][U]If[/U][/B] rates get down to 1% the USD will become a de facto currency to fund carry trades…
Not so sure the US economy is in the state of free fall that the market seems to have priced in…
As The US’s economy goes so goes Japan (export economy like the big “C”)…therefore would not Japan remain the Carry currency of choice?? I do think that were only on the tip-o-iceberg in regards to the Real Estate bust internationally. (getting off topic a bit) but real estate is going to continue down and were only just starting to see it across the pond. Stagflation coupled with a real estate bubble…??
Bottom line is [U][B]IMO[/B][/U] EU has a lot farther to fall than the the US and that sudden stop at the bottom is going to feel just awful…
I actually hope I’m wrong…Just call me Little Chick’in
Let’s see what Retail Sales tells us this Wednesday - might do alot to confirm or refute whether we are in a recession here stateside…
Yeah…
Yeah�
We saw some of the �fizz� go out of the $ today and I got stopped out on my OZ to $ trade (still managed to make some decent pips on my first trade but it took about 30% off) I had a nice 45 pip profit on friday close but decided to stay in…when I [U]knew[/U] there was a G7 meeting…blew off another of my ten commandments!!! (avoid news days)
The EU folks don�t know what they want to do well to be honest I don�t think anyone knows what to do! With high inflation and slowing economies frankly, I think their scared and running around in circles like my cat when I�d turn on the vacuum cleaner…
I�m back on the fence until I see anything that looks like trade showing up. The GDP/$ sure showed some bear-ish-ness today but when I look at the chart compared to the inflationary news and housing that came out I�m not so sure I want to dive in�sent my stuff into Oanda so I�ll B live this week�