I’ve been gone on a bodacious vacation in the Philippines for the past 3 weeks and haven’t even looked at a chart until now!
While it was fun checking out the real waves at the beautiful beaches of Boracay and Palawan, I’m totally stoked to get back in to the Pip waves to catch awesome moves!
I will resume posting this coming Monday, Feb. 25th. Until then, I’m going to take a few more days to chillax and prepare my brain to do some serious trading.
I also wanted to give props to all of you who have been staying faithful to the system and adapting it to your own personal style. That was my whole intention of sharing the system. I love reading posts, good and bad, because it shows me that you take a great interest in your trading career. Cowabunga dudes! Keep on sharing with each other. Try new things (on demo first of course!). Get better and better and better!
So like I’m totally ranting but I’m so excited to be back and I hope you’re just as anxious as me to get started up again. Until Monday dudes and dudettes!
I, too, am finished posting on this aspect of Cowabunga. I do not trade on the 15-minute. Rather, I trend-trade the daily, with trend vetting on the weekly, and I depend heavily on the ADX and also on moving averages, the Ichimoku, Bollinger Bands, and–for divergences only–MACDH. I often run Fibonacci Expansions as price targets. After an overlapping wave, I may also exit on an ADX turndown or a moving average crossover. I don’t usually use Fib Retracements, including extensions, as they are more of a range-trading tool, at least in my mind. I just wanted to raise the issue of using a logic-derived target such as a Fib Extension, with the Cowabunga method.
I was not able to apply a Fib Expansion to the present bull move because it did not make an A-B pattern so that I could estimate C. I do not understand the logic behind using a Fib extension to 138.2 unless, of course, you find that it often works for whatever reason. If I saw such a steep bull run on a daily chart, I would be inclined to exit at the first sign of exhaustion, such as an Evening Star or an ADX turndown, particularly if the the bull move faltered with an overlapping wave.
Just off the top of my head, if one were to use a Fib extension as a price target, it would seem that more traders would be watching the 200 level, which might cause the prophecy to be self-fulfilling. And, as it turned out, price did hit that level.
I do believe, based on my brief look, that the Cowabunga might benefit from using some kind of logic to set the price target. When price is moving in your direction it is more likely to continue than to stop, so why exit the trend unnecessarily?
Hello I just finished looking over your blog and found the Cowabunga system interesting. I wish to try it out.
Looking at he charts it appears we got a short signal off the 15m chart, however it was near the close of the day and so no trade was initiated. Now 4h chart is in overbought area and rsi is turning but ma’s still show a lot of daylight. (Spread out) The 5 is acting as strong support of price indicating caution.
Here is my question. Since the 4h has not yet rolled over would you take a short signal off the 15?
If the 4hr trend is still long (MAs still crossed long, regardless of other indicator readings) then only long trades are taken off the 15min entry setups.
Trend change on the 4hr occurs when the MAs cross in the opposite direction (on close, not during the candle/bar)…as long as the other indicators are in support - it is very rare not to see the RSI and stoch supporting 4hr MA crosses. In the last 12 months or so, i can only remember one instance, where they haven’t.
I haven’t traded cowabunga for a while (been busy forward testing other stuff), but I re-traded Feb to date last night (as per PipSurfer’s rules, not my fib target variant) and it has been a good month so far:
Pips: +314
Win rate: 65%
Winning trades: 13
Losing trades: 7
Average winner: 38
Average loser: 26
Average initial stoploss: 37
Max consecutive drawdown: 53
I will also be live trading this again from next week and throughout March. It continues to perform well and copes with ranging periods…if you choose to trade all signals generated.
Cowaboi;39835, I see what your saying. I did a look over or study last night and the 4h does have a double bottom look to it. I guess confirmation would be a clean break from last swing high. It also has put in a slightly higher high. So It making me think a possible swing long could be in the card if price confirms upside move?
Here is my swing perspective. Weekly uptrend in tact with slight support around 1.9360. Also notice a slight breach of the downtrend line. EMA’s are in sell mode… STO is in oversold mode. RSI is under 50 but does show a slight bullish divergence.
Possible upside resistance around 1.9948 2.0102 2.0496
Daily shows a breach of main bear line and might have hit temp resistance as per last swing high. A bullish bounce over resistance could indicate it wants to go higher. Resistance tgt @ 1.9948. Then again should it not hold here possible test of the main bear line. EMA’s indicate watch for change to proper order of 10 under the 5. We shall see how this plays out. Shorter time frames suggest possible pullback as per overbot condition.
Well using a modified version of the Cowabunga system we went short off 1.9675 off the 15min and targeting the 4h 10ema. Risking 20 pips for possible 30. not sure how to figure the R ratio on it?
this is demo as I’m trying to streamline my system. I plan to use trendlines as confirmation and divergence/ convergence. Now the 1hr just had a convergence of the ema’s with a cross. Anyway this will be first trade with this system. I’ll need to focus more on the money management of my trades and only put 1% on the line. I also think using the foundation of this system a swing trading plan using higher time frames is possible. I’m considering using a few positions to scale out and trail should price move in our favor.
I’ve been monitoring the hrly fib chart so far this session and it’s biased short now. So, i’ll be taking the next 15min cowabunga short setup. The close of the current 15min period may get me in…i will be taking half off at the standard cowabunga exit level moving stops to b/e on the rest moving the target for the remainder to the hrly fib intraday T1 around 570. This is a forward test and will be using smaller stakes.
EDIT: Now short, initial stoploss just above last 15m swing high, first target 9600, 2nd target 9575.
EDIT: Stoploss hit for -28. Momentum upside now - both the hrly fib map and cowabunga 4hr trend in agreement (if the hrly closes above 670). Will be looking for cowa 15min longs if 670 is broken.
EDIT: 17:30GMT. The 5pm cut off for cowabunga entries now passed and no long entries set up this afternoon. Perhaps tomorrow will offer better opportunities to piggyback the trend.
This is my updated hrly fib map which i will be using to guage entries tomorrow.
If 9650 can hold overnight then i’ll be looking for long cowabunga entries. An hourly close lower than 9650 from here and the bias will be short again for a while.
Looking at the charts at first glance tells me to do nothing. System is in long mode with a 80band slip off the 15m. 4h to close to resistance for me to go long unless “clean break”
Chart below shows trend status of current 4hr cowabunga setup - still long. So i’m looking for longs on the original method and if there’s an hourly close lower than 9650 i’ll be looking for a short setup off my fib variant.
EDIT: 7:25 GMT - bounce off 9650 hrly fib support level and testing resistance on that same fib. There hasn’t been a valid long cowa entry on my charts yet, even after this latest surge. There’ll always be another to catch that’s just right.
