Predictability, for lack of a better word, and for arguments sake. Or maybe not to use words they cloud meaning.
What I see is to go short too, lined-up for this week or nexx.
1302528410-clip-23kb.png clip :d1 TF
1302528252-clip-22kb.png clip :h4 TF
[1302528813-clip-15kb.png]Clip2Net - mac screen capture, linux and windows screen capture](Clip2Net — screen capture tool for Windows, Android, iPad, Mac, Linux) clip
:37:still cannot figure out how to post charts! gif 24kb
So your are saying from your charts that we are in a retracement and the down trend will continue ? The Max system say that too,we will have a down move of at least 50 pips soon. Anyway COT for non noncomercial traders value is very high for long positions (above 99,000) so a big reversal is about to come. The question is: when ?
aguy I’m missing some point on your idea. if you open 100 trades you can’t open them all at exactly the same time and same price unless you have a EA because you cant click your mouse that fast. So I guess the 100 orders are opened with some time between each one? I am trying to understand how 100 small orders can be any different from just one big order if they are all on the same forex pair. That’s why I suggested putting trades on lots of different forex pairs because some would be in profit and some would be in loss but that wouild fluctuate around some medain line / account balance. There are some that are not correlated. Can’t think of them right off hand but you can google searc to find the correlations.
I too am trying to grasp what aguy is doing. from what I gather in charts in graphs…
So its a Grid method spreading your risk out based on stochs at a lower TF and ending the day out by taking profit on trades with the longer term trend (say m15 to h1) then finding the least possible loss on the losers.
But if you get a 300 pip move like on CPI or NFP then what? but then again those are rare occurrences.
I see where aguy is going and it looks reasonable but not something you can do with an american broker thats for sure. I actually have been working on something similar but cant get the lots low enough.
you can use Oanda, they allow any size lot. Even just one unit of base currency.
wild days like NFP. You know exactly when it’s going to happen and just stay on the sidelines and not trade that day. Actually I don’t trade that whole week usually.
Depends on the broker.
Oanda and IBFX will both let you trade nano pips, with Oanda letting you trade even smaller increments.
Money management is the most crucial part of trading a system like this.
Small consistent banking of profit can pay off.
TalonD,
Pigsinablanket
Why don’t you just simply ask instead of guessing ?
Only 1M TF, intraday trading. It’s a pure mechanical system so don’t need much knowledge about technical indicators, though now I feel some need to employ ones.
I use several methods to plant orders. The basics one, and where all come from , is indeed a grid method, two hedged positions with each order having a tight SL. Orders are placed every minute. This system (which is very dumb) has the propriety that can survive after two or three medium trend reversals (30-40 pips) and can produce huge wins at the fourth trend if it is strong (any direction of trend), because at that time there will be a large number of acumulated orders. The problem is that you have to be very fast when closing them because a small reversal is fatale. If you are lucky and having 1 hour of low volatility range followed by a medium trend, the win can be more then 300% in shortly after trend begins (hunting for London open, no ?).
At the question what is the difference between one big order and 100 orders here is the answer: with one big order you go fast down if the price goes against. With many small orders whereever price goes if it trends there will be a profit. If price reverses there will be a period of losses, then the system adjusts itself and will be winer again, unlike one single non movable order. The only fail of this system occurs in ranging markets.
This system can be reversed by having SL=0 and TP tight. It will work excelent on ranging markets.
Then it comes the combination of these two systems, and switching between them based on ADX or manually. It outputs graphics like those in attachements. It is very powerful, but I don’t know yet how it works and why. There is a whole theory of how to switch between them , because you practically use the same system of orders in two different environments : trending vs ranging , at a click of the mouse.
Then there are some others methods more complicated but more directional trend oriented. Only sells and only buys yesterday on the last two graphs in attachements (remember that only maximums count).
If I find a consistent way for wining I will make them all open source. The secret is trying to mantain an equilibrum of equity around the balance (don’t concentrate on wining, concentrate on the method - isn’t that a lessson learnt in babypips school ?). If you do that you will have maximums and minimums.
As regards brokers, I use a 200 Euro microaccount of 1:500 leverage (I know - a true killer), minumum order size and/or multiple of 0.01.
P.S. : TalonD, actually there is a method to open almost instantly 100 orders at almost the same price and time (maximum 5 seconds I’d say, and if the market is non volatile chances are for them to have the same price), but it is not in my intention to do that. If you want to use that for inter-pairs divergence (arbitrage), forget that, the divergence never covers the spread and it lasts very short. But from your post it seems it is not your intention.
1:500 leverage won’t hurt you trading 0.01 lots. On a 200 euro account, you’re still basically unleveraged. Trading too many of them however, can be dangerous. Keep an eye on the “margin level” percentage. Try to keep it at around 600-800%.
Frankly I’m suprised EU has not played by ‘my rules’ (probability of a reversal off the weekly high) by now… LOL. I’d have thought price would have retraced more than it did from Sunday open (currently -20), But G/U now at +136 and G/J at +371 points and with E/J and U/Nok… combined total is +1,355 points from Sunday open.
Carter,
Well, for short term trading it was enough down move when you said that. I managed to win 100 (50%) euros based on what you said, but remember the second cloud that made -25 % profit then ? I have let it run and now it is in profit 50 %. I expect tomorrow it will be again on minus, and so on. That’s the beauty of statistics.
So in a ranging market you suggest a zero stop loss and a trending market a tight Stop loss. And with a trending market a tight stop with a larger TP. The difference being when does the market change? And how do you decide to close out trades and not leave them hanging. I did some experimentation with the Jurich MA a while back using the slope to check for trend. Hull does the same thing. may want look into that for a switch. I have a commercial trend indicator also that may help. Called Ultra trend. Been experimenting with it as well.
This is what is bottering me right now. I can’t find a method to be more precise when switching the system, so I let it do it almost random
I don’t close any order when I switch the system. I only transform orders via modify. For example I modify all the SL from a tight one (former trend) to 0 (a new ranging market) and the TP from 0 to very small. This is one method. There are others, but the ideea is to keep the entire system of orders which is supposed to be at maturity (meaning many orders and well distributed). It would be a pitty to close them all because they have big potential. It only needs to do some modifies. Now see the power of this approach ? Fast moving from one directon to other.
An example of a cloud of orders at maturity in the graphic.
I have a book on fractals and how they related to the markets. I need to read it.
Quite frankly I’m surprised the euro isn’t down around 1.20 yet.
I think someone big left a lot of money way up high, and is trying to get it back…
Fractals look great in hindsight. Live trading will break through and set a new higher/ lower fractal.
Not one to base a srtat on in isolation. 
Looking at the market from a fractal perspective, is a lot different than throwing the Williams Fractal indi on.
Fractal views explain why a 1 minute time frame really doesn’t look much different from a monthly time frame from a clean chart perspective.
RC, your whole view of the bounce in the tunnel is actually playing fractals without knowing it. The good thing is, you don’t need Mr William’s BS to put you into a trade:D
LOL… go figure? I shorted EU, GU and GJ amongst others. All went short save EU? I’d like to say in 10 or 20 years I’d have figured this out. But don’t think ‘he who must be obeyed’ has factored in that long… LOL.
Ain’t that the truth:D
I think the selloff on the euro has quietly begun. It’s just not getting transferred into USD. Take a look at 'ole Frank.
He’s beating on the bottom of the barrel, trying to knock a hole it:D
I’d say long to the end of the week and maybe next week.
This seems like rubbish to me.
