The fate of GBPUSD. Please Help a worried soul

Hello Kashif, Your post - request for help is a really good one.

This morning on Bloomberg TV, there was an interview with Marvin Barth (Barclays FX ) which had an interesting discussion on GU. The interview is available to view, I just checked that.

There probably are rules about not posting links but this is in context to your question and is not advertisng, spam etc.

Euro Seen Weakening to $1.25 Over Year, Barth Says: Video - Bloomberg

Boom! Looks like i called this one accurately. Hope you’re out of this trade now as depending on tomorrow’s minutes, it may now be in freefall.

Thanks Pipme for backing up with the technicals.

Thanks a lot everyone for your valuable suggestions and help. The thing is I am still in the trade and my draw down is now 2700 USD. I have like 3000 USD equity left. I just cant get courage to exit the trade as I cant afford this huge loss.

[B]My only question is now according to you guys up to what value GBPUSD can fall before bouncing back?[/B]

Also say if I manually open a large volume Short position to cover my positions. Will that be a good idea since everyone is certain that GBPUSD is about to fall more?

You could end up compiling your losses…unless you are in a hurry, just stay put and maybe close part of your trades to reduce drawdown…what comes down , eventually, must go up, so let the losing trades take their natural cycle…just be prepared to wait weeks and even months… Meanwhile shave off some of the loss to regain equity and sit tight until your trading account looks stronger…

Thanks a lot for your reply bro. I am in no hurry at all but the thing is that I fear that my account will blow if it continue like this. I like the idea of closing parts of trades to get more equity. what you say shall I close half of the trades? For eample shall I close 15 volume of my 30 volume trade and so on? I posted the chart on previous page and I am sure you must have seen it so kindly please suggest how much shall I close? My main concern is to protect my account without having huge losses which I am facing now if I close all positions. all my year of profit will end up in loss and also plus 2000 USD loss too. I am not good in technical stuff so is there any way that I can know that up to what level the pair can go down maximum? I am also worried because of the expected low due to upcoming news events!

Also is it advisable that I open a large short volume position? Like 0.30 or 0.40 sell position?

Yes, maybe close some positions or take off part of the lot size from all positions…

I am only at my eighth month of live trading: I would not want to give

you the wrong advice…The rest is up to you…

Keep us informed on your decision…

Thanks a lot for the reply. Ok so are you short on GBPUSD right now or planning to go short? I am thinking to short manually and kinda hedge my nagative positions till I see a bounce back. Please advise.

I am long EUR/GBP, so I am short GBP, yes…

Ok thanks.

I closed part of my trades worth 668 USD loss. Now I have two questions:

1) I want to know that suppose if Market goes down further as expected and test the 1.63 or 1.62 level will I be able to prevent my account and stay in the market with this equity? I have deposited 2000 USD more to prevent this draw down and they will be in my account within a day or two. This is my new chart. So kindly see this chart and let me know.

Clear Large Screenshot:

2) Is it possible that GBPUSD can go below 1.63 or 1.62? I checked the previous lows and I was shocked to see that it went to 1.50 level at one point but I want to know that if thats the case here or will it go down to a maximum of 1.62 level and then bounce back.

Please Help.
Thanks a lot.

I see that you have liked some of my posts regarding the future of GBP/USD… I imagine that you will be aware of the Scottish independence referendum, which is less than a month away: Kathleen Brooks, in an interview I posted on Babypips recently, said that a ‘Yes’ vote could see GBP/USD tumble to new lows (1.61, I think)…

Hello again Kashif314, hope things go your way soon, there is an indicator, if you are not already aware of it, called conpos. This will draw a line on your chart and give you the size and the average position of all your GU trades. From that you will be able to work out by how much, different levels of GU will affect balance.

For Example conpos may tell you, you have the equivalent of 1.7 at 1.69344. It is useful when you have a spread of trades like in this situation.

Oh man that is a big shocker! I don’t know what to do? Is it advisable to go short now from 1.6614 level? I mean I am uncertain about it but I want to know how certain is this that the market will go down tomorrow rapidly after the news?

Wow, that vote is on Sep 18, the NO side are averaging a 20% lead in opinion polls so I def would not panic tomorrow morning on the basis of the Scottish vote.

The bigger immediate worry tomorrow morning is the MPC vote count which is expected at 009, that is they all voted to keep rates unchanged - so the risk to the downside is very limited on that.

Next there is FOMC - later in the day, downside and upside risk here.

Then next day is retail sales - these could be iffy, although UK has been experiencing good weather, and there has been some discounting going on (CPI down) which may help the numbers the BRC are not jumping out of their skins on their latest survey - both sides risk here also.

Thanks a lot I did manage to find it but having a hard time understanding how to use it. Can you please explain how to use it? Thanks.

Thanks a lot peterma for the info you ve posted. So there is a chance that cable can go up too? All this time all I heard is that it will go down and like the news letter sent by baby pips it also says that tomorrow it may go down steeper.

So what you say that shall I open a short position now or let my long positions opened only? I mean I am undecided because suppose if I open a short position to cover my previous negative long positions but if the pair started to move upwards than I ll be in two boats. Please advise. Here is the screenshot of my MT4:


Absolutely, Kashif, as Peterma says, do not panic about the independence vote! Also, do not look at the BoE minutes and Monetary Policy Committee vote with too much expectation: it may be a non-event! Similarly for the FOMC…

However, any bit of news can be used by the market makers to shift capitals around, not specifically in Forex but in terms of currency flows that indirectly affect your Forex trading…

If you want to see what is REALLY happening, look at the volume behind the sell-off on the 13th August (last week): it was the third HIGHEST transaction volume in FXCM’s records from the GBP/USD since 1993, on that daily red candle (sell-off) from Carney’s BoE inflation report… All it took was a bunch of dovish adjectives and… BAM! The markets were just looking for a trigger… There was nothing NEW…

So do not expect too much from tomorrow… The markets may have already looked past it and discounted it… Even if the vote went 8 to 1 in favour of keeping rates unchanged for the BoE, it may even be not enough to rock this boat…


Do not SPEND MORE MONEY on GBP trades…

Sit tight and wait… See where the market goes… I know it is hard to lose money and ‘do nothing’…

What if you hedged your position by, say, selling the Pound through other pairs, e.g. GBP/JPY, GBP/NZD,

you may now have yourself having to manage short and long trades, with different sets of supporting

analysis, and opposing biases… Unless you are a regular ‘hedger’, I would not dabble at this point (although

it could work, of course)!

hello, on the conpos I am not good enough to help you load it,
I just loaded the conpos indicator onto a chart and it draws a line giving the average buy or sell line position.
on the top left of the chart it gives the amount.
If you cannot see the indicator having loaded the mql4 source file and the ex4 file
you may need to find the bit where you tick allow DLL

Whereabouts are you getting difficulties with the conpos indicator ?

Thanks a lot bro for your continuous support and help and for taking your precious time to help me. The thing is that I am on Automated system for like 8 months and never trade manually on live account because I think I am not yet ready to trade myself. My EA did good for like 8 months till this GBPUSD fall. The strategy of the EA is martingale and it just doubles the counter trend trade till its goal is reached. I always leave 2000 USD equity per pair and so far this strategy was working fine. I had some big draw downs but usually a pair bounce back after like a maximum of 400 pips but this time its not the case.

No, I never hedge manually before so I like your idea that I should stick with one side. I also acted upon your idea to close partial volumes of my opened trades which I did yesterday and took 600 USD loss to prevent future equity. So now I am doing just like you said. I have closed the EA and just watching what is going on. I am ready to put my 8 months profit at stake. I may close my positions once I reach the break even from where I started.

Today I see that the pair moves upwards a little but I am not sure if this move is a retracement before going down further or if it is finally bouncing back upwards and if the Wednesday news is already discounted. What is your opinion?

Please keep posting like you are doing right now. I am badly in need of help.

Thanks a lot.