I have been recently sharing my GBPUSD analysis on other platforms but I thought why not share here as well, it may be of value to some…
Anyway for the start of this week I have a short bias on the pair but not until a pull back has happened. If the low gets taken out the there is a possibility for price to drop in to the 4hr Demand and react from there.
I would like to see price return to the supply zone areas and from there I would look to short but only from lower timeframe trend analysis.
Also there is room to take short term buying when the pull back starts.
All I ever do is watch and wait for price to get in to the areas that I have marked out then trade my plan.
This is clearly currently a bearish pair on D1 and ranging on W1. A short on the heels of a rally this week should be a short-term winner but not a long-term hold. A rally in the first half of the week to follow the last three consecutive days with lower highs and lower lows should be expected.
What would cancel the bearish view? For me, a daily close above 1.3914 (swing high of 14/09).
The higher 4hr Supply Zone being broken for me would cancel bearish view - but I take my trades down on the Lower TF so only react to what zones are created, this is defo a bearish market but for me I also trade the corrections so will buy to sell.
Yesterday the Demand zone showed very little of holding which is fine as I never take trades directly from HTF zones on HTF’s.
I always wait for the reaction in those areas.
As the 4hr Demand was broken and looking to the left I had a few lower down zones based off the 1hr.
But first was to catch the continuation of the bearish movement what presented itself perfectly based off my trading plan.
I have the area circled as to where I took the trade and will drop down to 5m Image and in there explain why.
I did not take this but I did take a sell down to the 1hr demand after the 1hr structure was violated and trade executed on the correction based off my rules.
Then the initial reaction from the 1hr Demand was powerful, sure there would have been people going long from here to take swing trades maybe?
However I never got an entry based off my rules - could have taken a risk entry and used the top of demand as entry and bottom as stop but experience doing this does not always given great results.
News came and then price action went a bit crazy but still only reacted to previous levels
Price never dropped the way I hoped and I have marked out the two areas where I scaled in to takes trades.
Unfortunately I got burned on the first trade and when I look back there was never real confirmation to take the trade… I didnt even follow my own rules and tried to catch an early move. Own fault silly me.
Friday 24th 4hr View
4hr view is easier for me today plus its Friday so who wants to work?
new HH created (for my trading style) if the low gets broken then we could be trending down - or no pullback below the 50% of the push up and a straight run right up to Supply then a reaction… who knows who cares?
Great entry - Moved to BE at first Structure break and also took 50% of profits and then taken out only for price to hit target of the 50% from the higher time frame push.
It wasn’t a loss, it wasn’t a win but it was something. Friday done and the week done.
Thank you, you too!
